Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[MaxQue]

Toronto suburbs are a disaster for PC. They are losing seats they held since Harris era in that area. Barrie, Burlington, Newmarket-Aurora... PC is trailing in Thornhill, Durham and Northumberland-Quinte West, too.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

And CBC just called a majority for the Libs

[Hatman 🍁]

My hunch was the NDP would lose Davenport and Trinity-Spadina, but the NDP was polling better in Toronto.

[Holmes]

Mmhmm. NDP increases its voter share compared to last time but gets trounced in Toronto. Sigh. Toronto.

[MaxQue]

Mmhmm. NDP increases its voter share compared to last time but gets trounced in Toronto. Sigh. Toronto.

If they kept their ground in Toronto, they would have tied PC.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

NDP should also at least maintain its overall seat share, shouldn't it? I know they've picked up a few seats in by-elections but everything I'm seeing has indicated that they had twenty-one seats going into this election and will have between twenty-one and twenty-three or so coming out of it. Granted that's more than a little disappointing for a--what, four-point?--positive swing, especially since the Liberals are headed to a majority with a lower share of the vote than in 2011.

[Hatman 🍁]

22 seats. Losess in Trinity-Spadina and Davenport, gains Windsor West and Sudbury. Net gain of one seat. (But a gain of 5 from last election). I'd say a successful night for Andrea, but her taking votes away from the Tories helped the Liberals big time in swing ridings. Weird to say that.

[Marokai Backbeat]

The overall increase in share for the NDP is not-insignificant, but if the NDP is going to ever have a future in government, they need to stop the slide in Toronto. Horwath is charismatic, debates well, and is well liked publicly, and I think the NDP would be foolish to consider getting rid of her, but her obsession with a populist tone has been a mistake for their long-term fortunes.

As for the PCs: lol.

[DC Al Fine]

Toronto suburbs are a disaster for PC. They are losing seats they held since Harris era in that area. Barrie, Burlington, Newmarket-Aurora... PC is trailing in Thornhill, Durham and Northumberland-Quinte West, too.

Goodbye Hudak.

[Holmes]

NDP with a good showing in Brampton-Springdale. I know they targeted that area but I guess it wasn't enough against the Liberal deluge. Decent showing in York-West and London North Centre too, fwiw.

[MaxQue]

French TV mentioed Vic Fedeli, MPP for Nipissing as a leadership hopeful (he is a very popular former mayor of North Bay).

If we take the candidates last time, Frank Klees retired (and his seat was lost) and Randy Hillier is still a joke. It would leave Christine Elliot, but I suppose she might pass as she lost her husband recently (Jim Flaherty).

[Holmes]

French TV mentioed Vic Fedeli, MPP for Nipissing as a leadership hopeful (he is a very popular former mayor of North Bay).

If we take the candidates last time, Frank Klees retired (and his seat was lost) and Randy Hillier is still a joke. It would leave Christine Elliot, but I suppose she might pass as she lost her husband recently (Jim Flaherty).

Another one from North Bay?

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of Nipissing, the NDP is in 2nd there! Who would've thought? Nice of you to finally join the North, guys.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP elected in 20, still leading in Parkdale-High Park and Beaches-East York, but they're close. :S

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, the NDP finished 2nd in Brampton West and Brampton-Springdale.

Lots of 2nd place finishes I'm thinking...

[Hatman 🍁]

Beaches flips back to the Liberals

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hilariously awful PC showing; third place could beckon next time unless they change their ways (being semi-serious). Pretty good for the NDP, but they really need to remember that it is possible to appeal to both Windsor and inner Toronto: the results there are a disaster.

[Hash]

Anyhow, all LV models - from Ipsos (massive overestimation of Tories), EKOS (overestimation of Grits) and so forth - were loads of crap.

[Holmes]

Beaches flips back to the Liberals

Difference is 40 votes with 80 polls still outstanding. Wait it out. It's not Davenport-level lost.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Congrats Hash.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, much of inner Toronto is still way too early to safely call. Still, it is interesting that the NDP have polled better in York West than Trinity-Spadina; the nature of the provincial dipper vote in the city has shifted considerably of late.

[MaxQue]

Speaking of Nipissing, the NDP is in 2nd there! Who would've thought? Nice of you to finally join the North, guys.

I have family there and the city is quickly changing. I think than NDP can take it once Fedelo retires.

Sudbury is a NDP gain. Northumberland-Quinte West is a Liberal gain. Same thing in Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

[DC Al Fine]

Pretty good for the NDP, but they really need to remember that it is possible to appeal to both Windsor and inner Toronto: the results there are a disaster.

Indeed. Their populism seems to be a direct trade. Southwestern ON for downtown TO.

[Holmes]

Yes, much of inner Toronto is still way too early to safely call. Still, it is interesting that the NDP have polled better in York West than Trinity-Spadina; the nature of the provincial dipper vote in the city has shifted considerably of late.

At least the York-West vote makes sense and is just following the NDP "trend" (for lack of a better word) in that riding. The downtown area's shift against the NDP is quite strange and disappointing, though. The NDP wasn't too hot in its best Scarborough ridings tonight, either.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, lesson for the Tories: announce major cuts after the election. More seriously, I don't know why people still announce big policy initiatives during campaigns. I mean it worked so well for John Tory & Stephane Dion