Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Citizen Hats]

Global toronto's poll-by-poll map of Ontario 2011http://globalnews.ca/news/1306656/ontarios-voting-again-here-are-2011-election-results-poll-by-poll/

[Citizen Hats]

If any of the 3 leaders personally campaigns, it'll be Trudeau.

I would think he wouldn't want to be within a bargepole of an unpopular provincial party if he could avoid it.

and in the grand scheme of things, an OLP failure frees up a lot of the Liberal labour force for 2015

[Citizen Hats]

First Forum poll: 38/33/22/6. Not that different from their last poll.

As usual their seat projection model is totally preposterous - there is no way whatsoever that the the Liberals could remain the largest party if they trail the PCs in the province wide popular vote by 5 points. I think they have a big their model that they refuse to acknowledge or fix because it is nonsensical...yet of course the Toronto Star (who's payroll ought to be classified as a Liberal party campaign expense) play up this kooky model because it fits in with their strategy.

A proportional swing only puts the Liberals four seats back

[Citizen Hats]

A little birdie told me that the EKOS poll regions follow the area codes (416, 905, 519, etc.)

Here is a map that overlays the provincial riding boundaries on the area codes.

Was the little bird Eric Grenier?

[Citizen Hats]

I've created version 1.0 of my model, inputting the EKOS numbers (putting Northumberland in the 905 and Dufferin-Caledon in 519):

Liberal: 50
PC: 36
NDP: 20
Green: 1

Gonna make some further tweaks due to a few lol-worthy results (like the Greens winning a seat) before publishing anything. I imagine once Forum releases their cross tabs it will help with some of the strange numbers, as well as indicate a closer race.

Sounds fairly similar to mine.  I would regard it as strange that green would win a seat under those numbers, I just imagine that those numbers will go away. 

[Citizen Hats]

Forum, projected

[Citizen Hats]

It's a mechanical projection from 2011.  Also, the Tories are polling high and the NDP polling low in 'Northern Ontario' which might cause a populist vote split for the Liberals to exploit

[Citizen Hats]

You do realize Forum's "Northern Ontario" includes all of the 705, right?

Oh, and the Liberals currently have Vaughan, so no surprise there.

yes. I supect what's happening is that the Tories are creaming central Ontario, and doing normal in the actual North, and that's what pulls the projection this way

[Citizen Hats]

maybe they just looked at their riding by riding results form their poll with horrific margins of error?  Forum's projections always seem off

[Citizen Hats]

Could TJB be an Ungava-type upset?

me thinks it's overspill from Tories polling well and the NDP not polling well south of North Bay, which shares an area code with the North.

[Citizen Hats]

you can recount the seat totals, a if you're goal is to project winners, they are likely to win

[Citizen Hats]

From the LG's Twitter feed: what a writ looks like. 214 of them.

Why 214 of them?

[Citizen Hats]

From the LG's Twitter feed: what a writ looks like. 214 of them.

Why 214 of them?

2 copies for each seat?


Would that imply that Her Majesty has to sign 1300 of them when the UK has an election?

[Citizen Hats]

+1000, the Star's being itself as usual. More examples: Harper allegedly "smirking" in their private meeting on pensions... with Wynne herself as the source.

And people think Sun is bad

It is. Us poor dippers have no newspaper to read

The Daily Worker's still publishing aren't they?

[Citizen Hats]

Some riding polls conducted by Oracle:

Sudbury:
NDP: 31.8
Lib: 26
PC: 15.2
Grn: 2.5
Undecided: 24.4

Sault Ste. Marie:
Lib: 27.5
NDP: 20.3
PC: 11.6
Grn: 4.3
Undecided: 36.2

No surprises. Cue Al with his concerns about local polling blah blah blah

im told its hard to poll rural route addreses

[Citizen Hats]

... Not to mention that I doubt Thatcher was much of a fan of a lot of the policies that Blair pursued whilst in office.

Didn't Thatcher call Blairism her finest achievement?

[Citizen Hats]

Anyone know what Ipsos uses as their region definitions?

I emailed the vice president. He replied that 'Sam will tell you' which I presume will happen in a business day or two

[Citizen Hats]

If the Liberals are just the same as the NDP, then what's going to stop voters from leaving the Libs for the NDP en masse then? The Liberals have all the baggage associated with them. The NDP? Well, Bob Rae was a long time ago.

When have the Liberals tried to be 'just the same' 

there's the whole kitchen-table thing which I think the Liberals have notably not emulated

[Citizen Hats]

Scaring progressives into voting Liberal is the only card they have at the moment. It's tried and true though, and is working in at least Toronto, where it will hurt the NDP more than the Tories.

Ask people to consider possible outcomes when they vote? How terrible of them

[Citizen Hats]

It's like 2006 all over again, except this time the Liberal leader is decidedly not the most right-wing Federal Liberal Leader in generations

[Citizen Hats]

I don't think that last 8 years proves the Liberals wrong.  Oh to consider all the nice things we could have had...

[Citizen Hats]

I don't think that last 8 years proves the Liberals wrong.  Oh to consider all the nice things we could have had...

Suggesting that McGuinty was right wing? He was more of a Libertarian's night mare.

I wasn't saying he was. I was referring to 2006 Federal

[Citizen Hats]

Anyone know what Ipsos uses as their region definitions?

I emailed the vice president. He replied that 'Sam will tell you' which I presume will happen in a business day or two

Did you ever get a response to this?

They break ontario by postal code

[Citizen Hats]

Anyone know what Ipsos uses as their region definitions?

I emailed the vice president. He replied that 'Sam will tell you' which I presume will happen in a business day or two

Did you ever get a response to this?

They break ontario by postal code

They have more regions than postal codes regions...

Am I right to assume that when they say 416 and 905 they are referring to the area codes, and the rest is divided by postal code (eg "Central" is everything in L that is not in the 905)?

What I mean is that the regions are defined by postal codes. I've sent you the file on FB

It appears that 416 and 905 are used in their vernacular sense, (somewhat)

[Citizen Hats]

The bizarre world of  how Ipsos cuts up Ontario (a bit clearer than Hatman's)