Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

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Haven't we agreed that pollsters can't do seat projections for sh**t? Especially as far as the ONDP is concerned...

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I'm extremely pessimistic about all of this. We'll probably end up with Premier Hudak.

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I assume the election will take place under the old boundaries?

Why wouldn't they? There's been no redistribution at the provincial level.

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Weighted / unweighted

Greenies 79% / 79%
NDP 74% / 76%
Libs 62% / 65%
Purgatories 34% / 37%

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Looks like I'll be voting Liberal again. I really don't want to (especially because my vote will be going directly to Charles Sousa, the architect of that horrible budget), but you don't create jobs by cutting 100,000 people from the workforce and slashing funding for vital projects that spur economic growth in the private sector.

Gah.

Build me an LRT in Mississauga and I'll be happy.

Good man. Hudak is a lunatic.

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A Hudak government is going to be absolutely atrocious, although that's been painfully obvious for years now. The guy is a lunatic.

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Forum can't do seat predictions for sh**t and whoever does them needs to be executed asap, but it isn't that bad of a poster. It's record isn't perfect or great, but I don't see it as any worse than most pollsters (and probably better than a few of them). I don't see what's up with the weird hateboners for them.

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No money for kids, teachers, seniors or post-sec students, but there's definitely money for tax breaks for TEH JOB CREATORS!

So the job creation will mostly be some jobs in Mickey Dees or Timmies.

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The PC platform is truly frightening stuff for a half-public servant/half-liberal arts student like me. They basically want us to go die.

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The 'Ottawa Sun' (I only picked up the trash because I was waiting for a bus) reported that Abacus has a new poll showing the Libs +7 with all voters and +2 with LV. Perhaps all hope is not lost.

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How on earth is Hudak winning? He's basically reciting his same old platitudes, like a tape recorder. Although, I suppose, with his fake smile and lies, the average moron voter will love it. Ugh.

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Who do you think's winning Hash? Anyways, I don't think anyone moved the needle.

All fairly mediocre. Wynne is doing well but she's taking heavy fire and isn't excellent at fighting, also comes off as angry (if I was in her spot, I'd be angry too, but); Horwath is decent but fairly wooden; Hudak is reciting platitudes in every question.

How on earth is Hudak winning? He's basically reciting his same old platitudes, like a tape recorder. Although, I suppose, with his fake smile and lies, the average moron voter will love it. Ugh.

Try watching the debate without bias, maybe? Obviously what is coming out of his mouth is BS, but that's not the point.

Everyone has a bias, so let's not pretend otherwise. I hate and fear Hudak with a passion, so it's admittedly hard for me to judge him more objectively, but I'm not an idiot, so I realize that his message might work for some voters.

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Peoples: Stop reading newspaper editorials and comment pieces. Your life will be so much better and just as fulfilling.

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Well, we had the NDP at 17% only a few days ago.

Here's EKOS's daily tracking numbers:

PC: 35.5 (+0.6)
Lib: 34.2 (+0.3)
NDP: 20.5 (n/c)
Grn: 7.4 (-1.0)
Oth: 2 (n/c)

Weirdly, EKOS' LV numbers show a strong Grit lead of ~5pts. While Ipsos tells us that LVs are way more Tory.

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I'm very cautiously optimistic, but I always fear a bad surprise. I would think that the Liberals will hold my riding (Ott-Orleans); although I didn't campaign for them this year, I have the feeling that they had a strong ground-game based on the number of times they contacted me and some of the various things I've inferred from emails from the campaign. And from a very micro-level and anecdotal observation, a few houses in my area which in the past didn't have lawn signs had Liberal signs this year.

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Glorious news. Thank you, Ontario.

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I would think that the Liberals will hold my riding (Ott-Orleans); although I didn't campaign for them this year, I have the feeling that they had a strong ground-game based on the number of times they contacted me and some of the various things I've inferred from emails from the campaign. And from a very micro-level and anecdotal observation, a few houses in my area which in the past didn't have lawn signs had Liberal signs this year.

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Anyhow, all LV models - from Ipsos (massive overestimation of Tories), EKOS (overestimation of Grits) and so forth - were loads of crap.

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... and Hudak is out. Good riddance to trash.

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lol

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lol fedora dude at the NDP place:

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Cambridge, another Liberal gain- has never gone Liberal in its history.

Defeating the guy who co-wrote a public admin textbook of mine.

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Wait... there was a positive swing to the Tories in Downtown Toronto?

The Tories had already absolutely bombed in Toronto in 2011, courtesy of Hudak.