Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[MaxQue]

I see than Hudak continues to be an liability.

[MaxQue]

And it doesn't look like if someone will get a majority, but I'm not on the ground, so, I might be biaised.

[MaxQue]

Or simply than in every election, Nanos has an anti-NDP lean until a few days before the election.

[MaxQue]

Could TJB be an Ungava-type upset?

No. Ungava had a Liberal base in the Native reservations and Inuit villages. I suspect than much was up to differential turnout. TJB doesn't have any specific PC base, in my view.

[MaxQue]

The PC's "base" in TJB is Timmins. But it's not much of a base for the party in the least. They'd have more luck trying to get Kenora.

I thought of writing that, but it's not really a PC base. It's less NDP-friendly than the rest of the riding, but not a PC base.

[MaxQue]

Wasn't aware I lived in Ontario.

[MaxQue]

Some riding polls conducted by Oracle:

Sudbury:
NDP: 31.8
Lib: 26
PC: 15.2
Grn: 2.5
Undecided: 24.4

Sault Ste. Marie:
Lib: 27.5
NDP: 20.3
PC: 11.6
Grn: 4.3
Undecided: 36.2

No surprises. Cue Al with his concerns about local polling blah blah blah

im told its hard to poll rural route addreses

Does Sudbury and SSM have many rural people? Both are mostly urban.

[MaxQue]

I always felt bad for Eves. He was stuck with Harris' mess and doomed since the day he was elected as PC leader.

[MaxQue]

Why does Hudak wants to create mass unemployment?

[MaxQue]

Sid Ryan is releasing our internal polls I see.

Internal polls for the OFL or does he have a mole at Ekos giving him scoops on what Ekos is doing for itself?

I don't see why Ekos would waste money doing a poll than nobody wants to buy, unless they want to go bankrupt.

[MaxQue]

Scaring progressives into voting Liberal is the only card they have at the moment. It's tried and true though, and is working in at least Toronto, where it will hurt the NDP more than the Tories.

Ask people to consider possible outcomes when they vote? How terrible of them

We can also say than Wynne is too unpopular to be reelected and than the only person being able to beat Hudak is Horwarth. It's another possible outcome.

[MaxQue]

The PC candidate in Timmins-James Bay doesn't even speak French...

Oy vey.

If he wants to win, he needs to not only carry Timmins, but by a large margin. Everything outside of the city is francophone and native.

That said, people are tired of Gilles. I don't blame them. He's a good MP, but it's been 24 years. He'll get just under 50%.

Charlie Angus doesn't speak French though.

Federally, Kapuskasing, Hearst and the surrounding Francophone communities are not part of Timmins-James Bay.  Provincially, they are. 

Good point, but Timmins has some French enclaves.

My father had to work in Timmins last week and he had no trouble when talking French. He also reports lots of signs for Gilles Brison, which he presumed to be for NDP (signs being orange).

[MaxQue]

The PC candidate in Timmins-James Bay doesn't even speak French...

Oy vey.

If he wants to win, he needs to not only carry Timmins, but by a large margin. Everything outside of the city is francophone and native.

That said, people are tired of Gilles. I don't blame them. He's a good MP, but it's been 24 years. He'll get just under 50%.

Charlie Angus doesn't speak French though.

One could hope, than given the changes in the caucus caused by 2011 election, than he is taking French courses.

[MaxQue]

No money for kids, teachers, seniors or post-sec students, but there's definitely money for tax breaks for TEH JOB CREATORS!

dear lord

Well, kids and teachers aren't giving money to PC, you see.

[MaxQue]

Sid Ryan is releasing some more EKOS internals:



The "original assessment" was actually the one I provided to them

Well, technically, if he paid for them, aren't those his internals?

[MaxQue]

The PC platform is truly frightening stuff for a half-public servant/half-liberal arts student like me. They basically want us to go die.

Well, it's modern conservatism. Taking money from everyone to give it to their donators.

[MaxQue]

Eddie Francis eh? I wonder if he could even win one of the Windsor ridings. When was the last time a Windosr riding went Tory? the 60s?

Provincially, they won a by-election in 1964 in Windsor-Sandwich.

[MaxQue]

Could Bruce Hyer defection have an effect on NDP in Thunder Bay?

[MaxQue]

Could Bruce Hyer defection have an effect on NDP in Thunder Bay?

Nah, if there is one thing all polls agree on it's that support for the Green Party is non existent in Thunder Bay!

Well, I meant it could have decredibilized NDP in Thunder Bay. Greens are obviously weak there, the main local industries aren't green-friendly at all.

[MaxQue]

I suppose the safe bet is "no majority, hung assembly"?

[MaxQue]

NDP gains Oshawa with an big majority. Wierd. 48-30 over PC right now, 2192 majority. Wierd, wierd, wierd.

[MaxQue]

It's a disaster for PC. 30%, 28 seats right now.

[MaxQue]

Toronto suburbs are a disaster for PC. They are losing seats they held since Harris era in that area. Barrie, Burlington, Newmarket-Aurora... PC is trailing in Thornhill, Durham and Northumberland-Quinte West, too.

[MaxQue]

Mmhmm. NDP increases its voter share compared to last time but gets trounced in Toronto. Sigh. Toronto.

If they kept their ground in Toronto, they would have tied PC.

[MaxQue]

French TV mentioed Vic Fedeli, MPP for Nipissing as a leadership hopeful (he is a very popular former mayor of North Bay).

If we take the candidates last time, Frank Klees retired (and his seat was lost) and Randy Hillier is still a joke. It would leave Christine Elliot, but I suppose she might pass as she lost her husband recently (Jim Flaherty).