Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[mileslunn]

Here is my thinking so far and considering how inaccurate polls have been of recent never mind changes during elections, things could turn out differently.

416

Liberals have a solid lead here but PCs in the upper 20s and NDP in the 20s.  It should go predominately Liberal although the NDP should win some seats in the downtown core while if the Tories can move up a few percentage points they could pick up a few suburban seats, otherwise areas that went Tory federally and Rob Ford municipally.  As for riding specifics, here are one's I can see changing

If the PCs get some momentum or Liberals crater: Etobicoke Centre, York Centre, Willowdale, Scarborough-Agincourt

Likely to swing back Liberal but could stay PC: Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Vulnerable NDP ridings to Liberals: Davenport and Trinity-Spadina

Possible NDP Pick ups: York South Weston and Scarborough-Rouge River, while if things go really well, York West and Scarborough Southwest.

All ridings not mentioned should stay the same unless something dramatic happens.

905 suburbs

Most polls show the PCs slightly ahead but the 905 belt is really the key on who wins.  The Liberals need to keep the PCs to the fringe while the PCs need to move inwards towards Toronto if they want to win.

Solid PC: Durham, Whitby-Oshawa, Thornhill, and York Simcoe

Likely PC unless they screw up: Burlington, Halton, and Newmarket-Aurora

Solid Liberal unless they crater: Pickering-Scarborough East, Markham-Unionville, Vaughan, Brampton West, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Streetsville.

Vulnerable Liberal ridings that could go PC: Ajax-Pickering, Richmond Hill, Oak Ridges-Markham, Brampton-Springdale, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, and Oakville

Likely PC but could go NDP: Oshawa

Likely NDP: Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Hamilton-Niagara

Solid NDP: Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, and Welland (the PCs could be competitive here, but I would be shocked if they actually win)

Solid PC: Niagara West-Glanbrook

Likely PC but could go NDP: Niagara Falls

Liberal/PC tossup: St. Catharines

Leans Liberal but could go PC: Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale

Central Ontario

This area is solidly PC, but the definition is somewhat unclear, so I will just list the ridings below.

Solid PC: Simcoe North, Simcoe-Grey, Dufferin-Caledon, and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

Likely PC unless they screw-up: Barrie

Southwestern Ontario

The Liberals are in big trouble here, while the NDP was strong for a while but seems to have faded since Hudak dropped his right to work proposals.  Most polls show the PCs ahead never mind this area is fairly rural thus would naturally tilt PC although not as heavily as Central or Eastern Ontario

Solid PC: Wellington-Halton Hills, Kitchener-Conestoga, Haldimand-Norfolk, Perth-Wellington, Oxford, Huron-Bruce, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Chatham-Kent-Essex, and Sarnia-Lambton

Solid Liberal unless they crater: Guelph and London North Centre

Solid NDP: London-Fanshawe, Windsor-Tecumseh, and Windsor West

Likely PC unless NDP gets a lot of momentum: Cambridge

PC if centre-left splits, Liberal if its united: Kitchener Centre (otherwise the non-right wing vote would have to coalesce around the Liberals)

Leans PC, but could go Liberal and possibly even NDP: Brant

NDP if Liberals collapse, PCs if split: Kitchener-Waterloo and London West (I predict the PCs will get between 35-40% in both ridings so how the other 60-65% split will determine who wins)

Leans NDP but could go PC: Essex

Northern Ontario

The Liberals are quite unpopular here so the NDP should gain while any Liberal holds will be due to popularity of the incumbent not support of the party.  The PCs will hold the two seats they hold, but highly unlikely to pick up any other.  The federal Conservatives did a bit better due to opposition of the gun registry which was widely unpopular in Northern Ontario, but this is not an issue in the provincial election, so those who normally didn't vote Tory, but did just to get the gun registry scrapped will return to traditional voting patterns.

Solid NDP: Kenora-Rainy River, Timmins-James Bay, Nickel Belt, Algoma-Manitoulin, and Timiskming Cochrane.

Leans NDP:  Sudbury

Slight edge to NDP over Liberals: Thunder Bay-Atikokan and Thunder Bay-Superior North

Solid Liberal: Sault Ste. Marie

Solid PC: Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka

Eastern Ontario

The PCs have a strong lead here, but unlike other parts of Ontario due to lack of manufacturing base, they tend to run up the margins in the rural areas more so than other parts of the province.  This is the one area where I think they could get over 60% in some ridings.  Nonetheless there are a couple of marginal Liberal ridings that could swing PC, while NDP will be lucky to win any seats

Solid PC: Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Nepean-Carleton, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Leeds-Grenville, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, and Prince Edward-Hastings.

Solid Liberal: Ottawa South and Ottawa-Vanier

Likely Liberal but could go NDP: Ottawa Centre and Kingston & the Islands

Likely PC unless they screw up: Northumberland-Quinte West

Bellwether ridings: Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Liberals if left unite, PC if split: Peterborough

[mileslunn]

I can see Mulcair also campaigning, but definitely not Harper.

Considering how Harper's numbers are lousy, I suspect he will stay out.  Besides a Liberal win would actually help the Tories federally in 2015 as there will be a balanced budget federally, while the deficit is growing provincially and many people on Justin Trudeau's team are from the Ontario Liberals.  By contrast Hudak will likely have to make some tough choices if elected which will be unpopular initially and likely to hurt the Tories federally at least in the swing ridings.  Lets remember Ontario, more often than not votes differently federally and provincially.  The base of each party votes the same way but the swing votes tend to go Tory one way and Liberal the other.  Now individual MPs campaigning might help in a few cases.  Even if Hudak wins a majority, I would be surprised if he wins any riding that didn't go Tory federally so in many ways the 73 seats they won federally is sort of the best case scenario for the Ontario PCs, although they can afford to miss 19 of them and still win a majority.

Considering Justin Trudeau's popularity, I am pretty sure he will campaign to some degree although I am not sure how much different it will make.

Thomas Mulcair will probably endorse Howarth but not campaign too heavily although I am sure the 22 MPs will be active.

[mileslunn]

First Forum poll: 38/33/22/6. Not that different from their last poll.

As usual their seat projection model is totally preposterous - there is no way whatsoever that the the Liberals could remain the largest party if they trail the PCs in the province wide popular vote by 5 points. I think they have a big their model that they refuse to acknowledge or fix because it is nonsensical...yet of course the Toronto Star (who's payroll ought to be classified as a Liberal party campaign expense) play up this kooky model because it fits in with their strategy.

Fully agree.  If you look at the federal results, this is pretty similar to the 2008 federal election in Ontario where it was 51 Cons, 38 Lib, and 17 NDP so while not likely to be exactly the same, it would probably be along that line.  As for big margins in rural areas, that's a bit exaggerated.  The only rural ridings I expect you will see a strong PC jump is where they unseated a Liberal cabinet minister who is not running again like Perth-Wellington and Prince Edward-Hastings.  Southwestern Ontario has a lot of blue collar towns so I suspect in the rural ridings PC support will be in the 40s or low 50s at tops which is not far off what they got federally.  Only in Eastern Ontario will they rack up big margins which they already did last time around.  Ottawa and the surrounding area is quite political and there are far fewer swing voters than other areas meaning swings tend to be smaller than province wide as well as turnout is often over 70% so its less of an issue of who does and doesn't show up.  Results federally in this area have been pretty much the same in 2006, 2008, and 2011 despite swings elsewhere.  By contrast the 905 belt tends to swing in whatever direction the province does but at a greater magnitude.  The PCs are hated in downtown Toronto so they will got in the teens or single digits here meaning few wasted votes.

As a side note, some assume the PCs will get 70% or 80% in rural Ontario, which is nonsense.  Right wing parties only get those numbers in rural areas that have very low population densities.  In Canada that would be the Prairies while US it would be the plains and Mountain West (I ignored the South as voting is very racially polarized there), while in the rural counties of the Great Lakes or Northeast, the GOP usually only gets in the 50s or 60s whose population densities are more in line with rural Ontario.  Likewise in Britain, the Conservatives seldom get above 60% and almost never over 70% and in fact in Western Europe, even in rural areas you don't see right wing parties racking up ridiculous margins like you do in the Prairies or parts of the US and rural Western Europe has similar density to rural Ontario if not slightly higher.  Otherwise a riding with a density of 50 people/square km is quite different from one at 5 people per square km.  Otherwise I could see the Liberals losing by one or two points in the popular vote and winning seat wise, but if the PCs are five points ahead, they will win the most seats.

[mileslunn]

You think Windsor West is solid NDP?

Okay maybe not, but the current MPP is hardly a high profile like Sandra Paputello and they did get slaughtered in the neighbouring riding in the by-election.  My understanding why Howarth went is her caucus from Northern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario are aware how unpopular the Liberals are in those regions so feel they have every reason to gain.  The main thing holding her back the last two times was her Toronto caucus was nervous, but I imagine she found a way to persuade them as well as of her Toronto MPPs, all of them come from ridings where the PCs are non-existent so there is no need to vote strategically.  If the PCs win any seats in the 416, it will come at the expense of the Liberals and it will be in the suburban parts where the NDP is for the most part quite weak.

[mileslunn]

You think Windsor West is solid NDP?

Okay maybe not, but the current MPP is hardly a high profile like Sandra Paputello and they did get slaughtered in the neighbouring riding in the by-election.  My understanding why Howarth went is her caucus from Northern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario are aware how unpopular the Liberals are in those regions so feel they have every reason to gain.  The main thing holding her back the last two times was her Toronto caucus was nervous, but I imagine she found a way to persuade them as well as of her Toronto MPPs, all of them come from ridings where the PCs are non-existent so there is no need to vote strategically.  If the PCs win any seats in the 416, it will come at the expense of the Liberals and it will be in the suburban parts where the NDP is for the most part quite weak.

I think it's a toss up at this point. Calling it solid is a little presumptive.

Also, I'm not sure about your call regarding Scarborough-Agincourt. The riding went Liberal even during the Mike Harris era, so why do you think it will go Tory now? Is the Chinese community switching to the conservatives like in BC? Do you think they may feel uncomfortable with the Liberals being led by a lesbian?

That reminds me of the OLP leadership race. Looks like Agincourt backed Sousa:

Scarborough-Agincourt is a long shot but the reason I mention it as after York Centre, it was the PCs second best showing in the 416 and they only lost by 11 points which is not an impossible gap to overcome.  Also as mentioned the Chinese generally tend to be somewhat more fiscally conservative than say the South Asian or Black community who are more left leaning thus why the Tories might struggle more with them.  In addition Jim Karygiannis as much as he was a sleazball really knew how to win amongst his constituents and had he not run I suspect the results would have been a three way race much like Scarborough Centre and Scarborough-Guildwood in the last federal election.

At the same time I still think it will stay Liberal, I am only saying that if the PCs get above 30% in the 416 area code this would be one of the first to fall, but for now I call it for the Liberals.  Also as much as Hudak is like Mike Harris I don't think you can assume the results will necessarily duplicate.  Mike Harris got close to 60% in the 905 belt and even if that swings in the PC's favour, there is no way Hudak will get anywhere remotely close to what Mike Harris got in this area even in ridings like Burlington, Oakville, and Mississauga South where the demographics haven't changed much.  By contrast Mike Harris struggled in rural Southwestern Ontario which I think Hudak with the exception of Essex which is a mix of suburban and rural, Hudak has locked up. 

[mileslunn]

Weird. My projection has the NDP with a healthy lead in Timmins, but I'm factoring in the EKOS poll which had the Liberals ahead in the 705.

Weird results I have in my projection:

Barrie going Liberal (due to EKOS poll)
Scarborough-Guildwood going PC (close by-election skewing my numbers)
Ottawa South going PC (ditto- but plausible)
Kenora-Rainy River going PC (due to EKOS's very small 807 sample)

Also, I suspect Sudbury will go NDP due to no Liberal incumbent, but my model has the Liberal ahead at this point. Once we know who the candidates are, I will have a better idea of how to tweak my model.

Barrie is fairly solidly Tory so unless Hudak does something incredibly stupid I am pretty sure it will stay PC. 

Scarborough-Guildwood went Liberal federally so the Liberals would have to see an even bigger implosion to lose this.  Its only shown as competitive due to the by-election results which skew things  slightly.  For example I don't think Etobicoke-Lakeshore is a lock for the PCs, I could easily see it swinging back to the Liberals.

Ottawa South - This is where uniform swings don't work.  I've noticed in the Ottawa ridings, probably because its a political team, riding results tend to be very consistent election after election.  The Liberals never fall below 40% even in a bad election and never get over 50% even in a landslide one while the PCs always stay above 30% no matter how bad they do and seem unable to crack the 40% mark no matter how well they do while the NDP is always under 20%.

Sudbury could stay Liberal, but if an election were called today, I think the NDP would have an edge there.

The problem with the Northern Ontario is areas south of North Bay have very different voting patterns than areas north of it.  So the results need to be taken with caution as the PCs are probably in the upper 40s and maybe even low 50s in the Barrie to North Bay area which is normally considered Central not Northern Ontario while they are probably in the 20s in what is normally thought of as Northern Ontario, otherwise north of North Bay.  By contrast Central Ontario asides from the 905 belt is one of the NDP's weakest areas whereas by contrast Northern Ontario is one of its strongest.  The Liberals on the other hand are fairly evenly distributed so if they are only at 30% they are looking at close to a route.

[mileslunn]

Forum, projected

... suspect; The Liberals win back Vaughan? The NDP losses Kenora-Rainy River and Timmins-James Bay? Those I doubt seriously

There is no way the PCs will win Guelph, that's a university town while London North Centre is quite tough unless the centre-left splits perfectly as well as Deb Matthews despite her controversy elsewhere is well liked in her riding.  St. Catharines barely went Liberal last time around so although Jim Bradley's popularity may have carried him through the Harris years, I am not so sure it will work this time around.  Also Forum and 308 seem show a stronger swing towards the PCs in the 416 area code than 905.  Usually PC support is 15-20 points lower in the 416 than 905 and usually the best 416 riding is only around 5 points better for the PCs than the worse 905 riding.  In addition I've noticed both provincially and federally, usually the Conservative's best riding in popular vote in the 416 tends to closely match their overall province wide average.

Kenora-Rainy River was only close last time around as it lacked an incumbent, but with an incumbent now, the NDP should hold this.  Federally the Tories won largely due to the opposition of the carbon tax in 2008, while held this due to both incumbency as well as opposition to the gun registry.  I suspect 5-10% of voters in Northern Ontario (I mean true north not central) voted Tory federally for that reason alone and wouldn't have otherwise so I suspect provincially they will follow their usual voting patterns.  In Timmins-James Bay, apparently the PCs and Liberals cut a deal that the Liberals would run a paper candidate and instead help the PCs since they thought by uniting behind one party they could unseat Gilles Bisson.  If it didn't work then, it probably won't this time.  In many ways what you saw there is not too different than what you have in BC where the Blue Liberals and Conservatives unite under the BC Liberals to keep the NDP out.  Also in Sault Ste. Marie you saw this in the other direction so for whatever reason it seems in some ridings the swing is mostly between the PCs and Liberals not Liberals/NDP.

[mileslunn]

My understanding is while the governing party gets first crack at forming, usually its customary if the government wins fewer seats than another party for the leader to visit the lieutenant governor and resign.  For example in both 1979 and 2006 federally, the Liberals in theory would have been given first go at trying to form a government, but in neither case it happened as Trudeau in 1979 and Martin in 2006 submitted their resignations to the GG and thus opening the way for Joe Clark in 1979 and Stephen Harper in 2006 to form government.  Now to be fair there are some differences as in 1979, the PCs were only six seats shy of a majority and there were six Socred MPs who likely wouldn't have supported the Liberals.  In 2006, The BQ likely wouldn't have backed the Liberals, whereas in the next election its probably fair to say the NDP would prefer a Liberal government over PC.  The only barrier is due to how long the Liberals have been in power and the amount of baggage they've taken it might just set up the conditions to ensure the PCs win a majority next time around while if they pass the throne speech and let the PCs introduce a budget which will include some unpopular spending cuts there will be less of a backlash or they could go to another election in which things would be more favourable for them.

[mileslunn]

Pension FAQ.

I like the idea behind the Liberals's plan, but the numbers are sketchy. Take the $45k example. How do they think they can fund 60% of a CPP payout on 40% of the CPP contribution rate?

Definitely could be a vote winner, but could also hurt them.  Most people like the idea of more secure pensions, but if it means having over $1,000 docked from their paycheque it might be less popular.  Add to the fact many small businesses may lay off or close shop and so depending on how much noise small businesses make this could have an impact.  Finally those most likely to support this are over 50 (who generally vote) and thus are close to retirement and concerned about lack of savings.  The problem is they would just pay more with little benefits as payouts are based on contributions so they wouldn't have paid in enough to get the full benefits.  Never mind because its provincial only there is the issue of those who only live part of their working life in Ontario.  The one's who will benefit most from this are those in their 20s and 30s, but that group has a low turnout as well as few people at that age are thinking much about retirement.  So it will be interesting.

As a disclosure, it won't affect me since I work in the banking industry which is under federal regulations as well as I have a workplace pension so I won't have to pay into it.  I was though worried if it impacted my company that there would be layoffs or annual salary increases would be put on hold for a while.

[mileslunn]

Mine were:

PC 65
GRN 46
LIB 43
NDP 39

Although I have the Liberal colour in my name, that's because when I signed up I mostly commented on US results where I would be a Democrat. In Canada I consider myself centre-right. The Liberals under Wynne have swung so far left they are basically in the same spot as the NDP on the spectrum. I am not quite as right wing as Hudak, but I believe in balance on the spectrum so if you swing too far one you need to balance it out the other way. The reason I only got 65 PC as I agree the deficit as a major issue and requires big spending cuts, but I unlike Hudak I am opposed to tax cuts prior to balancing the budget.

Federally I wouldn't vote Conservative though not because Harper is too right wing, but he's too autocratic. I wouldn't vote Liberal either as Justin Trudeau is a complete lightweight and is only leader because of his looks and father. I will probably vote Independent next federal election.

[mileslunn]

Mine were:

PC 65
GRN 46
LIB 43
NDP 39

Although I have the Liberal colour in my name, that's because when I signed up I mostly commented on US results where I would be a Democrat. In Canada I consider myself centre-right. The Liberals under Wynne have swung so far left they are basically in the same spot as the NDP on the spectrum. I am not quite as right wing as Hudak, but I believe in balance on the spectrum so if you swing too far one you need to balance it out the other way. The reason I only got 65 PC as I agree the deficit as a major issue and requires big spending cuts, but I unlike Hudak I am opposed to tax cuts prior to balancing the budget.

Federally I wouldn't vote Conservative though not because Harper is too right wing, but he's too autocratic. I wouldn't vote Liberal either as Justin Trudeau is a complete lightweight and is only leader because of his looks and father. I will probably vote Independent next federal election.

Independent? You better hope there's going to be an independent running.

That's federally, provincially I am voting PC, but federally I will go Independent or a third party. The Libertarian party always puts up a candidate my riding so although not nearly as ideological as them, that's probably who I will go for. I am though hoping Harper resigns and then I might vote Tory. I might also just vote for whomever is the best local candidate so definitely not Liberal since it's Adam Vaughan who I cannot stand.

[mileslunn]

There is the Georgia Straight in BC. Besides the TorStar is more about defeating the PC's so if the NDP pulls ahead of the Liberals they will change their tune quickly. They did endorse the NDP last federal election.

[mileslunn]

Anybody have a list of what ridings the leaders have visited?  I've noticed from watching past elections, what ridings the leaders visit is often a good indication of where things are close as the party's have more detailed internal polls.

[mileslunn]

New Grit anti-NDP attack ad: Horwath voted against the budget. I must admit seeing Grits run to Dippers' left is rather amusing.

I suppose they think that what appeals to downtown Toronto voters will appeal to the rest of the province?

Wynne's idea of running to the left could blow up in her face.  She's basically assuming Hudak will be so toxic to centrist voters they will hold their nose and vote Liberal.  What she is really doing is leaving the centre wide open so either those votes will go PC if they run a good campaign or if they run a lousy one, they will just stay home, which seems quite plausible.

[mileslunn]

I should also ad while I Prefer more the Bill Davis type Toryism over Harris type the reality is Davis won back then because voter turnout was around 80%, whereas today its only around 50%.  People furthest from the centre are most likely to show up so that may explain why the Liberals are swinging leftward and PCs rightward, otherwise more about appealing to the base.  I also look at the centre over a time frame so while Hudak's cuts in normal circumstances would be too extreme, the deficit is so big it requires dramatic action and we've swung too far to the left so four years of equal amount on the right would balance things out.  My main beef with Hudak is tax cuts as those should be put on hold until after the budget is balanced.  As for corporate tax cuts, I would rather do what New York State does whereby new companies in economically depressed areas get a tax holiday for the first few years to encourage start ups in areas with high unemployment rather than across the board corporate tax cuts.  If our corporate taxes were higher than most jurisdictions, I would favour cutting them, but they are not, we fall in the middle of the pack as well as anyone who has studied economics would know about the Laffer Curve whereby cutting taxes means more revenue when they are really high, but when already competitive it means less.

[mileslunn]

Whomever wins Oshawa will get more than 29% so this just might be the decided vote although I have a tough time believing the Liberals are ahead of the PCs.  Interestingly enough though it seems the NDP vote is consistent while a lot of the swing is actually Liberal-PC.  The NDP tend to win around the older part of the city where you have a lot of blue collar workers, while the PCs and to a lesser extent Liberals are more to the North in the newer subdivisions which are more 905 suburban type rather than blue collar working class.

Anyways if history is any indication, the NDP will probably have a strong second but fall short like they have in every provincial election since 1995 and federal since 2004, although maybe this might be their lucky time. 

Correct me if I am wrong, although my understanding is back in Ed Broadbent's days, many of the areas that now vote PC and Tory federally were subdivisions that didn't exist and was mostly farmland thus why the shift in voting patterns.

[mileslunn]

The left vs. right is generally overrated.  While most Canadians lean in one direction or another, you do have a fair number of voters who don't necessarily identify along ideological lines and vote for parties on different sides.  Its not like in the US where the population is quite polarized and voting does at least nowadays break heavily along ideological lines.  In terms of Ontario, Northern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario are known for a strong populist sentiment so to many there, the Liberals are seen as too Toronto centric whereas the NDP and PCs despite being ideological different don't appear as Toronto centric.  

In the 905 belt, most tend to be fiscally conservative, but socially moderate and wary of change as such why it often tends to back the incumbent and also often goes for the party who is seen as the best economic manager.  If the NDP pulls ahead of the Liberals, I could see it hurting the PCs in the 519 area code, but much like it did federally, pushing some Blue Liberals over to the PCs allowing them to dominate the 905 belt.  

Too many people seem to assume the prevailing view in Downtown Toronto is held throughout the province.  Witness the Star's Thomas Walkom's column on what Trinity-Spadina voters thought even though this is not a riding representative of what most Ontarioans think (note I live in this riding).  Essentially here, people loathe the PCs, don't like the Liberals but will vote for them to keep the PCs out and see the NDP as the least offensive but are more your urban latte sipping leftist rather than blue collar union types.  Using this riding as representative of Ontario is about as silly as assuming Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke or Hamilton Centre is representative of the province.

[mileslunn]

It's true that most Ontarians aren't ideological. They respond to populist rhetoric, which is how Mike Harris got elected, and is why Andrea Horwath is trying to use it.

I also noticed each of the leaders in hard hats too.  I wonder if they are trying to copy Christy Clark as she did that and it worked in her case.

[mileslunn]

Interesting that last time round when the election was called, people swung behind McGuinty when faced with a possible Hudak government, but this time it's different.

To early to tell.  Last time around, no one really knew that well what Hudak's ideology is, whereas this time around its much clearer so he could scare off some Red Tories who voted for him last time around.  At the same time despite the hiccups he at least has a clear platform whereas last time around no one really knew what a Hudak government would do.  Probably the biggest thing that could work in Hudak's favour is McGuinty was fairly centrist whereas Wynne has clearly swung to the left so I could either see many centrist voters going PC if they run a decent campaign or more likely just not voting at all.  In fact part of the reason I suspect the centre is vacated is all campaigns expect a low turnout so it becomes who can best motivate their base rather than appeal to the middle.

[mileslunn]

A Hudak government is going to be absolutely atrocious, although that's been painfully obvious for years now. The guy is a lunatic.

Depends on one's point of view.

If you are on the left, then yes Hudak would be a disaster as on most issues he stands apart from pretty much everything they believe in.

If in the centre, he probably seems a bit extreme and ideological, but most also realize the current out of control spending cannot go on forever and something needs to be done about the deficit.  The biggest problem here is many would argue it should be a mix of tax hikes and spending cuts, not solely spending cuts combined with tax cuts.

If on the right, you might find him a bit dorky or worry he is the wrong person to get the message out, but you are at least likely to agree with his views.

[mileslunn]

The PC candidate in Timmins-James Bay doesn't even speak French...

Oy vey.

If he wants to win, he needs to not only carry Timmins, but by a large margin. Everything outside of the city is francophone and native.

That said, people are tired of Gilles. I don't blame them. He's a good MP, but it's been 24 years. He'll get just under 50%.

Timmins-James Bay is not a riding I could realistically see the PCs winning anyways so while its not a good idea to appoint a unilingual one, they have no chance at winning here.  If their candidate in Ottawa Orleans or Glengarry-Prescott-Russell is unilingual, then it could be problematic as those have large Francophone populations and are ones where the Tories have a realistic chance at winning.

[mileslunn]

New Forum Poll:  Liberal 38%, PC 33%, NDP 21%, Green 5%

New (insane) Forum Seat Projection:  Liberal 68, PC 26, NDP 13

The raw numbers and it's actually 35 PC, not 33 seem reasonable especially with the focus on Hudak and the negative one. The seat projections though are way off. A 3 point lead won't result in a landslide majority like that. Also I would be interested in seeing the regional numbers. It seems both the Liberals and Hudak are not well liked so whichever is getting the most attention in the polls suffers. While still early, neither party seems to be able to inspire enough to realistically get a majority if you ask me.

[mileslunn]

Ipsos out with 39% PC, 30% Liberal, and 24% NDP, while amongst certain to vote its 43% PC, 31% Liberal, and 22% NDP.  Talk about polls being all over the map.  My guess is a lot of people dislike both the PCs and the Liberals so it really depends on where their focus is at that moment.  The one common theme seems to be the regional breakdowns.

416 - All polls put the Liberals in front, but interestingly enough most put the PCs in the high 20s which is actually not that bad for them.  Harper got only 31% in Toronto last federal election so considering they are likely under 15% in most downtown ridings that is enough to possibly win some suburban ridings.  The NDP vote is quite concentrated so they can still win seats even in the teens.

905 bet - All over the map, so who knows.  That being said my gut instinct tells me its probably fairly close and any poll showing more than a 10 point lead is probably off.

Southwestern Ontario - Tories out in front being in the high 30s to low 40s while except today's forum the NDP is generally fighting it out for second while Liberals struggling here.

Northern Ontario - Polls a bit messy here as some include Central Ontario (where PCs are strong) while others are only the True Northern Ontario where they are weak and the NDP by contrast is strong.  My gut instinct tells me south of North Bay it will be mostly if not entirely PC while north of North Bay it will be mostly NDP with a few Liberal ridings.

Eastern Ontario - Thats the only region where the PCs consistently poll over 40% and a few even put them above 50% (I don't think they will crack 50% as almost half the population lives in Ottawa so that will push them down a bit) while Liberals in the 30s and clear second place and NDP in teens.

[mileslunn]

I agree with much of the content of that letter, though forum's regionals are a bit different than 2011, to note by share of 2011 vote

(PC: NDP: LIB: GRN)

• Ontario:0.99: 0.92: 1.01: 1.71
• Toronto: 1.41: 0.92: 0.82: 1.68
• 905: 0.79: 1.01: 1.18: 1.06
• North: 1.01: 0.74: 1.21: 1.07
• Southwest: 0.98: 0.88: 0.90: 3.13
• East: 1.05: 0.90: 0.99: 0.95

With the Liberals polling above their vote in the 905 and the Tories polling above their vote in the City, and the North being wonky, you're bound to see different seat totals. 

That being said, I have no belief that they would be Forum different

There is no way in Hell the PCs are doing better in the 416 than 905.  Using the 416 results, the PCs would be in very good position to make a breakthrough as lets remember unlike the Liberals they will get under 15% in most downtown ridings so fewer wasted votes.  By contrast the 905 results would result in a Liberal sweep.  My guess is the PCs are probably polling under 32% in the 416 while over 29% in the 905.

[mileslunn]

There will probably be some Tory gains in Toronto. The ones they were supposed to win in 2011 before the Rob Ford scare spooked a lot of voters to the Liberals.

Not so sure about that, I though when I drove through Etobicoke-Lakeshore all the signs I saw were Doug Holyday, but probably the Liberals still haven't made them yet.  From past elections both federal and provincial, usually the Tories best riding in the 416 closely matches the provincewide average so if they win a majority, then yes they will win seats in the 416, but if not a majority then probably not.

Anyways I will be not commenting on these again until June 8th as I will be overseas for the provincial election so will miss out on a lot but still occasionally check the updates.  I've anyways pretty much decided how I will vote and if something dramatic happens I am sure I will find out when I get back.