Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

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Anyways, I hope the OLP's fate mirrors Marois'.

Though unless we're looking at a real Hudak landslide, Wynne's personally safer than Marois.

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Forum's consistently boneheaded about the "seat projection" thing, because there's more to it than rawly using "last election's figures" as a benchmark.

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Could TJB be an Ungava-type upset?

No. Ungava had a Liberal base in the Native reservations and Inuit villages. I suspect than much was up to differential turnout. TJB doesn't have any specific PC base, in my view.

It was more a star candidate + supertargeting situation in TJB last time, anyway.  (And ditto re supertargeting in Kenora-RR, all the more so as the *federal* seat of Kenora is held federally by Greg Rickford--the only Con elected in the North in 2008.)

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And on the whole, this thread demonstrates why I, personally, would rather steer clear of raw projection-type methodology, at least when it comes to Ontario--it works better in the UK and US, where political party demos and patterns have much more of a set pattern.  I like when there's wiggle-room for chance and miracles...

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The PC's "base" in TJB is Timmins. But it's not much of a base for the party in the least. They'd have more luck trying to get Kenora.

I thought of writing that, but it's not really a PC base. It's less NDP-friendly than the rest of the riding, but not a PC base.

Actually, in TJB last time, the PC "base" happened to be Kapuskasing, because Kap Mayor Al Spacek was their candidate.  (Which what I mean in emphasizing that 2011 was an exceptional circumstance.)

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Why is the NDP all of a sudden popular in Southwestern Ontario? Outside of Windsor, it's not exactly traditional NDP territory. Perhaps it's the economy?

One factor not mentioned is that Andrea Horwath herself might come across as a favourite-daughter "heartland" leader--Hamilton as a gateway to SW Ontario more than as part of the GTA commuter belt.  (Technically, Hudak might also have claim to such command--but somehow doesn't project it.)

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Somehow, second place doesn't ring true for the Grits in Oshawa.

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Re Etobicoke-Lakeshore--on reflection, it seems like Holyday ran more as a favour than as a commitment, so if he's running behind, well...he's in his 70s, after all.  (Then again, if he loses, he could return to municipal politics and win handily in his former ward)

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BC with the exception of Christy Clark, every BC Premier has been a former mayor since Bill Bennett stepped down, and Christy Clark ran for mayor of Vancouver but lost the NPA nomination to Sam Sullivan in odd happenstance. 

Huh?  Harcourt + Campbell, but I don't know of any of the rest having been a former mayor...

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Don't forget Ralph Klein who was mayor of Calgary.

And in a strange example, former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray ran for the Ontario Liberal leadership last year.

True, but he dropped out before the delegate selection meetings.

David Crombie ran for the federal PC leadership in 1983, finishing a poor 5th with just 4% support.

Alan Tonks went from being Chair of Metro Toronto to a nobody in Ottawa.   Years ago Frank magazine [Canada's version of Private Eye] phoned him a few days after the election when there was much speculation about who might be in cabinet.  They left a message to call back Eddie Goldenberg (Chretien's right-hand man) right away and left a phone number belonging to someone at Frank.  Apparently Tonks called back about 15 times in one day desperately trying to return the call and leaving endless messages about how he could be reached.

Oh, and in 1996, MPP and former Kingston Mayor John Gerretsen ran for the Ontario Liberal leadershio (McGuinty won)

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I'm also wondering if a lot of the PC "likely vote" is heavily weighted in seats where they typically already have high turnouts and massive margins--the Nepean-Carleton types of seats IOW...

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Another thing which *could* wind up shifting things in the Liberals' favour: Donatogate.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/06/05/kathleen-wynne-cartoon-toronto-sun_n_5454325.html

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Surprising to see the NDP losing in Kitchener-Waterloo, but winning in London West and Niagara Falls. I guess it has something to do with the Liberal strength in the Waterloo region picking up. I have no idea why though.

Unless it's the ghost of pre-byelection patterns rising back to the surface (i.e. K-W NDP in teens, the other two in 20s)

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Now, which always endorses the NDP, endorsed the Liberals

Actually, not quite--they had a sort of "dual editorial endorsement" from NOW's founding duo.

Alice Klein (who tends to be more the "strategic vote" advocate) spoke up on behalf of a Wynne government (which is not quite the same as an indiscriminate "Vote Liberal, wherever", even if she expressed disappointment in Horwath's tactics )
http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=198332
...while Michael Hollett stuck to cheerleeding for Horwath's populist approach
http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=198333

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My very partisan NDP friends like the Abacus poll!  I'm skeptical.

It almost suggests an CAQ-style surprise end run (though there's no obvious PQ-type force to suffer for it)

[edit: I originally said ADQ, I meant CAQ]

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For the next four years the Liberals will get to do whatever they want and the NDP will play second fiddle to the PCs in terms of media attention.

Although that'd be more the media's fault than anything.  After all, at 21 seats to 27, the NDP isn't *that* far behind PC...

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Rob Ford effect, maybe?

Relative to depressing the 2011 vote, maybe (remember: he was already Mayor then).  Who knows; maybe it's a combination of newspaper endorsements and gentrification--condos and Bay Street types, perhaps the counter-effect of Wynne's "left" platform, or perhaps the Grits already maxed out in seats like Wynne's own in 2011...

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Re Hamilton Centre: I suspect the poll-by-polls will tell the whole story--and I suspect the more "hipster-zone" downtown polls will show a more dramatic anti-Andrea swing than either the more Steeltown-ey eastern zone or the typically NDP-averse Mountain.

And re Toronto and swings to the Tories, I also find the "Steeles East" corridor noteworthy, even accounting for ScarbRR being skewed by the Raymond Cho factor--maybe it has something to do with the PCs being an "entrepreneurial party", or the bias of Chinese-language media, or cultural aversion to Wynne's sexuality--or maybe I'm just reading too much into web-thread reports of why "Asiancourt" families still like Rob Ford; nevertheless, coupled with the impending ScarbAgincourt federal byelection, I wonder if this may foretell a Chinese Toryward trend akin to that which overtook the Jewish electorate a decade ago.  (Or maybe not--we'll see.)

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Let's put things in persp[ective - while the PCs may have gained a tinty bit of ground, the most heavily Chjinese ridings in ontario - Scarborough-Agincourt, Markham-Unionville, Richmond Hill, Trinity-Spadina - all went Liberal by very large margins - we have a long wau to go before you can say that the Chinese in ontario are a Conservative voting group

If there *were* any potential tipping point, it'd be the fed byelection in Scarb-Agincourt, of course.  (*If.*)

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The unofficial poll-by-poll results were released today on the Elections Ontario website.

http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-results.aspx

Here's the first poll map:

Interesting how (a) the affluent parts of Etobicoke Centre seem even *more* PC-leaning than last time (yet the Ford family homestead poll looks to be *extra*-red, for some reason), (b) the Annex, the Gladstone/Drake-y southern tip of Davenport, Riverdale, the Beaches are all significant nodes of Grit-rather-than-NDP; sign of urban-cultural-class spurning Horwath...

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Is it just me, or were the PCs actually more efficient poll-winners in a lot of Toronto ridings in 2014 compared to 2011?

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Is it just me, or were the PCs actually more efficient poll-winners in a lot of Toronto ridings in 2014 compared to 2011?

What does that mean?

I suppose that they won more polls than their vote share would suggest?

Well, yes--in places like central Etobicoke, Forest Hill, the Willowdale-into-Scarborough axis, it'd appear that they won more whole neighbourhoods than "spot polls".  (Wonder if that's a reflection of Wynne's leftward tack or Hudak's more "economically-based" platform)

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How the heck did the NDP win the advance polls in Scarborough Rouge River?

Well I think local candidate being very tied to the local Tamil community played a part, and the NDP only lost 4% which is pretty darn good for what happened in the rest of Scarborough for the NDP.

Might there have been some "ethnicized" advance-voting rally as well?  (I've sometimes noticed this w/S Asian candidates--as well as the Jewish vote whenever an election coincides w/a holiday)

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Though even 64.3% is "low" by Islands standards--presumably the Greens bit a big chunk of that.

Well, yes--in places like central Etobicoke, Forest Hill, the Willowdale-into-Scarborough axis, it'd appear that they won more whole neighbourhoods than "spot polls".  (Wonder if that's a reflection of Wynne's leftward tack or Hudak's more "economically-based" platform)

And these blue blobs look more impressive on a map.

But they still would've been more "red-infused" in 2011--seems like a mild token weakening of the "Paul Martin Liberal" base that felt more at ease under McGuinty....

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Incidentally, Toronto Island in 2011 was 77.40% NDP, 13.70 Liberal, 5.48% Green, 3.42% PC.