Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Krago]

The Toronto Star published a Forum Research poll today that shows a very different race in Ontario.

PC 38%
Lib 31%
NDP 23%
Green 7%

[Krago]

PPM is 32 Hudak, 31 Horwath, 28 Wynne.

It's actually 32 Hudak, 31 Wynne, 28 Horwath.

[Krago]

Wynne will see the LG @ 2 - Benzie.

There are two possibilities:

(a)  She will ask him to dissolve the legislature and call an election; or
(b)  She's going to wipe all the incriminating e-mails off his hard drive.

[Krago]

A little birdie told me that the EKOS poll regions follow the area codes (416, 905, 519, etc.)

Here is a map that overlays the provincial riding boundaries on the area codes.

[Krago]

Windsor West?  Faulty Girders!

[Krago]

The vote shares in Forum's 'Northern Ontario' from the 2011 provincial election were:
PC 36%
Lib 30%
NDP 29%
Green 4%
Others 1%


My quick-and-dirty seat projection using the Forum Regional breakdown is:
PC 48
Lib 41
NDP 18



Does anyone here have a clue how Forum managed to get a four-seat Liberal lead using these numbers?  They must use the same programming that the "Vote Compass" folks use.  That's the quiz on the CBC website, where you mark your position on different issues and it tells you to vote Liberal.

[Krago]

Hatman, i have to take issue with one thing in your projection. you say at the end

"Pumping the regional numbers from both polls into my new Ontario election model, I get a very narrow PC lead, with the Tories at 46 seats, the Liberals at 43 and the NDP at 18. This would result in a minority Progressive Conservative government in the 107 seat legislature."

Its correct to say this would result in  PC "plurality" in the 107 seat legislature...who would actually form a GOVERNMENT if that was the seat distribution is a whole other question....In fact, i suspect that if the PCs were only a couple of seats ahead of the Liberals there is a strong likelihood that the Liberals would form another minority government with a more explicit accord with the NDP.

Anyways, it just irritates me when people project that such and such a party is projected to form a "minority government". - we don't elect a government, we elect a legislature and which party forms a government is not always the party with the most seats. in 1985 Ontario elected 51 PCs, 49 Liberals and 25 NDPers - the results was a Liberal minority government.

In 1985 Ontario elected 52 PCs, 48 Liberals and 25 NDPers - the result was a PC minority government that lasted approx. 8 weeks.

[Krago]

Straight from the CBC Ontario Votes website, the Ontario Riding Finder:



Anyone else recognize the map?


Also, approx. 6% of the working people in Sudbury riding are employed by the mining industry, slightly less than a 'majority'.

[Krago]

Returning to the discussion on 1985, was the post-election PC government sworn in, or was it still in caretaker mode?

Premier Frank Miller's new Cabinet was sworn in on May 17, 1985.  David Peterson didn't take office until June 26.

[Krago]

But have you ever voted for John C. Turmel?  I have.

[Krago]

New Forum Poll:  Liberal 38%, PC 33%, NDP 21%, Green 5%

New (insane) Forum Seat Projection:  Liberal 68, PC 26, NDP 13

[Krago]

Here is the first draft of my letter to the Toronto Star's Public Editor, Kathy English.  Please let me know what you think.



publiced@thestar.ca

Dear Ms. English,

I wish to complain about the Seat Projections that accompanied the recent Forum Research provincial election poll in today's Star.

Forum's latest polling figures show almost no change from the 2011 provincial election results:

• 2011 Actual - Lib 38%, PC 35%, NDP 23%, Green 3%
• 2014 Forum Poll - Lib 38%, PC 35%, NDP 21%, Green 5%

Yet, somehow, Forum projects that the Liberals would gain 15 seats from the opposition parties:

• 2011 Actual -Lib 53, PC 37, NDP 17
• 2014 Forum Projection - Lib 68, PC 26, NDP 13

This is mathematically impossible.  It also follows the Forum poll released on May 3rd, that showed the Liberals with a 48-44 edge in seats despite a 5% PC lead in support.

These projections are so bad that they bring both Forum Research and the Toronto Star into disrepute, and should be stopped immediately.  I would also ask that you publish the methodology used by Forum to produce these seat projections, so that it may be independently reviewed.

Sincerely,

[Krago]

Four weeks to go, here is the lay of the land.  I have put together a spreadsheet comparing the riding-by-riding predictions from ThreeHundredEight.com and the Election Prediction Project.

EPP vs 308_15MAY2014.xls

Enjoy.

[Krago]

Barring a few Facebook eruptions, the Liberal and PC slates are set, while the NDP still needs to coax three lambs to the slaughter.

The male/female breakdowns are:

Liberal: 70 men, 37 women

PC: 80 men, 27 women

NDP:  60 men, 44 women, 3 TBD


Replacing the six Liberals not running for re-election (four men, two women) are four women and two men.  The two vacant PC seats, both held by men previously, now enjoy gender parity.


Using the 2011 provincial election results (substituting by-election figures where available), I've ranked the 'next' thirty seats for each party based on the margin of loss (%).  The ten closest seats for each party are rated A ridings, 11-20 are rated B, and 21-30 are rated C.

Here are the gender breakdowns by party:

Liberal
Incumbents: 31 men, 12 women
Replacements: 2 men 4 women
A Potential:  5 men, 5 women
B Potential:  6 men, 4 women
C Potential:  6 men, 4 women
No hopers:  20 men, 8 women

PC
Incumbents: 27 men, 8 women
Replacements: 1 man 1 woman
A Potential:  9 men, 1 woman
B Potential:  7 men, 3 women
C Potential:  8 men, 2 women
No hopers:  28 men, 12 women

NDP
Incumbents: 12 men, 9 women
Replacements: 0 men, 0 women
A Potential:  5 men, 5 woman
B Potential:  3 men, 7 women
C Potential:  3 men, 7 women
No hopers:  37 men, 16 women, 3 TBD



Also, there are ten former MPPs attempting comebacks to Queen's Park, two for new parties and one for a new riding.

• Bramalea-Gore-Malton - Kuldip Kular (Lib)
• Brant - Phil Gillies (PC)
• Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - Don Abel (NDP) - formerly MPP for Wentworth North (now ADFW)
• Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - Rick Johnson (Lib)
• Kitchener Centre - Wayne Wettlaufer (PC)
• Niagara Falls - Bart Maves (PC)
• Northumberland-Quinte West - Lou Rinaldi (Lib)
• Ottawa West-Nepean - Alex Cullen (was Lib, now NDP)
• Parry Sound-Muskoka - Dan Waters (was NDP, now Lib)
• York South-Weston - Paul Ferreira (NDP)

[Krago]

I read the new Forum poll in today's Toronto Star.  It shows the Liberal lead over the PCs widening from three points (38%-35%) to seven (41%-34%), yet somehow, the projected lead in seats has shrunk from 42 (68-26) to 32 (63-31).  These guys must have PhDs because I can't figure it out!

[Krago]

Because I had nothing better to do tonight, and apparently neither did Elections Ontario, here is my list of all nominated Ontario provincial candidates.

Political Affiliation	Candidates
Green Party of Ontario	107
Ontario Liberal Party	107
Ontario NDP/NPD	107
PC Party of Ontario	107
Libertarian	74
Freedom Party of Ontario	42
Communist	11
None of the Above Party (NOTA)	8
Family Coalition Party of Ontario	6
The People	5
Vegan Environmental Party	5
CCP (Canadians' Choice Party)	4
Northern Ontario Heritage Party	3
Party for People with Special Needs	3
Paupers	3
E.P.P. (Equal Parenting Party)	2
Ontario Moderate Party	2
Ontario Provincial Confederation of Regions Party	2
Socialist Party of Ontario	2
Trillium Party TPO	2
Independent	14
Grand Total	616

[Krago]

For the record, there are running in this election:
 
- two Kathleens, one for the None of the Above Party (don't know which one)
- five Tims and two Timothys
- three Andreas (one of whom is a socialist!)
- but no Daltons

[Krago]

It's a Man-Bites-Dog story that will last as long as the Toronto Star keeps flogging it.

[Krago]

Eddie Francis, Mayor of Windsor

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Francis

[Krago]

Lots of Mayors have led provincial parties out west (Klein, Decore, Harcourt), but I can't remember the last time a sitting Mayor ran for a Ontario provincial party leadership.  The only former Mayor who leaps to mind is Michael Prue.

[Krago]

Don't forget Ralph Klein who was mayor of Calgary.

And in a strange example, former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray ran for the Ontario Liberal leadership last year.

True, but he dropped out before the delegate selection meetings.

David Crombie ran for the federal PC leadership in 1983, finishing a poor 5th with just 4% support.

Alan Tonks went from being Chair of Metro Toronto to a nobody in Ottawa.   Years ago Frank magazine [Canada's version of Private Eye] phoned him a few days after the election when there was much speculation about who might be in cabinet.  They left a message to call back Eddie Goldenberg (Chretien's right-hand man) right away and left a phone number belonging to someone at Frank.  Apparently Tonks called back about 15 times in one day desperately trying to return the call and leaving endless messages about how he could be reached.

[Krago]

By the way, has anyone seen this:  Forum Most Accurate Firm in Predicting Provincial Elections

[Krago]

Forum Research with a surprising poll:

Lib: 36 (-5)
PC: 36 (+2)
NDP: 20 (n/c)
Grn: 7 (+3)

Did you see the headline in today's Toronto Star: "Liberal support plunges in new poll" ?

No, neither did I.

[Krago]

For all this talk of the NDP 'falling apart', or Mr. Hudak killing 100,000 government employees (Soylent Green, anyone?), the campaign has basically stalled at the status quo ante.  The debate matters just to give the media types a new narrative to discuss.

[Krago]

Except the Toronto Star, of course.  They get their narrative delivered daily from the Liberal war room.