Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

I know we (EKOS) are preparing for a June election.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the Tories win- even a majority, it will likely not result in any seats in the 416, so Wynne is safe in her seat.

I know we (EKOS) are preparing for a June election.

You think Horwath will pull the plug? Anyways, I hope the OLP's fate mirrors Marois'.

That's the feeling I'm getting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman: What's changed? My guess was she'd abstain, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

It's the prevailing mood, really... that there will be a June election. I can't speak for the reasons for or against Horwath pulling the plug. But, that's what I'm hearing.

[Hatman 🍁]

A late June election would result in the lowest turnout ever. We might be heading there anyways.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum's consistently boneheaded about the "seat projection" thing, because there's more to it than rawly using "last election's figures" as a benchmark.

Even if they did that, it would be more accurate. Not sure what their methodology is, but it's the worst.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP is denying it.

[Hatman 🍁]

So depending on the pollster, it's either a 3-way race or the NDP is in a distant third. OK.

[Hatman 🍁]

Big mistake for Andrea. She should've waited for Wynne to pull the trigger.

[Hatman 🍁]

Totes unbiased and 100% fair and accurate guide to the parties of Ontario: http://ippikin.wordpress.com/2014/05/02/a-notable-lack-of-common-sense/

A delight to read!

[Hatman 🍁]

Pretty sure Mulcair will let his MPs campaign for the provincial party. It's all the same party after all.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can see Mulcair also campaigning, but definitely not Harper.

[Hatman 🍁]

First map since Smid's fix:

[Hatman 🍁]

To think, I nearly considered getting a subscription to the Star last year. What newspaper should NDPers even read?

[Hatman 🍁]

The 905, as always is the only area of the province that matters.

[Hatman 🍁]

A little birdie told me that the EKOS poll regions follow the area codes (416, 905, 519, etc.)

Here is a map that overlays the provincial riding boundaries on the area codes.

Was the little bird Eric Grenier?

Does Eric Grenier work for EKOS?

[Hatman 🍁]

I've created version 1.0 of my model, inputting the EKOS numbers (putting Northumberland in the 905 and Dufferin-Caledon in 519):

Liberal: 50
PC: 36
NDP: 20
Green: 1

Gonna make some further tweaks due to a few lol-worthy results (like the Greens winning a seat) before publishing anything. I imagine once Forum releases their cross tabs it will help with some of the strange numbers, as well as indicate a closer race.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've created version 1.0 of my model, inputting the EKOS numbers (putting Northumberland in the 905 and Dufferin-Caledon in 519):

Liberal: 50
PC: 36
NDP: 20
Green: 1

Gonna make some further tweaks due to a few lol-worthy results (like the Greens winning a seat) before publishing anything. I imagine once Forum releases their cross tabs it will help with some of the strange numbers, as well as indicate a closer race.

Sounds fairly similar to mine.  I would regard it as strange that green would win a seat under those numbers, I just imagine that those numbers will go away. 

I think the only way to fix the Green number is to factor in the fact that they always over-poll, and to correct for that.

[Hatman 🍁]

You think Windsor West is solid NDP?

[Hatman 🍁]

You think Windsor West is solid NDP?

Okay maybe not, but the current MPP is hardly a high profile like Sandra Paputello and they did get slaughtered in the neighbouring riding in the by-election.  My understanding why Howarth went is her caucus from Northern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario are aware how unpopular the Liberals are in those regions so feel they have every reason to gain.  The main thing holding her back the last two times was her Toronto caucus was nervous, but I imagine she found a way to persuade them as well as of her Toronto MPPs, all of them come from ridings where the PCs are non-existent so there is no need to vote strategically.  If the PCs win any seats in the 416, it will come at the expense of the Liberals and it will be in the suburban parts where the NDP is for the most part quite weak.

I think it's a toss up at this point. Calling it solid is a little presumptive.

Also, I'm not sure about your call regarding Scarborough-Agincourt. The riding went Liberal even during the Mike Harris era, so why do you think it will go Tory now? Is the Chinese community switching to the conservatives like in BC? Do you think they may feel uncomfortable with the Liberals being led by a lesbian?

That reminds me of the OLP leadership race. Looks like Agincourt backed Sousa:

[Hatman 🍁]

Factoring in the EKOS and Forum polls, I get:

PC: 46
Lib: 43
NDP: 18
Grn: 0

[Hatman 🍁]

You do realize Forum's "Northern Ontario" includes all of the 705, right?

Oh, and the Liberals currently have Vaughan, so no surprise there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Weird. My projection has the NDP with a healthy lead in Timmins, but I'm factoring in the EKOS poll which had the Liberals ahead in the 705.

Weird results I have in my projection:

Barrie going Liberal (due to EKOS poll)
Scarborough-Guildwood going PC (close by-election skewing my numbers)
Ottawa South going PC (ditto- but plausible)
Kenora-Rainy River going PC (due to EKOS's very small 807 sample)

Also, I suspect Sudbury will go NDP due to no Liberal incumbent, but my model has the Liberal ahead at this point. Once we know who the candidates are, I will have a better idea of how to tweak my model.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum's seat model has always been s**t.  The cynic in me feels like it's skewed in favour of the Liberals because that's what the Toronto Star wants for its narrative.

Does anyone here have a clue how Forum managed to get a four-seat Liberal lead using these numbers?  They must use the same programming that the "Vote Compass" folks use.  That's the quiz on the CBC website, where you mark your position on different issues and it tells you to vote Liberal.

This literally made me laugh out loud

[Hatman 🍁]

At least that way you know what you're reading is going to be biased and for who.

[Hatman 🍁]

Weird. My projection has the NDP with a healthy lead in Timmins, but I'm factoring in the EKOS poll which had the Liberals ahead in the 705.

Weird results I have in my projection:

Barrie going Liberal (due to EKOS poll)
Scarborough-Guildwood going PC (close by-election skewing my numbers)
Ottawa South going PC (ditto- but plausible)
Kenora-Rainy River going PC (due to EKOS's very small 807 sample)

Also, I suspect Sudbury will go NDP due to no Liberal incumbent, but my model has the Liberal ahead at this point. Once we know who the candidates are, I will have a better idea of how to tweak my model.

Barrie is fairly solidly Tory so unless Hudak does something incredibly stupid I am pretty sure it will stay PC. 

Scarborough-Guildwood went Liberal federally so the Liberals would have to see an even bigger implosion to lose this.  Its only shown as competitive due to the by-election results which skew things  slightly.  For example I don't think Etobicoke-Lakeshore is a lock for the PCs, I could easily see it swinging back to the Liberals.

Ottawa South - This is where uniform swings don't work.  I've noticed in the Ottawa ridings, probably because its a political team, riding results tend to be very consistent election after election.  The Liberals never fall below 40% even in a bad election and never get over 50% even in a landslide one while the PCs always stay above 30% no matter how bad they do and seem unable to crack the 40% mark no matter how well they do while the NDP is always under 20%.

Sudbury could stay Liberal, but if an election were called today, I think the NDP would have an edge there.

The problem with the Northern Ontario is areas south of North Bay have very different voting patterns than areas north of it.  So the results need to be taken with caution as the PCs are probably in the upper 40s and maybe even low 50s in the Barrie to North Bay area which is normally considered Central not Northern Ontario while they are probably in the 20s in what is normally thought of as Northern Ontario, otherwise north of North Bay.  By contrast Central Ontario asides from the 905 belt is one of the NDP's weakest areas whereas by contrast Northern Ontario is one of its strongest.  The Liberals on the other hand are fairly evenly distributed so if they are only at 30% they are looking at close to a route.

One thing with Ottawa South is that the McGuinty brand is pretty strong. In the first election without one in a long time, it was very close. With the same three candidates running, it's not inconceivable that it could go Tory. Plus, McGuinty was from Ottawa, which I think helped the Liberals in the region, so now that he's no longer leader, I can see some swing in the region. I know that between 2006 and 2008 the federal Tories saw a large swing in the city.

What are you all actually doing, mathematically, to get these projections?

I use a ratio projection on a regional basis, but altering results in ridings that have had by-elections (taking into account polling averages around the by-elections). Unlike Brendan, I will also be doing some riding level tweaks to get more believable results. Tweaks will be based on math as well though.