What are Pat Quinn's chances? Should he have ridden off into the sunset?

[Bojack Horseman]

Does Pat Quinn stand any chance in November? My thought was that he should have done what Bev Perdue did in North Carolina: Realize you have a 30% approval rating and retire. Don't run for re-election to save any chance the party has left of winning the next election, and ride off into the sunset.

The most recent poll from two weeks ago has Rauner leading by 13.3%. If Lisa Madigan or even Tio Hardiman had gotten the nomination, do you think either of them would have won in the Land of Lincoln?

[MurrayBannerman]

He should have, but I'm so glad he didn't.

[Maxwell]

Tio Hardiman wouldn't have won. I think he went to jail relatively recently.

[free my dawg]

Duh. It's Illinois.

[Franzl]

Tio Hardiman wouldn't have won. I think he went to jail relatively recently.

I don't think this would be perceived as unusual by Illinoisians.

[CatoMinor]

Never underestimate the fact that some people would vote for Stalin if he had the right letter next to his name on the ballot. And in the case of Cook county, there are nearly 1.5 million such voters the Democrats can count on.

While I think Quinn will ultimately lose, it will probably be much closer than it should be for someone who's approvals are way down. This can also be seen in Florida, where logically there is no reason the incumbent should be re-elected, and yet polls show a close race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Illinois is a Democratic state. Quinn have less money than Rauner and so did Dillard. Quinn will run a similar campaign strategy. People against the multimillionaire.

[IceSpear]

Never underestimate the fact that some people would vote for Stalin if he had the right letter next to his name on the ballot. And in the case of Cook county, there are nearly 1.5 million such voters the Democrats can count on.

Sounds similar to Texas voters, who would vote for Hitler as long as he had an (R).

[ill ind]

  I give Quinn an even money chance of winning.  Never, never, never, underestimate his ability to campaign.  I believe it was 4 years ago that every single poll said he would lose.  I bet there were quite a few jaws on the floor of the Brady victory party that night.
  Rauner is already at war with Michael Madigan, so expect the Cook County Democratic turnout operation to be in full force come November.

Ill_Ind

[TX Conservative Dem]

My thoughts are that Quinn should have retired this year after his horrible 1st full four-year term as governor, but his ego won't let him.

Now if Quinn had retired, Lisa Madigan would have easily won the Dem nomination and general election in November.

[RogueBeaver]

He'll probably win, if narrowly.

[Gass3268]

He'll probably win, if narrowly.

Agreed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP party could of nominated winners, moderate Corrine Wood lost to Jim Ryan, 2006 Jim Oberwise lost to JB Topinka, 2014 Kirk Dillard lost to Bruce Rauner. The GOP primary voters are so far right, they nominate the ones that are less electable.

[muon2]

My thoughts are that Quinn should have retired this year after his horrible 1st full four-year term as governor, but his ego won't let him.

Now if Quinn had retired, Lisa Madigan would have easily won the Dem nomination and general election in November.

Lisa Madigan didn't pass on the race because Quinn stayed in. She passed on it because her father wouldn't agree to retire as Speaker.

[muon2]

The GOP party could of nominated winners, moderate Corrine Wood lost to Jim Ryan, 2006 Jim Oberwise lost to JB Topinka, 2014 Kirk Dillard lost to Bruce Rauner. The GOP primary voters are so far right, they nominate the ones that are less electable.

Oberweis is quite a bit to the right of Topinka. Of the 4 candidates in 2006 the GOP nominated the most moderate of the choices by anyone's measure. Ryan was the middle candidate in terms of ideology of the three that ran in 2002, and was a popular AG.

In consecutive elections the GOP nominated a popular center-right statewide office holder, a very moderate (some would say liberal) statewide office holder, and a conservative long-time state senator. Ideology was not the factor in the defeats. The IL Dems have an excellent ground organization and GOTV and that is the common factor in all three races.

[henster]

I hate politicians with huge egos Quinn should've stepped aside back in 2010 but his lust for power has kept him going. It's ridiculous Dems are just fine with carrying this deadweight around who's bad for downballot races and forces the party to spend money and resources on a race we shouldn't have to. All it requires is some effort to nudge him out have Obama/Clinton etc. make some calls like they did with Paterson in NY, line up some strong primary challengers, cut off the funds its not that hard to send someone on their way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quinn, just like Crist happens to be a senior. Seniors vote in midterm elections. They were pivotal in his defeat of Hynes. Although, he isn't Dems choice of being Gov, it is a winnable race. Against Dillard, we had no chance.

[TX Conservative Dem]

On Madigan's father: term limits in the Illinois House of Representatives (see CA term limits in 1990 due to Willie Brown) will force him to retire from the speakership sooner or later.

At some point, folks are going to get sick and tired of Mike Madigan.

[muon2]

On Madigan's father: term limits in the Illinois House of Representatives (see CA term limits in 1990 due to Willie Brown) will force him to retire from the speakership sooner or later.

At some point, folks are going to get sick and tired of Mike Madigan.

There are no term limits in the IL House, though there is a current citizen initiative to institute them. If the initiative survives the court challenge and wins this year, the earliest Speaker Madigan could be forced out is in 2023 after the 2022 elections.

Folks may tire of the Speaker (he's served in that office for all but 2 years since 1983), but they can't elect someone else. Madigan does an excellent job of supporting Dems in their home districts and the gerrymandered map heavily favors a Dem majority. The House Dems are not going to elect anyone else as long as Madigan chooses to remain Speaker.

[CountyTy90]

I think Quinn should have bowed out, but he sees a opportunity. I don't think 2014 is like 2010 (I.E. the 2nd Republican Revolution) and he thinks he can carry out a squeaker. It'll be close, but I think he'll win. Lisa Madigan could have swept the state clean.

Rauner may be up in the polls now, but I have two words for you: Bill Brady.

Larry Sabato and the Crystal Ball, who are extremely accurate in forecasting elections, even got this race wrong in 2010. Look at the map; Downstate literally tried with all their might against Quinn, but he was able to win with just Cook County. For God's sake he didn't even break 40% in Champaign County where there is U of I and a large liberal population. Or Peoria County. He barely won Rock Island County.

I think it will be a repeat of 2010; everyone calling for a Republican, but Quinn pulls through in November.

Remember... it's only early April...