MT: Magellan: Walsh losing to Daines by 13

[Miles]

Article.

Daines (R)- 49%
Walsh (D)- 36%
Roots (L)- 4%
Other/Unsure- 11%

Republicans also lead by 13 on the generic ballot, 50-37.

Bad pollster, but the results don't seem that far off.

[windjammer]

Mostly a problem of name recognition!

[Maxwell]

Mostly a problem of name recognition!

Walsh has favorables of 47-29, compared to Daines with 53-33. That doesn't strike me as a name recognition problem, as both are fairly even in this area (Daines only a little bit more, certainly less than his lead on Walsh).

The numbers seem to make sense. I wouldn't call this one impossible, but I'm starting to think this seat is out of reach for Dems.

[windjammer]

Mostly a problem of name recognition!

Walsh has favorables of 47-29, compared to Daines with 53-33. That doesn't strike me as a name recognition problem, as both are fairly even in this area (Daines only a little bit more, certainly less than his lead on Walsh).

The numbers seem to make sense. I wouldn't call this one impossible, but I'm starting to think this seat is out of reach for Dems.

Ooops, I haven't seen the name recognition results.
Well, I don't know. We will see. It's still lean rep for me.

[publicunofficial]

Daines below 50. Toss-Up! /hack

[ElectionsGuy]

Of course Walsh still has an advantage because of incumbency

[Maxwell]

Of course Walsh still has an advantage because of incumbency

Four-term Incumbent Senator David Karnes of Nebraska agrees with this assessment. (am also being facetious)

[IceSpear]

Mostly a problem of name recognition!

Walsh has favorables of 47-29, compared to Daines with 53-33. That doesn't strike me as a name recognition problem, as both are fairly even in this area (Daines only a little bit more, certainly less than his lead on Walsh).

The numbers seem to make sense. I wouldn't call this one impossible, but I'm starting to think this seat is out of reach for Dems.

I'm surprised Walsh's favorability is that high. Gotta look for a silver lining somewhere.

[bgwah]

Montana is small enough (and swingy enough for statewide elections) that I could see this one getting close as the election nears.

[morgieb]

Probably realistic numbers, though Walsh's numbers are surprisingly robust, and Magellan are crap.

[LeBron]

Still lean R, but let's keep in mind, early polls in 2011-2012 showed Rehberg leads and his campaign ultimately flopped with a Tester win courtesy of the Libertarian in the race and his backing from organized labor, women, independents, moderates and environmentalists. Walsh, like Tester, is getting major help to from the state party, the national party, Planned Parenthood, MEA-MFT, has a strong fundraising team that's giving Walsh these early high favorable ratings, and there's also a Libertarian in this race to steal votes from Daines. As the campaign goes on, Walsh will bring this race closer and bring some of the Tester voters home to him. Plus Daines supported the govt shutdown which was huge to the national parks and veterans in MT, so there's another effective strategy.

I should point out to that this is the 3rd Republican pollster in a row (Harper, Rasmussen and now Magellan). The last time PPP polled here was November when barely anybody knew who Walsh was, so I would wait for another poll from them before we say that Daines is highly favored.