Which states could flip with no Hillary?

[Free Bird]

Assuming Hillary Clinton declines to run, as I think she will, which states could the Republicans pick up in the face of Democrat fatigue and an unpopular incumbent? Feel free to discuss different potential GOP nominees, as I think they could produce different results (I.e, Rand Paul could pick up Iowa and New Hampshire, Christie could get PA back finally, and Walker could get back Wisconsin). Full maps are also encouraged to see overall trends!

[Mister Mets]

Florida and Ohio were slightly more conservative than the rest of the nation in 2008 and 2012, so those are the likeliest pick-ups.

Virginia's also likely to be within a point of the national popular vote.

Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa and Pennsylvania were bunched very close together in 2012. PA, in particular, has been getting less Democratic-leaning since 2004. If a Republican wins the popular vote by two points, these states probably go to the party.

The Romney/ Ryan ticket had unique strengths in Nevada and Wisconsin, but those states might flip if Republicans do a little bit better. Looking at recent elections, a four point popular vote win should help the party carry Minnesota.

The gap with Michigan and New Mexico was slightly higher. That would require a six point Republican win, or a combination of a slightly smaller win, and a popular favorite son/ daughter candidate/ running mate.

If Christie recovers enough to become the party's nominee, New Jersey's likely to be in play.

This could all happen with Hillary as the nominee. She currently has the benefit of being able to distance herself from unpopular policies. That's not a luxury she'll have as the party's candidate.

[Free Bird]

I don't understand why everyone is treating Hillary as inevitable, though. She's getting old, and before being constantly heckled about it, said running is something she wouldn't do again.

In particular with PA and MN, I often say they don't know that they want to be red (or blue here?) states. It will take a good candidate to put them in play though. Notice how the awful Bush closed the gap in them all, as well as in MI and WI. Imagine what a GOOD, popular Republican could do. I always say WI is not gone due to how close it was in 2000 and 2004. Obama in all these states was a fluke, IMO.

This Blue Wall that is spoken of is only I really solid with someone popular like Bill or Obama, as I stated. Given a generic Democrat like O'Malley or Dean, and a good Republican like Rand Paul, Scott Walker, or maybe even Jon Huntsman, and I think a lot of these states can be in play.

[Smash255]

I don't understand why everyone is treating Hillary as inevitable, though. She's getting old, and before being constantly heckled about it, said running is something she wouldn't do again.

In particular with PA and MN, I often say they don't know that they want to be red (or blue here?) states. It will take a good candidate to put them in play though. Notice how the awful Bush closed the gap in them all, as well as in MI and WI. Imagine what a GOOD, popular Republican could do. I always say WI is not gone due to how close it was in 2000 and 2004. Obama in all these states was a fluke, IMO.

This Blue Wall that is spoken of is only I really solid with someone popular like Bill or Obama, as I stated. Given a generic Democrat like O'Malley or Dean, and a good Republican like Rand Paul, Scott Walker, or maybe even Jon Huntsman, and I think a lot of these states can be in play.

Paul and Walker are good Republicans?  Since when?  Huntsman I agree with, but he has the same chances of winning a Republican Presidential Primary as I do.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Paul and Walker are good Republicans?  Since when?  Huntsman I agree with, but he has the same chances of winning a Republican Presidential Primary as I do.

Paul can appeal to personal liberty and antiwar voters.  Walker is a Conservative who got elected in a blue state.

[Smash255]

Paul and Walker are good Republicans?  Since when?  Huntsman I agree with, but he has the same chances of winning a Republican Presidential Primary as I do.

Paul can appeal to personal liberty and antiwar voters.  Walker is a Conservative who got elected in a blue state.

Both are way too conservative socially in order to put anything in play outside of what Romney won.  Wisconsin is a possibility for Walker, but the different electorate might make that a bit more difficult.  Keep in mind Romney won a much bluer state, look how much good that did him.