Will a state break up any time soon?

[Mr. Illini]

There are a number of states that have been discussed as wanting to split up due to political and cultural reasons, but we haven't seen this actually happen much. They include...

NE CO/Colorado
Upstate NYS/NYC
South FL/North FL
Southern IL/Chicagoland
Jefferson/California
Northern Cal/Southern Cal
NOVA/Virginia
Austin/Texas

Will we see any of these splits actually occur at any point in our lifetimes? If so, which are most likely?

[Gass3268]

Nope, it could take another civil war.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Doubtful.  For a split to have a chance of happening, both halves would have to be in agreement that it would be a good idea.  Even then, it would have to be to the partisan advantage of the party controlling Congress.  There's just no proposed split that is even close to meeting the first requirement, let alone the second.

[Del Tachi]

The time for such has passed.

Political boundaries, even those between U.S. states, are becoming increasingly irrelevant. 

And what Ernest said. 

[DINGO Joe]

Something should be done to put WV out of it's misery.

[SPC]

Something should be done to put WV out of it's misery.

Give the Mid-Ohio Valley to Ohio, Mountain Lakes to Pennsylvania, Potomac Highlands to Maryland, New River/Greenbrier Valley to Virginia, and Metro Valley to Kentucky?

[Kevinstat]

Does anyone else find it interesting that the area where the Kentucky, Virginia and West Virginia boundaries meet makes it look like Kentucky separated from Virginia after West Virginia did?  That point into Virginia (as it would have been before West Virginia became a state) made an obvious point for one end of the new boundary that would be created by the separation of WV from its mother commonwealth.  The southernmost point of Maryland's western boundary (and perhaps Maryland's westernmost point, as that boundary looks like a very steep /) would have been another (and the short boundary between the present Grant and Preston counties has its northern boundary at that point or close to it), but that would have left the arsenal at Harper's Ferry in Virginia which could have made future rebellions easier in the mindset at the time (the Civil War was going on at the time West Virginia became a state).  It also might be that there wasn't an internal Virginia county boundary ending at that point at the time like there presumably was at the Kentucky point.

[SNJ1985]

There are a number of states that have been discussed as wanting to split up due to political and cultural reasons, but we haven't seen this actually happen much. They include...

NE CO/Colorado
Upstate NYS/NYC
South FL/North FL
Southern IL/Chicagoland
Jefferson/California
Northern Cal/Southern Cal
NOVA/Virginia
Austin/Texas

Will we see any of these splits actually occur at any point in our lifetimes? If so, which are most likely?

In 1980, a referendum was held in six counties of Southern New Jersey to secede and form a new state; and it actually passed with 50.90%. It was non-binding, however, and nothing ever came of it (obviously).

www(dot)ourcampaigns(dot)com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=6565

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only one I can see as a possibility within the next generation would be Staten Island splitting from NYC and joining New Jersey.

[The Mikado]

There are a number of states that have been discussed as wanting to split up due to political and cultural reasons, but we haven't seen this actually happen much. They include...

NE CO/Colorado
Upstate NYS/NYC
South FL/North FL
Southern IL/Chicagoland
Jefferson/California
Northern Cal/Southern Cal
NOVA/Virginia
Austin/Texas

Will we see any of these splits actually occur at any point in our lifetimes? If so, which are most likely?

No one wants to split Austin off from Texas.  The Rio Grande valley might be a mildly more plausible one if you wanted a Texas split.

That said, there won't be any splits.

I have to say, though, Chicagoland/the rest of Illinois makes a considerable degree of sense, even if it'd be terrible for the Democrats.

[Sol]

The only one I can see as a possibility within the next generation would be Staten Island splitting from NYC and joining New Jersey.

I've never understood while people have Staten Island joining NJ, when it really could just become a separate municipality in New York State.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

but that would have left the arsenal at Harper's Ferry in Virginia which could have made future rebellions easier in the mindset at the time (the Civil War was going on at the time West Virginia became a state).

At the time, the arsenal was kaput, with its pre-war machinery having already been removed to Richmond along with many of those who worked there.  The main reason for the West Virginia panhandle was to place the entirety of what had been the Virginia portion of the B&O railroad in the State of West Virginia, just in case.  The B&O crosses the Potomac River several times as it goes up the Potomac Valley, but the first crossing is at Harpers Ferry.

[Indy Texas]

No one wants to split Austin off from Texas.  The Rio Grande valley might be a mildly more plausible one if you wanted a Texas split.

I don't see how Austin could split off anyway. It would just be this little state with less than a million people that was entirely surrounded by another state.

Making the Rio Grande Valley its own state would be a complete disaster. You'd instantly create the poorest state in the country. It likely wouldn't be able to fund its own state services without considerable tax increases and/or federal help. It would be a one-party state where corruption and complacency dominated politics.

[politicallefty]

I can't foresee any state breaking up any time soon.

However, in the 1992 primary, 31 counties in California voted on a non-binding advisory referendum on splitting the state: