Will Hillary do better or worse than Obama with white voters?

[JonathanSwift]

Please discuss.

[IceSpear]

Option 3.

[TDAS04]

Option 3 is likely. 

[JonathanSwift]

I also voted for Option 3.

[aktheden]

worse....White voters now hate the Democratic Party

[Sumner 1868]

worse....White voters now hate the Democratic Party

The Democratic Party hasn't won the white vote since 1964, and they still have sizeable support from younger whites.

[Mr. Reactionary]

The Democratic Party hasn't won the white vote since 1964, and they still have sizeable support from younger whites.

Although I believe I read that this support is tapering off generationally. I remember Cuccinelli won white 18-24 year olds but lost white 25-40 year olds. The general argument being that those who became adults when Bush was President vote Democrat and those who became adults under Obama vote Republican.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Cuccinelli-college-women-poll/2013/11/08/id/535605/

[Sumner 1868]

The Democratic Party hasn't won the white vote since 1964, and they still have sizeable support from younger whites.

Although I believe I read that this support is tapering off generationally. I remember Cuccinelli won white 18-24 year olds but lost white 25-40 year olds. The general argument being that those who became adults when Bush was President vote Democrat and those who became adults under Obama vote Republican.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Cuccinelli-college-women-poll/2013/11/08/id/535605/

Hmm. If that does materialize, that would be similar to the Baby Boom divide between those aged under Nixon and those under Ford and Carter.

[RFayette]

The Democratic Party hasn't won the white vote since 1964, and they still have sizeable support from younger whites.

Although I believe I read that this support is tapering off generationally. I remember Cuccinelli won white 18-24 year olds but lost white 25-40 year olds. The general argument being that those who became adults when Bush was President vote Democrat and those who became adults under Obama vote Republican.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Cuccinelli-college-women-poll/2013/11/08/id/535605/

Hmm. If that does materialize, that would be similar to the Baby Boom divide between those aged under Nixon and those under Ford and Carter.

The GOP does poorly among young voters now, though I will expect that those who are just gaining voting age now will be more conservative than the older ones as the years progress.

[Sumner 1868]

The Democratic Party hasn't won the white vote since 1964, and they still have sizeable support from younger whites.

Although I believe I read that this support is tapering off generationally. I remember Cuccinelli won white 18-24 year olds but lost white 25-40 year olds. The general argument being that those who became adults when Bush was President vote Democrat and those who became adults under Obama vote Republican.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Cuccinelli-college-women-poll/2013/11/08/id/535605/

Hmm. If that does materialize, that would be similar to the Baby Boom divide between those aged under Nixon and those under Ford and Carter.

The GOP does poorly among young voters now, though I will expect that those who are just gaining voting age now will be more conservative than the older ones as the years progress.

Depends. The Boomer rightward shift depended a lot on Reagan. No such figure presently exists.

[Suburbia]

Option 2.

[RFayette]

The Democratic Party hasn't won the white vote since 1964, and they still have sizeable support from younger whites.

Although I believe I read that this support is tapering off generationally. I remember Cuccinelli won white 18-24 year olds but lost white 25-40 year olds. The general argument being that those who became adults when Bush was President vote Democrat and those who became adults under Obama vote Republican.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Cuccinelli-college-women-poll/2013/11/08/id/535605/

Hmm. If that does materialize, that would be similar to the Baby Boom divide between those aged under Nixon and those under Ford and Carter.

The GOP does poorly among young voters now, though I will expect that those who are just gaining voting age now will be more conservative than the older ones as the years progress.

Depends. The Boomer rightward shift depended a lot on Reagan. No such figure presently exists.

Agreed, it will definitely take a positive personality to move the needle a lot; we shall see who that ends up being. Odds are, it will happen.

[Likely Voter]

I agree with the consensus of something in between 2008 and 2012, so more like Kerry or Gore (around 41%).

But one has to wonder how the GOP are planning on winning the election if they can't increase their share of the white vote. I find it hard to believe they can win back enough non-whites to make up the difference.

[YaBoyNY]

worse....White voters now hate the Democratic Party

Not really.

The Democratic Party hasn't won the white vote since 1964, and they still have sizeable support from younger whites.

Although I believe I read that this support is tapering off generationally. I remember Cuccinelli won white 18-24 year olds but lost white 25-40 year olds. The general argument being that those who became adults when Bush was President vote Democrat and those who became adults under Obama vote Republican.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Cuccinelli-college-women-poll/2013/11/08/id/535605/

Hmm. If that does materialize, that would be similar to the Baby Boom divide between those aged under Nixon and those under Ford and Carter.

The GOP does poorly among young voters now, though I will expect that those who are just gaining voting age now will be more conservative than the older ones as the years progress.

Depends. The Boomer rightward shift depended a lot on Reagan. No such figure presently exists.

Agreed, it will definitely take a positive personality to move the needle a lot; we shall see who that ends up being. Odds are, it will happen.

It's going to have to happen in the next 10 years to be an impressionable figure in the minds of the younger Millennials. I don't see it as very likely, and I don't think there's gonna be a significant divide like among the Baby Boomers.

[NerdyBohemian]

in the next few years the Democrats are going to have to come out swinging on the student loan crisis. Those younger  white milenials are in college right now and all cynical and trying to be edgy. When they start paying their loans and realize how the GOP wants to privatize all student loans they'll know who to support...besides the entitled rich white kids who weren't going to support them regardless.

[YaBoyNY]

in the next few years the Democrats are going to have to come out swinging on the student loan crisis. Those younger  white milenials are in college right now and all cynical and trying to be edgy. When they start paying their loans and realize how the GOP wants to privatize all student loans they'll know who to support...besides the entitled rich white kids who weren't going to support them regardless.

Even a lot of the entitled rich white ones aren't surefire GOP voters like their parents might be.

[Mister Mets]

I think she'll do worse than Obama 2012. The main reason is that she's unlikely to run in as favorable an environment as Obama had in '08 and '12. It's normal for parties to lose support the longer they stay in the White House, and I don't see Hillary Clinton being an exception.

[IceSpear]

I think she'll do worse than Obama 2012. The main reason is that she's unlikely to run in as favorable an environment as Obama had in '08 and '12. It's normal for parties to lose support the longer they stay in the White House, and I don't see Hillary Clinton being an exception.

If we're going to talk history, the only Republican in recent history to get more of the white vote than Romney did in 2012 was Reagan in 1984.

[Mr. Illini]

The Democratic Party hasn't won the white vote since 1964, and they still have sizeable support from younger whites.

Although I believe I read that this support is tapering off generationally. I remember Cuccinelli won white 18-24 year olds but lost white 25-40 year olds. The general argument being that those who became adults when Bush was President vote Democrat and those who became adults under Obama vote Republican.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Cuccinelli-college-women-poll/2013/11/08/id/535605/

Virginia youth do not represent the youth nationally. Virginia is turning blue largely because of the 25-40 crowd moving to NoVA. The young vote in Virginia is situated largely outside of NoVA and acts more like southern trends.

[King]

It's normal for parties to lose support the longer they stay in the White House

That's a meaningless statement. The Federalist Party isn't entering their 226th consecutive year of majority rule, yeah, but they didn't decline because of fatigue. Thomas Jefferson (DR) defeated John Adams (F) for re-election. If Jefferson were running against Washington, he would have lost.

The Republicans are not entitled to more vote because the Democrats have been in office for 8 years. They need a candidate that white voters like more than Clinton by a margin greater than white voters preferred Romney to Obama.

[SingingAnalyst]

Some white voters especially in Appalachia and the Deep South who didn't vote for Obama may vote for Hillary, especially if her VP pick is from that region (Joe Manchin maybe?). That will be offset by those who gave Obama the benefit of the doubt in 2012 but who in 2016 will definitely be ready for a change. Overall, a wash.