Utah state house election ratings
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  Utah state house election ratings
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Author Topic: Utah state house election ratings  (Read 363 times)
Zioneer
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Junior Chimp
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« on: April 15, 2014, 07:23:09 PM »

So here is Utah state house election ratings by Utah Policy, a popular public policy website. Of particular interest is HD 30, HD 31, HD 40, and HD 44.

Speaking as a Utah resident and a Democrat, I feel like most of these ratings are correct (especially outside of Salt Lake County), but a couple are a bit off. HD 31 and HD 33 in particular should be toss-up considering that the current Dem incumbent in HD 31 has survived close elections before, and the freshman Republican incumbent in HD 33 barely won, and his 2012 Democratic challenger is back with a lot more support (the labor and Hispanic groups were not cooperating last due to the Dem challenger beating a labor-endorsed Dem incumbent).

Additionally, it is frankly absurd to call HD 26 and HD 35 "lean Democrat". Both are in incredibly diverse areas with Democratic-leaning voters. Yes, turnout will be lower, but not that much lower.

As a side note, Utah Policy is owned and directed by LaVarr Webb, a former Utah GOP state legislator, so it probably has a bit of a Republican bias (though the guy who wrote the ratings article is a former executive director of the Utah Dems).
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Zioneer
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2014, 06:03:27 PM »

Any thoughts on this?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2014, 06:22:16 PM »

Are there any Dems outside of Salt Lake County or Summit County?
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Zioneer
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2014, 06:56:53 PM »

Are there any Dems outside of Salt Lake County or Summit County?

Nope. The only Democratic state rep with precincts outside Salt Lake County only has precincts in Summit County (Representative Brian King, who represents the safest Democratic district in Utah that takes in the Salt Lake City neighborhood The Avenues (the local LGBT neighborhood) and a bit of Summit County).

House Districts 9 and 10 in Weber County could be potential Democratic pickups, as both districts have a massive Hispanic minority (Dixon Pitcher in HD 10 barely won by less than 800 votes in 2012).

Additionally, the sprawling multi-county Southern Utah district in HD 69 was represented by a conservative Democrat named Christine Watkins until 2012, when she lost narrowly. The district had been redrawn to favor Republicans, and Watkin's opponent barely had to try to win. Watkins is running as a Republican this time around, but either way, the Dems have recruited former rep Brad King (not to be confused with Brian King), who held the district before Watkins did. If any Democrat could reclaim the seat, it's Brad King.

Other than that, Dems are doomed across the state. Even in Salt Lake County, they're struggling. At least with a state party chair election in a week, they'll have someone new to blame.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2014, 07:00:03 PM »

That sucks. I also see on the map that Logan was divided like 3 ways. If I remember right from DRA, Democrats could be favored there if they kept the city together.
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Zioneer
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2014, 07:03:41 PM »

That sucks. I also see on the map that Logan was divided like 3 ways. If I remember right from DRA, Democrats could be favored there if they kept the city together.

I have no idea, as my area of expertise is Salt Lake County.

Still, at least there's 2016, when Matheson is likely to run for statewide office and a host of strong legislative candidates have said they're probably going to run. In the meantime though, we're probably going to lose at least one or two more state house seats. Our (five) state senate seats are safe enough that we'll probably keep them all.
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