IL-Gov: How many counties will Pat Quinn win in 2014? (ROLLING)

[Bojack Horseman]

I'm going with 4. Same as in 2010.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2. Cook and Alexander.

[TDAS04]

5

[Free Bird]

Just Cook. But he may win anyway.

Slim chance, but I won't be devastated

[ElectionsGuy]

If Quinn gets >62% in Cook there's a good chance he wins with only one county, and I think that's what will happen.

[Gass3268]

If Quinn gets >62% in Cook there's a good chance he wins with only one county, and I think that's what will happen.

I think he'll still win some of the strong Dem counties downstate.

[Lief 🗽]

Just one. And it will be goddamn glorious.

[DrScholl]

That depends on what percentage he gets statewide, if it's similar to his 2010 percentage, he'll win the same ones he did then. If it's higher, he picks up Rock Island and Fulton.

[Ebowed]

Cook & Alexander

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It'd be hilarious to see him win with only Cook but he's not losing Alexander.

[Lief 🗽]

Why is Alexander County so relatively Democratic?

[ElectionsGuy]

Why is Alexander County so relatively Democratic?

Its 36% black.

[Lief 🗽]

That's what I figured, but Pulaski right next to it is 31% black and Quinn lost it by twenty points.

[Mr. Illini]

That's what I figured, but Pulaski right next to it is 31% black and Quinn lost it by twenty points.

It houses Cairo, which is incredibly poor and deserted. It has a history of nasty racial violence and white flight.

What puzzles me more so is why Fulton County is so Democratic. I know the northwestern portion of the state votes like Iowa, but Fulton is much more Democratic than its neighbors despite being sparsely populated and not much different demographically than its neighbors.

[RR1997]

5

[Liberalrocks]

Just 1 Cook County (Chicago) and because its Illinois he somehow pulls it out again. LOL.

[Skill and Chance]

I would like to see a win with just Cook for the pure entertainment value, but if he is really up by 2+%, then he should at least win Alexander and St. Clair.

[ElectionsGuy]

Quinn lost with one county

If Quinn gets >62% in Cook there's a good chance he wins with only one county, and I think that's what will happen.

He got 65% (!!) of the vote in Cook and still lost. Probably due to awful turnout.

[Mr. Illini]

Yep, in stunning fashion Quinn somehow lost Alexander County and also lost St. Claire County by 9 percentage points!

Quinn's second-best performance came in Fulton County, 46.8-45% for Rauner. Grimm (L) got 8% there, likely from Democratic defectors.

[Calthrina950]

Quinn lost with one county

If Quinn gets >62% in Cook there's a good chance he wins with only one county, and I think that's what will happen.

He got 65% (!!) of the vote in Cook and still lost. Probably due to awful turnout.

Another old thread, but why exactly was Pat Quinn so unpopular that the vast majority of Illinois' counties (and in 2014, every county except for Cook) rejected him?

[new_patomic]

Quinn lost with one county

If Quinn gets >62% in Cook there's a good chance he wins with only one county, and I think that's what will happen.

He got 65% (!!) of the vote in Cook and still lost. Probably due to awful turnout.

Another old thread, but why exactly was Pat Quinn so unpopular that the vast majority of Illinois' counties (and in 2014, every county except for Cook) rejected him?

He didn't really have any natural constituency. The machine didn't care for him, black leaders were at best indifferent, progressives didn't consider him one of their own, and since he was only Governor thanks to Blago being impeached, his being there felt more like a fluke than anything. The impression most had of him was chiefly of incompetence, or being in over his head.

This was also midway through the state's political realignment.

Ancestral Democratic areas had already been shifting hard against the party for awhile, and by 2014 this process was mostly completed. Whereas Blagovehich won a lot of Southern Illinois, Quinn got destroyed. Though you did see Duckworth interestingly enough retain some of these voters in 2016, as a sort of last-hurrah; we probably won't see a Democrat win Gallatin County again anytime soon (sans Jesse White, maybe).

But on the other side of the equation, it wouldn't be until 2018 that you would start to see many suburban areas and mid-sized cities voting at the statewide level like they've voted at the federal level. Places like Champaign, Peoria, and DuPage had a long history of voting for Republican at the state-level, often by large margins.

In 2014 this all combined into a map where his only real area of strength was the City of Chicago.

[Calthrina950]

Quinn lost with one county

If Quinn gets >62% in Cook there's a good chance he wins with only one county, and I think that's what will happen.

He got 65% (!!) of the vote in Cook and still lost. Probably due to awful turnout.

Another old thread, but why exactly was Pat Quinn so unpopular that the vast majority of Illinois' counties (and in 2014, every county except for Cook) rejected him?

He didn't really have any natural constituency. The machine didn't care for him, black leaders were at best indifferent, progressives didn't consider him one of their own, and since he was only Governor thanks to Blago being impeached, his being there felt more like a fluke than anything. The impression most had of him was chiefly of incompetence, or being in over his head.

This was also midway through the state's political realignment.

Ancestral Democratic areas had already been shifting hard against the party for awhile, and by 2014 this process was mostly completed. Whereas Blagovehich won a lot of Southern Illinois, Quinn got destroyed. Though you did see Duckworth interestingly enough retain some of these voters in 2016, as a sort of last-hurrah; we probably won't see a Democrat win Gallatin County again anytime soon (sans Jesse White, maybe).

But on the other side of the equation, it wouldn't be until 2018 that you would start to see many suburban areas and mid-sized cities voting at the statewide level like they've voted at the federal level. Places like Champaign, Peoria, and DuPage had a long history of voting for Republican at the state-level, often by large margins.

In 2014 this all combined into a map where his only real area of strength was the City of Chicago.

Very interesting read. It still astonishes me that this map:

represented only a 4% victory for Rauner. He won 101 of the state's 102 counties, and in 94 counties, defeated Quinn by double digits. Cook County is the only reason why Quinn was even competitive. If you removed Cook County from Illinois, it would have been a landslide result for Rauner:

Bruce Rauner/Evelyn Sanguinetti (Republican)-1,376,239-60.29%
Pat Quinn/Paul Vallas (Democratic)-810,477-35.50%
Others-95,835-4.21%

Quinn would have lost by 24.79%, rather than the 3.92% that he actually did. This election really does help to demonstrate the power of Cook County, that it took all 101 other counties to just narrowly outvote it.

[new_patomic]

Quinn would have lost by 24.79%, rather than the 3.92% that he actually did. This election really does help to demonstrate the power of Cook County, that it took all 101 other counties to just narrowly outvote it.

Where it really started going wrong for Republicans is that they stopped being able to win Suburban Cook County. Or just lost any floor they may have had in the city. Could be both.

But in 1990 this sort of map was actually a Republican victory


And it could work because Republicans would sweep the Collar Counties and most of Central Illinois, while holding Democrats to less than 60 percent in Cook.

But in 2002 Blago managed to get over 60 percent in the country, and Democrats haven't gotten less than 60 percent of the vote there since, with Pritzker getting over 70 percent in 2018.

[Calthrina950]

Quinn would have lost by 24.79%, rather than the 3.92% that he actually did. This election really does help to demonstrate the power of Cook County, that it took all 101 other counties to just narrowly outvote it.

Where it really started going wrong for Republicans is that they stopped being able to win Suburban Cook County. Or just lost any floor they may have had in the city. Could be both.

But in 1990 this sort of map was actually a Republican victory


And it could work because Republicans would sweep the Collar Counties and most of Central Illinois, while holding Democrats to less than 60 percent in Cook.

But in 2002 Blago managed to get over 60 percent in the country, and Democrats haven't gotten less than 60 percent of the vote there since, with Pritzker getting over 70 percent in 2018.

George H.W. Bush's 1988 map in Illinois, the last time Republicans have won the state at the presidential level, is very similar to this, with Dukakis carrying those traditionally Democratic Downstate counties that you noted, in addition to Cook County. Bush of course dominated in the Collar Counties and held Dukakis under the 60% mark in Cook County-precisely the same combination as here-and prevailed by a narrow margin. In the modern era, I don't foresee Illinois voting Republican again anytime soon, certainly not at the presidential or Senatorial levels, unless if they can somehow regain lost ground in the Collar Counties and Suburban Cook County-and that would require a major ideological and partisan realignment. Cook County can obviate >70% or >80% Republican margins in Rural Illinois with the same ease as batting away a fly. No wonder why those counties hate Cook!