IL-Gov: How many counties will Pat Quinn win in 2014? (ROLLING)

[Mr. Illini]

Going to be using this as a rolling poll thread. I'll be posting my predictions and you can change your answers as time goes on.

April 15 Prediction:

5 counties; Quinn's 2010 map + Rock Island County

[MurrayBannerman]

Three at least, but I went with 4. He loses narrowly.

[henster]

Wouldn't be surprised with him winning just one while if he's losing maybe two or three if he wins.

[ElectionsGuy]

I said three. Cook, St. Clair, and Alexander. But it could be anywhere from one to five.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I'm betting between 16-30.

[ill ind]

3

Cook
St. Clair
Alexander (where there were more registered voters than actual people counted in the 2010 census)

Ill_Ind

[MurrayBannerman]

I'm betting between 16-30.

Wait, wut

[IceSpear]

Just Cook. But he may win anyway.

[Mr. Illini]

People really think that Alexander County is going to vote for a Republican?

The last time it did so in a Governor's race was 1994, when all 102 voted Republican.

The last time it did so in a Presidential? 1972, with 101 counties voting Republican.

An lastly for the Senate, the last time it voted Republican was also 1972.

And the county has just gotten more leftist as it becomes poorer and more deserted.

Quinn's floor is 2, IMO.

[Flake]

What option do you pick if you have five counties? 4-5 or 5-10?

[Gass3268]

I got 6. The 4 from 2010 plus Rock Island and Peoria.

[CatoMinor]

Going to be using this as a rolling poll thread. I'll be posting my predictions and you can change your answers as time goes on.

April 15 Prediction:

5 counties; Quinn's 2010 map + Rock Island County

Why would he pick up Rock Island?

[NewYorkExpress]

Just Cook, and even there it's close.

[Niemeyerite]

Just Cook, and even there it's close.

lolno

[Mr. Illini]

I got 6. The 4 from 2010 plus Rock Island and Peoria.

Strongly disagree. Knox, Fulton, Henry, Mercer, Whiteside, Champaign, and probably Lake and Will would all vote blue before Peoria. It may have fairly high population, but it is a very conservative town.

[Mr. Illini]

Going to be using this as a rolling poll thread. I'll be posting my predictions and you can change your answers as time goes on.

April 15 Prediction:

5 counties; Quinn's 2010 map + Rock Island County

Why would he pick up Rock Island?

Rock Island is more elastic than say Alexander or St. Claire, but on average I would say it produces the second highest Democratic margins in the state. It's in the middle of an already-liberal NW corridor in between the MS and IL rivers and the urban centers in the Quad Cities just amplify that.

Take, for instance, that it was only one of two IL counties where Obama broke 60% in 2012, the other being Cook.

[Badger]

Going to be using this as a rolling poll thread. I'll be posting my predictions and you can change your answers as time goes on.

April 15 Prediction:

5 counties; Quinn's 2010 map + Rock Island County

Why would he pick up Rock Island?

Rock Island is more elastic than say Alexander or St. Claire, but on average I would say it produces the second highest Democratic margins in the state. It's in the middle of an already-liberal NW corridor in between the MS and IL rivers and the urban centers in the Quad Cities just amplify that.

Take, for instance, that it was only one of two IL counties where Obama broke 60% in 2012, the other being Cook.

Then how did Quinn lose it last time?

[Mr. Illini]

Going to be using this as a rolling poll thread. I'll be posting my predictions and you can change your answers as time goes on.

April 15 Prediction:

5 counties; Quinn's 2010 map + Rock Island County

Why would he pick up Rock Island?

Rock Island is more elastic than say Alexander or St. Claire, but on average I would say it produces the second highest Democratic margins in the state. It's in the middle of an already-liberal NW corridor in between the MS and IL rivers and the urban centers in the Quad Cities just amplify that.

Take, for instance, that it was only one of two IL counties where Obama broke 60% in 2012, the other being Cook.

Then how did Quinn lose it last time?

Like I said, it is more elastic than Alexander and St. Clair, but it certainly has a higher percentage of loyal Democrats than those counties, IMO.

Not to mention that I have those other counties going Quinn regardless. It really isn't arguable that Rock Island would be next in line to go to Quinn after Cook, Alexander, Jackson, and St. Claire.

[TX Conservative Dem]

In both 2002 and 2006, how many counties out of 102 did Blagojevich carry against Ryan and Topinka respectively?

[NewYorkExpress]

Just Cook, and even there it's close.

lolno

Given I define 60-40 and in as close....

[ill ind]

Re: Alexander County


"The last time it did so in a Governor's race was 1994, when all 102 voted Republican."

  Yes Alexander county did go for the GOP in 1994, however, only 101 of the 102 counties were carried by their ticket.  Gallatin County went Democratic by 3 votes.

Alexander County isn't alone in becoming more thinly populated and poorer.  If you look at the last census county population estimates, you will see that only 21 out of 102 counties are actually gaining population.  Large swaths of the rural parts of Illinois are in decline.

Ill_Ind
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

[Mr. Illini]

Just Cook, and even there it's close.

lolno

Given I define 60-40 and in as close....

Quinn won't fall below 60% in Cook.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Going to be using this as a rolling poll thread. I'll be posting my predictions and you can change your answers as time goes on.

April 15 Prediction:

5 counties; Quinn's 2010 map + Rock Island County

Why would he pick up Rock Island?

Rock Island is more elastic than say Alexander or St. Claire, but on average I would say it produces the second highest Democratic margins in the state. It's in the middle of an already-liberal NW corridor in between the MS and IL rivers and the urban centers in the Quad Cities just amplify that.

Take, for instance, that it was only one of two IL counties where Obama broke 60% in 2012, the other being Cook.

Then how did Quinn lose it last time?

2010

[Mr. Illini]

All the way to now, I stick by 5 counties.

[Vega]

4-5.