1964: Kennedy/Johnson vs Goldwater/Tower

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

JFK is not assassinated, obviously. 1964 goes about the same, major events like the Gulf of Tonkin & the signing of the Civil Rights Act occur. Goldwater is nominated and picks John Tower from Texas as his running mate. What happens?

[MATTROSE94]

President John F. Kennedy (D-MA)/Vice-President Lyndon Johnson (D-TX): 415 Electoral Votes, 56.4%
Senator Barry Goldwater (R-AZ)/Senator John Tower (R-TX): 123 Electoral Votes, 42.6%
Other (Socialist Labor, Prohibition, Etc.): O Electoral Votes, 1%

As you can see by the map, Goldwater still loses big, but picks up Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska, Virginia, Florida, Oklahoma and Arkansas. In addition, Goldwater does somewhat better in the Northeast and Midwest.

[JRH1234]

I think this may have been a slightly larger margin than Kennedy would have gotten had he lived, but I do think he wins easily.  What he has going for him is the test-ban treaty and the economic boom of the 60s (the Kennedy-Johnson boom rivaled and may have exceeded the Reagan boom of 1983-1991 and the Clinton boom from 1993-2001).  I don't know that Kennedy gets the Civil Rights Act passed though.  He lacked Johnson's ability to move Congress (Kennedy was better at dealing with the public, but LBJ was a master legislative insider).  Plus, Johnson, being from the South, felt and probably in fact had more leverage with the South.  So I don't think Kennedy gets the Civil Rights Act passed, or at least not as strong as what Johnson passed.  How this effects the election, I'm not sure. 

[President Johnson]

Kennedy wins Florida, too.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Kennedy/Johnson 349
Goldwater/Tower 189

Goldwater would not have said some of the stupid things against Kennedy that he said against LBJ.  I believe that the entire South would have bolted over Civil Rights if Kennedy led the ticket.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Kennedy/Johnson 383 57%   
Goldwater/Tower 155 43%

Tower helps Goldwater win Texas and reinforces his strength in the South, but the pick is a bit of a drag in the North where it highlights Goldwater's opposition to the Civil Rights Act.  Still JFK does not do as well in most of the country as LBJ did IRL.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I'm thinking the Civil Rights Act of 1964 still passes due to LBJ pressuring the House and Senate (the VP can do the dirty work behind the scenes).

[MATTROSE94]

Kennedy wins Florida, too.

In RL, Lyndon Johnson only won it by 2 or 3 points against Barry Goldwater. Had Kennedy lived, Goldwater probably would have won Florida by a margin similar to the one George W. Bush received against John Kerry in 2004 (52-47).

[TX Conservative Dem]

Bigger question is how the Voting Rights Act of 1965 gets debated in Congress during JFK's 2nd term.

[TDAS04]

Kennedy/Johnson:  406
Goldwater/Tower:  132

[SPC]

Kennedy 56%
Goldwater 44%

[hcallega]

The CRA probably doesn't pass Congress in 1964, as it took a series of lucky events to get it passed when it did IOTL. I see it passing in early 1965 after Kennedy trounces the anti-CRA Goldwater. Dirksen will move to break the filibuster to avoid continued problems on Civil Rights. Here are my predictions for a second Kennedy term on major LBJ items:

-VRA: Can get passed at any point between 1965-1969. Much less controversial than the CRA. Comes down to how much effort/political capital Kennedy wants to spend on it.
-Medicare/Medicaid: Good chance of Medicare passing once Harry Byrd, Sr. passes away/steps down as Senate Finance Committee Chairman. IOTL he was dead set against passing it until Johnson gave him the 'treatment.' His sucessor, Russell Long, was much more supportive, as was House Ways and Means Chairman Wilbur Mills, who will get it passed with bipartisan support after the '64 elections. Medicaid may or may not get added to the package. 1966-'67
-Tax Cuts: Kennedy will have to agree to Byrd's proposed budget cuts if he wants it passed before the election, which he will. 1964.
-War on Poverty: One of JFK's last notes was 'POVERTY.' He also asked the head of the Census Bureau to analyze how taking on poverty would help him in 1964. That being said, JFK lacked the same emotional commitment to fighting poverty than LBJ, along with the lack of legislating skills. I'd expect greater funding for existing programs (Appalachia development, Food Stamps, AFDC, etc.) rather than the creation of new bureaucracies and programs.
-ESEA: Unlikely to pass for a few reasons. Mostly because JFK was trapped between Northern Catholic Democrats who wanted aid for parochial schools, but Dixiecrats wanted nothing of the sort. LBJ ultimately tied funding to students and not schools, and was largely successful because he wasn't Catholic.  Hard to see Kennedy pulling this one off.


Overall Kennedy can probably get most of the big items of the 'Great Society' passed in 1964 and 1965, but not everything. He also won't push for, nor would he get passed, as large of a War on Poverty than LBJ. I'm not touching Vietnam here, as that's a whole nother can of worms.