Who's likely to win the 2016 GOP South Carolina primary?
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  Who's likely to win the 2016 GOP South Carolina primary?
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Question: Who's likely to win 2016 South Carolina GOP primary?
#1
Chris Christie
 
#2
Scott Walker
 
#3
Jeb Bush
 
#4
Ted Cruz
 
#5
Mike Huckabee
 
#6
Paul Ryan
 
#7
Rand Paul
 
#8
Marco Rubio
 
#9
Rick Perry
 
#10
Rick Santorum
 
#11
Jon Huntsman
 
#12
John Kasich
 
#13
Peter King
 
#14
Ben Carson
 
#15
Mitt Romney
 
#16
Scott Brown
 
#17
Donald Trump
 
#18
Bobby Jindal
 
#19
Condi Rice
 
#20
Steve King
 
#21
Mike Pence
 
#22
Rob Portman
 
#23
Brian Sandoval
 
#24
Tim Pawlenty
 
#25
Newt Gingrich
 
#26
John Thune
 
#27
Nikki Haley
 
#28
Kelly Ayotte
 
#29
Sam Brownback
 
#30
Susana Martinez
 
#31
Haley Barbour
 
#32
Allen West
 
#33
Other
 
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Total Voters: 44

Author Topic: Who's likely to win the 2016 GOP South Carolina primary?  (Read 902 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: April 16, 2014, 08:39:42 AM »

Which 2016 GOP candidate is likely to win the First-in-the-South primaries, the state that "picks presidents"?
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2014, 11:05:22 AM »

Probably Bush. 
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bedstuy
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2014, 11:27:00 AM »

Probably Ted Cruz.  He's the strongest candidate at this point anyway.
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daveosupremo
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2014, 11:39:38 AM »

I think South Carolina will be the first real opportunity for Marco Rubio to shine. Walker will primarily focus on Iowa and Florida, Christie will focus on New Hampshire and Florida, Paul will be heavy in all four states, and Rubio will try to focus on the more traditional GOP voters in the south.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2014, 11:52:01 AM »

I think South Carolina will be the first real opportunity for Marco Rubio to shine. Walker will primarily focus on Iowa and Florida, Christie will focus on New Hampshire and Florida, Paul will be heavy in all four states, and Rubio will try to focus on the more traditional GOP voters in the south.

I strongly object to you identifying "traditional GOP voters" as socially conservative Southerners.

As for the OP, I'd guess Cruz or Rubio.
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Maistre
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« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2014, 12:03:08 PM »

I think South Carolina will be the first real opportunity for Marco Rubio to shine. Walker will primarily focus on Iowa and Florida, Christie will focus on New Hampshire and Florida, Paul will be heavy in all four states, and Rubio will try to focus on the more traditional GOP voters in the south.

I strongly object to you identifying "traditional GOP voters" as socially conservative Southerners.

As for the OP, I'd guess Cruz or Rubio.

Hey man, like us or not, your stuck with us.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2014, 02:54:50 PM »

Paul or Cruz
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2014, 04:04:32 PM »

I think South Carolina will be the first real opportunity for Marco Rubio to shine. Walker will primarily focus on Iowa and Florida, Christie will focus on New Hampshire and Florida, Paul will be heavy in all four states, and Rubio will try to focus on the more traditional GOP voters in the south.

I strongly object to you identifying "traditional GOP voters" as socially conservative Southerners.

As for the OP, I'd guess Cruz or Rubio.

Hey man, like us or not, your stuck with us.

I never said I didn't like you, but I'd say we are the more "traditional Republicans" of the two factions.  I highly doubt Lincoln, Eisenhower and even Reagan would be championing the Tea Party.
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Cory
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« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2014, 04:38:45 PM »

There is utterly zero need for most of those options to be present in the poll. Jesus.

Voted Walker.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2014, 05:07:14 PM »

It's early days, but given that Bush was leading in the Mississippi primary poll, he stands in good stead in SC.
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SPC
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« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2014, 05:34:10 PM »

South Carolina does have more moderates than one would expect from a Republican primary, so theoretically that should benefit Paul (when push comes to shove, I expect Paul's support base to more closely resemble that of his father's presidential bids than his Senate bid.) However, given his father's poor performances in South Carolina, it could also go for whomever emerges as the establishment candidate. Unless a single viable far-right emerges before the primary, I don't see that wing's standard bearer winning South Carolina.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2014, 05:53:31 PM »

I think South Carolina will be the first real opportunity for Marco Rubio to shine. Walker will primarily focus on Iowa and Florida, Christie will focus on New Hampshire and Florida, Paul will be heavy in all four states, and Rubio will try to focus on the more traditional GOP voters in the south.

Florida isn't one of the early states anymore.
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daveosupremo
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« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2014, 08:23:10 PM »

I think South Carolina will be the first real opportunity for Marco Rubio to shine. Walker will primarily focus on Iowa and Florida, Christie will focus on New Hampshire and Florida, Paul will be heavy in all four states, and Rubio will try to focus on the more traditional GOP voters in the south.

Florida isn't one of the early states anymore.

I stand corrected. That hurts Rubio, and maybe Walker too, but helps Paul out, because he'll do very well in Colorado. Walker will do well in Minnesota, so it may be a wash for him.
I still think Rubio does well in South Carolina. What I meant by traditional GOP voters is the more mainstream, pro-military socially and economically conservative wing of the GOP, more akin to a George W. Bush than a Ron'/Rand Paul. Rubio is ideologically very post-Reagan/pre-tea party GOP, which I think plays well throughout the south.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #13 on: April 16, 2014, 08:34:43 PM »

You need someone who can connect with enough of the evangelicals and the foreign-policy hawks and don't forget about the richers.


If Bush runs, probably him. I don't see Paul or Cruz doing well with this crowd.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: April 16, 2014, 10:52:40 PM »

Huckabee could totally win this, but again, he still lost to McCain in 08. The evangelical vote's role is important, if not a little over-stated. This is a much better state for the establishment candidate than either IA or NH.
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Flake
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« Reply #15 on: April 16, 2014, 10:58:03 PM »

Huckabee
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #16 on: April 17, 2014, 11:13:12 AM »

I am guessing either Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Mike Pence (if he decides to run) or Marco Rubio. Rick Santorum could have a shot there if the other ultra-conservative candidates decide to either not run or fizzle out due to campaign gaffes.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #17 on: April 17, 2014, 12:16:32 PM »

Of those showing interest in a run so far, Cruz and Huckabee look to me like the only two who could win it without first winning Iowa.
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whanztastic
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« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2014, 02:23:55 PM »

You need someone who can connect with enough of the evangelicals and the foreign-policy hawks and don't forget about the richers.


If Bush runs, probably him. I don't see Paul or Cruz doing well with this crowd.

That's Cruz's crowd.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2014, 04:25:15 PM »
« Edited: April 17, 2014, 04:28:07 PM by Illini142 »

I think South Carolina will be the first real opportunity for Marco Rubio to shine. Walker will primarily focus on Iowa and Florida, Christie will focus on New Hampshire and Florida, Paul will be heavy in all four states, and Rubio will try to focus on the more traditional GOP voters in the south.

I strongly object to you identifying "traditional GOP voters" as socially conservative Southerners.

As for the OP, I'd guess Cruz or Rubio.

Hey man, like us or not, your stuck with us.

I never said I didn't like you, but I'd say we are the more "traditional Republicans" of the two factions.  I highly doubt Lincoln, Eisenhower and even Reagan would be championing the Tea Party.

Lincoln and Eisenhower don't embody anything similar to the modern GOP, and Reagan would likely be similar to a Scott Walker-level involvement in the Tea Party.

You seem to overcompensate for New England Republicans in most of these threads. You don't have to pretend like you guys run the GOP. If you did, your reputation would only decline due to the state that the GOP is in right now.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #20 on: April 17, 2014, 04:42:10 PM »

Cruz or Paul.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #21 on: April 17, 2014, 06:07:41 PM »

I think South Carolina will be the first real opportunity for Marco Rubio to shine. Walker will primarily focus on Iowa and Florida, Christie will focus on New Hampshire and Florida, Paul will be heavy in all four states, and Rubio will try to focus on the more traditional GOP voters in the south.

I strongly object to you identifying "traditional GOP voters" as socially conservative Southerners.

As for the OP, I'd guess Cruz or Rubio.

Hey man, like us or not, your stuck with us.

I never said I didn't like you, but I'd say we are the more "traditional Republicans" of the two factions.  I highly doubt Lincoln, Eisenhower and even Reagan would be championing the Tea Party.

Lincoln and Eisenhower don't embody anything similar to the modern GOP, and Reagan would likely be similar to a Scott Walker-level involvement in the Tea Party.

You seem to overcompensate for New England Republicans in most of these threads. You don't have to pretend like you guys run the GOP. If you did, your reputation would only decline due to the state that the GOP is in right now.

Eisenhower was arguably the most fiscally conservative President since WWII; it's a liberal myth that Obama is somehow the legacy of old school Republicans.  Simply wishful thinking (I guess if my party had an embarrassing history of racism, I might have incentive to rewrite history, too, though).  And considering Reagan pragmatically raised taxes when he needed to and pushed for sensible gun control, I think the Tea Partiers would be shouting RINO.  And how do I act like we're running the party?  I've never even come close to making that assertion.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2014, 06:11:20 PM »

I think South Carolina will be the first real opportunity for Marco Rubio to shine. Walker will primarily focus on Iowa and Florida, Christie will focus on New Hampshire and Florida, Paul will be heavy in all four states, and Rubio will try to focus on the more traditional GOP voters in the south.

I strongly object to you identifying "traditional GOP voters" as socially conservative Southerners.

As for the OP, I'd guess Cruz or Rubio.

Hey man, like us or not, your stuck with us.

I never said I didn't like you, but I'd say we are the more "traditional Republicans" of the two factions.  I highly doubt Lincoln, Eisenhower and even Reagan would be championing the Tea Party.

Lincoln and Eisenhower don't embody anything similar to the modern GOP, and Reagan would likely be similar to a Scott Walker-level involvement in the Tea Party.

You seem to overcompensate for New England Republicans in most of these threads. You don't have to pretend like you guys run the GOP. If you did, your reputation would only decline due to the state that the GOP is in right now.

Eisenhower was arguably the most fiscally conservative President since WWII; it's a liberal myth that Obama is somehow the legacy of old school Republicans.  Simply wishful thinking (I guess if my party had an embarrassing history of racism, I might have incentive to rewrite history, too, though).  And considering Reagan pragmatically raised taxes when he needed to and pushed for sensible gun control, I think the Tea Partiers would be shouting RINO.  And how do I act like we're running the party?  I've never even come close to making that assertion.

The Eisenhower rates were 90%. How on earth is that fiscal conservatism?

It's a pure fiction to claim that Ronald Reagan, overall, raised taxes. He did so in certain circumstances in order to save the budget, but you can't call cutting the top rate from 70% all the way down to 28% by the end of his term "raising taxes".
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morgieb
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« Reply #23 on: April 18, 2014, 06:53:15 AM »

Probably Bush if he runs. If Huckster runs he'll also be well-placed. Otherwise it kinda depends on Iowa.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #24 on: April 18, 2014, 09:15:29 AM »

Bush is the best guess.
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