ME-Pan Atlantic SMS Group: Gov. LePage (R) leading for the first time

[Tender Branson]

The new SMS Pan Atlantic 43rd Omnibus poll will show Governor Paul LePage in the lead for the first time since Congressman Michael Michaud and Eliot Cutler entered the race. Michaud will be in second and Cutler in third.

The official numbers, along with the full poll, will not be released until 10 am. Look for stories later or go to Pan Atlantic SMS Group.

http://agreetodisagree.bangordailynews.com/2014/04/16/maine-politics/new-poll-will-show-gov-lepage-leading-race

[windjammer]

This poll is extremely biased.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_gubernatorial_election,_2014

[Potatoe]

I call bull, what the hell has LePage done to actually rebound?

[Tender Branson]

This poll is extremely biased.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_gubernatorial_election,_2014

How so ?

Their results are not much different than PPP polls that were done at the same time they did their polls ...

[windjammer]

This poll is extremely biased.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_gubernatorial_election,_2014

How so ?

Their results are not much different than PPP polls that were done at the same time they did their polls ...

1) They use decimals.
2) Now PPP is saying that Michaud leads by 8, a 6 points increase compared with the last time. So now, it's impossible Lepage is leading right now.

[Tender Branson]

This poll is extremely biased.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_gubernatorial_election,_2014

How so ?

Their results are not much different than PPP polls that were done at the same time they did their polls ...

1) They use decimals.
2) Now PPP is saying that Michaud leads by 8, a 6 points increase compared with the last time. So now, it's impossible Lepage is leading right now.

Using decimals does not make a poll wrong: That's like saying a car is worse just because it has a seat warming system, which another car has not.

And: Nothing is impossible. But I'd like to see other polls as well.

[windjammer]

This poll is extremely biased.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_gubernatorial_election,_2014

How so ?

Their results are not much different than PPP polls that were done at the same time they did their polls ...

1) They use decimals.
2) Now PPP is saying that Michaud leads by 8, a 6 points increase compared with the last time. So now, it's impossible Lepage is leading right now.

Using decimals does not make a poll wrong: That's like saying a car is worse just because it has a seat warming system, which another car has not.

And: Nothing is impossible. But I'd like to see other polls as well.

No, this is like saying a car from a company is failing because all previous cars built by the company failed before

[Tender Branson]

This poll is extremely biased.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_gubernatorial_election,_2014

How so ?

Their results are not much different than PPP polls that were done at the same time they did their polls ...

1) They use decimals.
2) Now PPP is saying that Michaud leads by 8, a 6 points increase compared with the last time. So now, it's impossible Lepage is leading right now.

Using decimals does not make a poll wrong: That's like saying a car is worse just because it has a seat warming system, which another car has not.

And: Nothing is impossible. But I'd like to see other polls as well.

No, this is like saying a car from a company is failing because all previous cars built by the company failed before

Well, if it helps - Pan SMS group had much better polls than a lot of other pollsters in the 2010 Gov. race (especially better polls than PPP).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/me/maine_governor_lepage_vs_mitchell_vs_cutler-1231.html

They also did well in 2012 (Pres. and Senate).

[windjammer]

This poll is extremely biased.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_gubernatorial_election,_2014

How so ?

Their results are not much different than PPP polls that were done at the same time they did their polls ...

1) They use decimals.
2) Now PPP is saying that Michaud leads by 8, a 6 points increase compared with the last time. So now, it's impossible Lepage is leading right now.

Using decimals does not make a poll wrong: That's like saying a car is worse just because it has a seat warming system, which another car has not.

And: Nothing is impossible. But I'd like to see other polls as well.

No, this is like saying a car from a company is failing because all previous cars built by the company failed before

Well, if it helps - Pan SMS group had much better polls than a lot of other pollsters in the 2010 Gov. race (especially better polls than PPP).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/me/maine_governor_lepage_vs_mitchell_vs_cutler-1231.html

They also did well in 2012 (Pres. and Senate).

I'm still highly sceptical aboiut this pollster.

[SPC]

Could you unskew this poll for us Windjammer?

[free my dawg]

My heart breaks for Maine!

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

This actually seems plausible, or rather, wrong for a reason other than the pollster being bad. I don't think that being in the high thirties constitutes a 'rebound' for LePage--which, yeah, there would really be no reason for if so--so much as just the high end of the possible poll results one might expect to see. I still fully expect Michaud to win but, well, if he doesn't, we'll know who to blame. (Hint! It slant-rhymes with 'buckler'.)

[Tender Branson]

LePage is up 1.3 points:

38.6 LePage
37.3 Michaud
20.3 Cutler

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/PanAtlanticSMS_0414.pdf

[Хahar 🤔]

This poll is extremely biased.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_gubernatorial_election,_2014

How so ?

Their results are not much different than PPP polls that were done at the same time they did their polls ...

1) They use decimals.
2) Now PPP is saying that Michaud leads by 8, a 6 points increase compared with the last time. So now, it's impossible Lepage is leading right now.

Using decimals does not make a poll wrong: That's like saying a car is worse just because it has a seat warming system, which another car has not.

And: Nothing is impossible. But I'd like to see other polls as well.

No, the issue with the inclusion of decimals is that it indicates that the pollster doesn't understand significant figures.

[Badger]

Isn't this a notably higher figure for Cutler than any recent poll? If so, therein lies the rub.....