Senate Ratings

[free my dawg]

Safe D:
Delaware
Hawaii (MAYBE if Lingle runs, it turns into 2010, and the primary is bloody enough she can break 40)
Illinois (lol oberweis)
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico (Some Dude)
Rhode Island
Virginia (The most Gillespie will get is mid-to-high 40s. Warner is a perfect fit for VA)

Likely D:
Minnesota (McFadden and Ortman don't strike me as competitive candidates)
New Hampshire (At most, the libertarian will wind up spoiling, but this probably won't happen. Nominating Brown is the quickest way to depress conservative turnout. Garcia would have been much better served going straight for Senate here, and I think the GOP threw away this seat)
Oregon (Conger is not a credible challenger. He is a socon, not a Paulite. If a Paulite with enough experience emerges, s/he could beat Merkley, but it's highly doubtful)

Leans D:
Colorado (Gardner seems to be downplaying his social moderation, unlike Buck, but Udall is still stronger than expected)
Iowa (Candidates suck, but Braley's gaffe could haunt him)
Michigan (Told you Democrats would come home to Peters)

Tilts D:
Alaska (Because of Begich's superior campaign skills, I believe he could very well hold on)
North Carolina (Tillis strikes me as extremely weak, and Brannon is even worse. Another competitive seat Pubs threw away)

Toss-up:
Louisiana (Landrieu is strong, but the tide might be too strong for her to hold on, even against Generic R)

Tilts R:
Arkansas (Pryor seems to not actually be as foolish as Blanche, and if he actually pushed a $10 wage he'd probably be even with Cotton)
Georgia (Leans R with Kingston/Perdue, Tilts R with Handel, Toss-up with Gingrey, and Tilts D with Broun averages somewhere between a tilt and a lean)

Leans R:
Kentucky (Mitch is Mitch and will probably win by a solid 3-5)
Montana (Walsh has a decent chance still if he builds up name recog, but the race is clearly in Daines' favor)

Likely R:
Kansas (Taylor vs. Wolf will probably end up in a Taylor victory)
Mississippi (There's an outside chance Childers would win against McDaniel)
West Virginia (Capito is just too strong for Tennant to overcome)

Safe R:
Everything else (including South Dakota, because Weiland is a Some Dude, and Maine, because if a blue state Republican broke 60% in 2008, they pretty much can't lose.)

[Potatoe]

Sawx, how is Mitch being Mitch a positive thing?

[free my dawg]

Sawx, how is Mitch being Mitch a positive thing?

I never said it was. I'm just saying, it's well-known that he has a huge warchest and he's simply waiting for the moment to use it. Coupled with the fact that the climate is somewhere in between 2002 and 2010, and he's clearly favored.

[Potatoe]

Sawx, how is Mitch being Mitch a positive thing?

I never said it was. I'm just saying, it's well-known that he has a huge warchest and he's simply waiting for the moment to use it. Coupled with the fact that the climate is somewhere in between 2002 and 2010, and he's clearly favored.

Have you looked at any polling at all? How is he clearly favoured?

[Maxwell]

Sawx, how is Mitch being Mitch a positive thing?

I never said it was. I'm just saying, it's well-known that he has a huge warchest and he's simply waiting for the moment to use it. Coupled with the fact that the climate is somewhere in between 2002 and 2010, and he's clearly favored.

Have you looked at any polling at all? How is he clearly favoured?

Go back through Sawx's post, only with the new bold I put on to make it look fancy.

[RogueBeaver]

Fundamentals and environment. I've posted the psephological articles before.

[Potatoe]

Sawx, how is Mitch being Mitch a positive thing?

I never said it was. I'm just saying, it's well-known that he has a huge warchest and he's simply waiting for the moment to use it. Coupled with the fact that the climate is somewhere in between 2002 and 2010, and he's clearly favored.

Have you looked at any polling at all? How is he clearly favoured?

Go back through Sawx's post, only with the new bold I put on to make it look fancy.

Do you have evidence of this mysterious war chest?

[free my dawg]

Sawx, how is Mitch being Mitch a positive thing?

I never said it was. I'm just saying, it's well-known that he has a huge warchest and he's simply waiting for the moment to use it. Coupled with the fact that the climate is somewhere in between 2002 and 2010, and he's clearly favored.

Have you looked at any polling at all? How is he clearly favoured?

It's Kentucky. It's the state that re-elected Jim Bunning after he compared his opponent to Saddam Hussein. It's much less friendly to Democrats at the congressional level than at the state. People are pissed at Obama out in Coal Country.

[Maxwell]

Sawx, how is Mitch being Mitch a positive thing?

I never said it was. I'm just saying, it's well-known that he has a huge warchest and he's simply waiting for the moment to use it. Coupled with the fact that the climate is somewhere in between 2002 and 2010, and he's clearly favored.

Have you looked at any polling at all? How is he clearly favoured?

Go back through Sawx's post, only with the new bold I put on to make it look fancy.

Do you have evidence of this mysterious war chest?

How does 10 Million in Cash on hand sound? The most cursory Google search will show that.

[free my dawg]

Sawx, how is Mitch being Mitch a positive thing?

I never said it was. I'm just saying, it's well-known that he has a huge warchest and he's simply waiting for the moment to use it. Coupled with the fact that the climate is somewhere in between 2002 and 2010, and he's clearly favored.

Have you looked at any polling at all? How is he clearly favoured?

Go back through Sawx's post, only with the new bold I put on to make it look fancy.

Do you have evidence of this mysterious war chest?

Quite a bit.

[Potatoe]

Sawx, how is Mitch being Mitch a positive thing?

I never said it was. I'm just saying, it's well-known that he has a huge warchest and he's simply waiting for the moment to use it. Coupled with the fact that the climate is somewhere in between 2002 and 2010, and he's clearly favored.

Have you looked at any polling at all? How is he clearly favoured?

It's Kentucky. It's the state that re-elected Jim Bunning after he compared his opponent to Saddam Hussein. It's much less friendly to Democrats at the congressional level than at the state. People are pissed at Obama out in Coal Country.
[/quote.    The state is very capable of electing Democrats, and polling has shown every thing from McConnell winning by 1.7 to Grimes winning by 2, that's not Lean R.

[free my dawg]

Did you even read my post?

Honest question. It's pretty clear Kentucky doesn't like electing Democrats to represent them in Congress. The state level is a totally different story, but federally, Kentucky has always been our Michigan: so close, but every time, we miss out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY and GA aren't gonna tip the senate. AR/AK and NC will tip the Senate. AK/AR has Min wage iniatives on ballot and they will decide the senate. One of those+NC+IA will give us 50 seats. 51 with the runoffs in GA/La.

[moderatevoter]

Alaska's minimum wage initiative is NOT on the November ballot. It is on the August 19 primary one.

[Tender Branson]

Update (AR, IA & MI to "Slight DEM"):

The OK and SC special elections are of course "Strong GOP".

[moderatevoter]

Basically agree, but think the switch in Arkansas is a little sudden or early.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Don't know if this has been posted in a different thread before, but what's everyone's take on it?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/04/17/could_democrats_gain_senate_seats_this_fall_122301.html

It's wishful thinking for a hopeful Democrat.

[bballrox4717]

Alabama- Safe R-

Alaska- Tossup: I'd move it to Lean D if Miller runs as an independent or wins the primary. Honestly I'm not impressed by either Sullivan or Treadwell. This seat is probably the one that decides control of the Senate IMO.

Arkansas- Tossup: Was tempted to place this as tilt R but Pryor seems to have put it back onto the column for now. I've been waiting for Cotton to pull away at this race for months. If Republicans win this matchup, this should be the 49th seat they take.

Colorado- Tilt D: Gardner's in because he smells blood but it would be tough to take out Udall even in a Republican wave. If Republicans win this should be the 55th seat they take.

Delaware- Safe D
 
Georgia- Tossup: If Perdue wins the primary it's tilt R, but we have a while until we know what happens.

Illinois- Likely D

Idaho- Safe R

Iowa- Tilt D: Hopefully Braley doesn't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This would be the 54th seat Republicans get if they win this matchup.

Kansas- Likely R

Kentucky- Tossup: I understand the folks who are convinced that McConnell has too much organization in a clearly red state to lose, but when Grimes has consistently been tied with or him or even slightly leading him, you can't argue with that. McConnell is running a sh**ty campaign and has piss poor approval ratings. There are ways for Republicans to win the Senate without him, so don't be surprised if some Republicans stay him if he wins the primary.

Louisiana- Tossup/tilt R: I used to be pretty confident about Landrieu, but despite a pretty solid campaign so far she's still losing ground. Honestly, if Landrieu were in Alaska, Arkansas or Montana, I think she'd have a better chance. If it goes to a run-off I'd be tempted to even move this to lean R. If Republicans win this, this seat probably ties the Senate, with Biden being the tiebreaker.

Maine- Likely R

Massachusetts- Safe D

Michigan- Tossup: Polls suggest Land's leading but Peters has done nothing so far to convince me he'll lose the way that McConnell has. I expect this state to move to tilt D by the start of Fall. If Republicans win this, this is the 53rd seat they take in the Senate.

Minnesota- Likely D: Republicans aren't challenging the seat, which is surprising given the way Franken won it.

Mississippi- Safe R for Cochran, tilt R/tossup for McDaniel. If McDaniel runs, I expect the race to run similarly to Mourdock in Indiana. if he avoids an Akin like gaffe he'd narrowly beat Childers IMO.

Montana- Tilt R: Personally I think Daines is making the same mistakes as Rehberg and if Walsh is competent the race should be a tossup by the fall. I expect to switch this state with Arkansas later on. If Republicans win this state it would be the 48th seat they take.
 
Nebraska- Likely R

New Hampshire- Lean D: It's only going to flip in a Republican wave. This is the 56th seat the Republicans take if they win.

New Jersey- Safe D

New Mexico- Safe D

North Carolina- Tossup: Hagan seems to have a narrow edge and barring any major gaffes should hold this. There may be nothing she can do if the turf gets even worse for the Democrats though. This is the 52nd seat the Republicans take if they win.

Oklahoma "A"- Safe R

Oklahoma "B"- Safe R

Oregon- Likely D

Rhode Island- Safe D

South Carolina "A"- Safe R

South Carolina "B"- Safe R

South Dakota- Lean R: Rounds seems to have this one down against Weiland. This is the 47th seat the Republicans take if they win.

Tennessee- Safe R

Texas- Safe R

Virginia- Lean D: I don't even think Warner loses in a wave unless Obama is at Bush/Nixon approval ratings. This is the 57th seat the Republicans take if they win.

West Virginia- Lean R: I like Tennant and Capito seems to have some problems, but West Virginia seems pretty happy to ditch any D that isn't an incumbent. This is the 46th and first seat the Republicans take if they win.

Wyoming- Safe R

Republican Ceiling: 57 seats (+12 gain)

Democratic Ceiling: 58 seats (+3 gain)

Current Prediction: Democrats hold Senate with 51 seats.

[publicunofficial]

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Toss-Up/Tilt D
Arkansas: Toss-Up
Colorado: Lean D
Delaware: Safe D
Georgia: Lean R
Hawaii (S): Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Safe D
Iowa: Lean D
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Toss-Up
Maine: Safe R
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Lean D
Minnesota: Likely D
Mississippi: Likely R
Montana: Lean R
Nebraska: Safe R
New Hampshire: Likely D
New Jersey: Safe D
New Mexico: Safe D
North Carolina: Toss-Up
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oklahoma (S): Safe R
Oregon: Likely D
Rhode Island: Safe D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Carolina (S): Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Virginia: Likely D
West Virginia: Lean R
Wyoming: Safe R

[Tender Branson]

Update (CO to "Slight DEM" because of a Republican internal showing Udall ahead, MI back to "Tossup" because 2 polls showing Land ahead, which cancels out the PPP poll showing Peters ahead):

The OK and SC special elections are of course "Strong GOP".

[Tender Branson]

Update (CO back to tossup, because of 2 polls today):

The OK and SC special elections are of course "Strong GOP".

3 pickups for the GOP: MT, SD and WV