Windjammer, you're forgetting this is Kansas. I do doubt that Wolf ousts Roberts, for the record.
Of course, that's why this primary is rated likely Roberts!
Roberts will win. But you seem to underestimate the capacity of tea partier to screw races when they get the nomination. Mccaskill won by 14 point in Missouri with 40% approval and an unpopular Obama!
Missouri is a purple state. Kansas is as red (or Atlas blue) as you get.
kansas is roughly 12 points more republican than missouri. 12 < 14.
i think, of course, that it's highly unlikely sebelius wins this, but against the tea-party guy it is certainly possible.