Will Marion County, Indiana vote Republican in the next few election cycles?

[JRP1994]

There's been a massive swing in the past 5 election cycles

1996: Dole wins 47% to 44% (Perot takes 8%)
2000: Bush wins 49% to 48% (Nader's 1% was smaller than Bush's margin of victory, and Nader finished behind Browne)
2004: Kerry wins 51% to 49%
2008: Obama wins 64% to 35%
2012: Obama wins 60% to 38%

Will Marion County/Indianapolis vote Republican in the near future, and if so, when?

[GaussLaw]

No, Republican cities often follow the same pattern:
-Republicans move from city limits to inner-ring suburbs
-Republicans move from inner-ring suburbs to further out suburbs.
-Republicans move from further out suburbs to exurbs.   

And then minority or other Democrat coalition voters become the majority in the city.  This is the case in cities like Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, and Indianapolis.

[TDAS04]

No, not in the near future.  Obama still carried it by 22 points last time while losing Indiana by 10.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

No, the demographics of the city (like the US as a whole) has changed and is rapidly changing. Gore coming close and Kerry winning outright shows this isn't just an Obama-era thing (he just jacked up the margins to ridiculous levels).

As long as current trends continue, Marion County (as well as Lake, St. Joseph, LaPorte, Delaware, Monroe, and Perry) will vote Democrat for the forseeable future.

[Mr. Illini]

It will not as the urban-rural divide grows.

[ElectionsGuy]

No. It is now voting like a typical Midwest city, with traditionally conservative suburbs.

[Smash255]

Lol, no

[TJ in Oregon]

As long as current trends continue, Marion County (as well as Lake, St. Joseph, LaPorte, Delaware, Monroe, and Perry) will vote Democrat for the forseeable future.

I agree on the rest, but I don't think it's certain at all that St. Joseph, Delaware, and Perry will all vote Democrat for the forseeable future. St. Joseph and Delaware both snapped considerably back toward the Republicans in 2012 and will likely vote for the GOP if the GOP ever wins a presidential election. Both were closer than the national margin. Perry has been discussed extensively already, but simply because it's held out from the Republican trends of the surrounding counties thus far doesn't necessarily mean it will forever.

[stevekamp]

No, it was the biggest county level D raw margin gain 2004-2008 in the entire USA, and in 2012 there was about 30 thousand Obama margin drop, but the Republican vote is moving out to suburbs like Hamilton County.

Interesting that Mayor Richard Lugar set up Unigov to merge all of Marion County into one local govt. unit to prevent urban core dominance, but Democrats now dominate the county.