IL-Sen: Sen. Kirk re-opens campaign Facebook page

[Mr. Illini]

I know it's a ways out, but Sen. Kirk's campaign Facebook page (he has a separate page for his office) was inactive for a long time. On April 2, he appears to have deactivated and then reactivated it, and has now been posting updates on it.

https://www.facebook.com/KirkForSenate?ref=profile

Seems like some sort of an indication that he will run again, albeit small.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Kirk will get reelected in 2016.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Kirk will get reelected in 2016.

I think if Pat Quinn is reelected this year, Kirk inevitably loses in 2016 (s/o to Cook County).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kirk will get reelected in 2016.

Just like Tom Corbett this year, right?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kirk will get reelected in 2016.

Mark Kirk who embellished his military service record stated clearly that he was the only member of Congress to serve in Iraqi freedom, which he clearly wasnt at the time. Ginnoulius who had a banking Scandle and no military service couldn't exploit that. Tammy Duckworth, who all but said, she's running, a Max Cleland female, who lost limbs in that same conflict will be able to exploit that. And get more female votes.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Big question is whether Kirk will hope for a nasty Democratic primary for him to get reelected.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the military service record speaks for itself on who we are gonna nominate, Madigan will forgo the senate seat and run for gov. Serving in Iraqi freedom like Duckworth did, or during, stateside, like Kirk did, speaks for itself. This seat will be easy pickings with a Hilary run.

But, if Simon doesn't win the comptroller's seat, she would be viable as well, fom being from Carbondale.

[henster]

I think the primary would be clear for Madigan should she run and I couldn't see her losing in a GE either. I think Reid/Obama/DSCC would lobby her very hard into running because she would have the easiest time winning. And apparently she was interested in 2010 but wanted the WH to clear the primary for her.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If she gets the word from Hilary she would run, but if she doesn't we have two other females who make it competetive.

[free my dawg]

I think Simon takes a stab at it and wins. Madigan doesn't strike me as a Washington-type.

[moderatevoter]

As I mentioned before, my roommate, who is from Chicago and has some political connections, seems to think Madigan is set on Governor instead of Senate, and that she doesn't want to go to Washington. Whether it's what happens is another story, but that's what he thinks.

[henster]

As I mentioned before, my roommate, who is from Chicago and has some political connections, seems to think Madigan is set on Governor instead of Senate, and that she doesn't want to go to Washington. Whether it's what happens is another story, but that's what he thinks.

If she wanted the Governorship she would have ran this year and defeated Quinn in the primary when he is as weak as he is now. I think one of the reasons she passed on being Governor is that she was interested in the Senate seat in 2016. Otherwise she would have to hedge her chances that either Quinn is still Governor by 2018 and is termed out or Rauner is Governor and is unpopular which is not guaranteed.

[RogueBeaver]

I remember reports that she didn't run because her father wouldn't surrender the gavel.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Her father would die in office for Lisa to be Governor.

Springfield is much better than DC.

[henster]

Her father would die in office for Lisa to be Governor.

Springfield is much better than DC.

Being a Senator is much easier than being Governor especially a state in such poor shape as IL is. I'm not sure why she would  like being a Governor more than a Senator and she wouldn't have to deal with her father in DC.

[sg0508]

As we've all discussed, it will be a big uphill battle for him, especially in a presidential year where the Democratic nominee will probably win 55-60% in IL and where many more democrats will show up to the polls. I figured he had name recognition, but I was surprised to read he lacks that.

It's going to be tough.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Go ahead and call me crazy, but I think he could win.  Yes, it will be tough, especially if Madigan runs against him, but he's still an incumbent, and if 2016 is a strong GOP year (which I doubt at this point), he could manage to hold on.  After all, he is much more moderate and a better fit for Illinois than most Republicans.

[sg0508]

Go ahead and call me crazy, but I think he could win.  Yes, it will be tough, especially if Madigan runs against him, but he's still an incumbent, and if 2016 is a strong GOP year (which I doubt at this point), he could manage to hold on.  After all, he is much more moderate and a better fit for Illinois than most Republicans.

That's fair, but you don't really see the minority party (in a state) hold onto too many Senate seats in presidential years any longer.  It happens of course, but IL is a tough go and Democrats are likely to get 70% in Cook County with much heavier turnout than in '10.  Kirk lost Cook 62-31% I believe which turnout down.  The numbers just don't seem to really add up.  If he had the name recognition and overall state popularity backing him, then maybe.

That being said, he is from the "collar", which is always the crucial swing areas of the state. So, who knows?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

However, moderate male GOP have been a dying breed lately. SMC and Collins who are female moderates, are clear locks for their respective races. But, Scott Brown, Lincoln Chafee and Arlen Specter and Gordon Smith, they have been def one after the other.

Again, he embellished his service record stating he was the only member of Congress to serve in Iraqi freedom. But, he served stateside during, not in the war. Where, Duckworth, clearly did and lost her limbs.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Has Duckworth indicated any interest of pursuing statewide office such as running for the United States Senate in 2016 ?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This article has an interesting take on 2016 IL senate race http://atr.rollcall.com/kirk-vs-duckworth-for-senate-in-2016/

She will vie for reelection in 2014 of course. But, despite the fact she won in 2012, her district votes GOP, especially in  prez yrs and she may want our in 2016. She won over a teabagger, Walsh.

[DrScholl]

Kirk barely beat an opponent with ethics questions in a heavily Republican year, so he definitely has his work cut out for him against a clean, credible opponent in a Presidential year.

Duckworth is a probable candidate. I would say that Bustos could be a possible candidate, but I don't see the state ending up with two Senators from outside of Chicagoland (Durbin is from downstate).

[henster]

Duckworth is a backup candidate in case Madigan doesn't run but she would no trouble beating Kirk either.

[Mr. Illini]

Kirk will get reelected in 2016.

I think if Pat Quinn is reelected this year, Kirk inevitably loses in 2016 (s/o to Cook County).

Illinois likes Mark Kirk a lot more than they like Bruce Rauner. Not saying Kirk will necessarily get reelected, but that is at least fair to say, in my opinion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unlike Quinn, the Dems will have a top recruit in 2016, to challenge Kirk, and Duck worth or Madigan shall win.They may tie him to the GOP in the state legislature who have lower approvals than Quinn, who might slip by and also the one who challenges Kirk.