Obama 2012 vs. Hillary 2016 trend

[IceSpear]

If we assume that Hillary wins by the same margin Obama did in 2012 (51-47), what is the trend map? Here's my guess:

[SWE]

Hillary will almost certainly do worse than Obama in New York. Obama did exceptionally well here, even by Democratic standards, thanks to increased African American turnout and increased turnout thanks to Sandy, which won't be there for Hillary

[MATTROSE94]

What state do you believe will trend the most to Hillary and what state do you think will trend the most Republican in 2016?

[IceSpear]

What state do you believe will trend the most to Hillary and what state do you think will trend the most Republican in 2016?

Arkansas and Hawaii.

If we're excluding states that had/will have home state or pseudo home state effects, then West Virginia and Colorado.

[IceSpear]

Hillary will almost certainly do worse than Obama in New York. Obama did exceptionally well here, even by Democratic standards, thanks to increased African American turnout and increased turnout thanks to Sandy, which won't be there for Hillary

NY was a tough one. Hillary should get a home state effect, but that may be cancelled out by Sandy as you said. I could see it going either way.

[Skill and Chance]

If it's more of a generic D/generic R situation and Hillary as a candidate doesn't have a special brand:

If Hillary has a quasi-3rd party brand with rural Dems and older voters but some problems in the suburbs relative to Obama:

Basically everything gets less polarized in this scenario.

[tarheel-leftist85]

[Tieteobserver]

I can't understand...NY going republican?

[SWE]

I can't understand...NY going republican?

No, the prediction is Hillary will do worse there than Obama

[tarheel-leftist85]

Atlas colors?

[Tieteobserver]

I can't understand...NY going republican?

No, the prediction is Hillary will do worse there than Obama

See it. And why would be that? Seems that almost everyone agrees that she'd fare worst in NY than Obama did, even though thats actually her home state...

[tarheel-leftist85]

Swing red = Swing toward Hillary ...

[Tieteobserver]

Swing red = Swing toward Hillary ...

Oh sure. Got so used to the inverted colour scheme (R-Red, D-Blue) commonly used on the US that I forgot that here you guys use the colours as does the rest of the world (Left Wing-Red, Right Wing-Blue).

[Nichlemn]

Not sure how much of a home state advantage Clinton would have in NY, if anything. She moved there to run for Senate, and will have been out of the Senate for 8 years come 2016.

[SWE]

I can't understand...NY going republican?

No, the prediction is Hillary will do worse there than Obama

See it. And why would be that? Seems that almost everyone agrees that she'd fare worst in NY than Obama did, even though thats actually her home state...

Obama effectively maxed out his support here thanks to Sandy, and I don't no anyone who thinks of New York as Hilary's home state

[pbrower2a]

I can't understand...NY going republican?

Hardly. It suggests that the polarization of statewide results will not be as severe. In 2/3 of America, America voted in a landslide for Barack Obama, who got margins characteristic of Ronald Reagan in 1984. In the other third he lost by margins typical for George McGovern in 1972. Such is abnormal in America; it suggests cultural rifts between the States.

In most Presidential elections, most states are within 5% of the national average. Such was not so in 2008 or 2012. That could be Barack Obama.