palandio
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,026
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« on: April 22, 2014, 01:32:17 PM » |
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« edited: April 22, 2014, 03:10:18 PM by palandio »
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Be careful not to mess up correlations between past and present voting behavior with correlations between historical borders and present voting behavior.
On topic:
1) Past and present voting behavior:
a) Austria proper: Strong correlation between inter-war results and current results. For example Carinthia was already a (relative) stronghold of the Third Camp, today's Vienna working class quarters and Upper Styria were SPÖ strongholds, Tyrol and the rural parts of Upper and Lower Austria were Christian Social strongholds. (Thanks to Tender for the source!) This probably extends back to Imperial times. I remember having seen a source on the internet about who won which constituency on the internet, hopefully I can find it again.
2) Historical borders and present voting behavior:
a) Romania: Territories that once belonged to Hungary are less pro-PSD (post-communists).
b) Ukraine: Ex-Galicia (the oblasts of Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk) belonged to Cisleithania before WWI. It supported Viktor Yushtchenko over Yulia Timoshenko and it is a stronghold of the far-right Svoboda Party. Its voting behavior is really different from the rest of Western Ukraine (you might say more extreme).
The oblast of Ushhorod on the other hand belonged to Hungary before WWI and it had relatively mixed results in 2012 with Viktor Yanukovich's Party of Regions as the strongest party due to a divided opposition and the highest support for Vitali Klitchko's UDAR of any oblast (after Kiev).
Finally the oblast of Chernivzi (Western part in ex-Cisleithania, smaller Eastern part in ex-Russian Empire, small Hertsa region in ex-Kingdom of Romania) still has a sizeable ethnic Romanian minority. Its ethnic Ukrainian majority votes much in line with the rest of Western Ukraine.
EDIT: And thank you, Enno, for the link to the history forum! Seems very helpful.
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