Chapter XIV: Renewal“Now is the time for us to speak loud and clear.” – Senator Bob Dole, September 1992.
“I expect that the Democrats will hold onto the House.” – Speaker Tom Foley, October 1992.
“President Race Tight as Candidates Finish Campaigning” –
Washington Post, November 1992.
With the conventions now weeks behind the candidates, the nation geared up for the final months of the 1992 campaign. Polls continued to show a dead heat between Dole and Bentsen as autumn began. The dead heat race resulted in a whole slew of states that were deemed to be “toss-ups,” ranging from Michigan to Missouri, even up to Maine. Both Dole and Bentsen tirelessly campaigned in as many of these toss-up states as possible in an effort to rally votes. The President continued to preach his message about progress under his administration, while Dole maintained the approach that the President had failed.
“Now is the time for us to speak loud and clear; to remove this President from office and get our country back on the right track,” Dole commented at a rally outside Toledo, Ohio.
Dole on the campaign trail
The media’s fascination with the race between Bentsen and Dole left Perot’s campaign completely in the dust. The Texas businessman, who had failed to get his name on the ballot in all fifty states just as he had promised, had seen his support decline in recent months. National polls showed Perot’s support just below 8%. Despite this low number, though, Perot seemed to have overwhelming support in rural Western states. A Gallup poll in Montana, for example, showed Perot with a strong 33% of support.
MONTANA POLL – SEPTEMBER 18 1992
Which candidate will you support in the 1992 presidential election?Dole: 38.5%Perot: 33.5%
Bentsen: 28.0%
COLORADO POLL – SEPTEMBER 18 1992
Which candidate will you support in the 1992 presidential election?Bentsen: 45.4%Dole: 40.6%
Perot: 14.0%
Perot was not the only candidate who seemed in trouble, though. Across the South and Midwest, numerous liberal House Democrats were bracing themselves for defeat. Polls indicated that Republicans were poised to take at least ten seats back in the House. As blue-collar workers in the Midwest turned away from the Democratic policies they had originally embraced, they additionally retracted their support for many House Democrats. At a rally outside Pittsburgh, Republican Vice Presidential nominee Carroll Campbell wasted no time in trying to win over blue collar support:
“This president’s policies have failed those of us who understand a hard day’s work. In states such as Pennsylvania, manufacturing plants cannot get back on their feet because of the excessive obstacles that this government places in your way.” But every Republican rally was matched with a Democratic rally. At a rally in St. Louis, President Bentsen advocated for a
“practical, not radical” approach.
The first presidential debate was held on October 11, 1992. Amidst news that the unemployment rate remained at 8.0%, the debate would focus on the economy. Despite his low poll numbers, Perot was permitted to participate. The bulk of questions were given to Bentsen and Dole, while Perot was ignored through most of the debate. Years later, Perot would assert that the network’s refusal to direct more questions his way would cost him support. Throughout the course of the debate, Bentsen defended his economic record and the reduction of the debate. The President asserted that the economic climate was the result of many disastrous policies in the 1980s, too. Dole, on the other hand, would criticize Bentsen’s record and proclaim that the economy was nowhere near recovery. Polls at the conclusion of the debate showed that viewers thought that the President had preformed slightly better than Dole.
President Bentsen in the first debate
NATIONWIDE POLL – OCTOBER 12 1992
Who won the presidential debate?Bentsen: 51.4%Dole: 44.6%
Perot: 4.0%
The vice presidential debate was next up and widely anticipated as both Biden and Campbell were seen as the fresher generation of their respective parties. Years earlier, Biden had easily triumphed over Dan Quayle. This time, however, Biden would not have such luck. Campbell was extremely well prepared and came off as more composed than Biden. To make matters worse, Biden made several gaffes during the debate, one of which was calling Bob Dole
“an old grumpy man.” According to viewers, Campbell had bested the Vice President.
VP nominee Carroll Campbell in the debate
NATIONWIDE POLL – OCTOBER 15 1992
Who won the vice presidential debate?Campbell: 58.0%Biden: 42.0%
Final polls at the conclusion of October showed the Democratic ticket with a minor lead over the Republican ticket.
NATIONWIDE POLL – OCTOBER 31 1992
Who will you support in the 1992 presidential election?President Bentsen/Vice President Biden (D): 47.0%Senator Dole/Governor Campbell (R): 45.5%
Businessman Perot/Vice Admiral Stockdale (I): 7.5%
Unsure: 2.0%
Election Night, 1992
And alas, November arrived. Across the nation, Americans headed to the ballot boxes on November 3rd to cast their votes. The final polls had showed the President ahead of Dole by 2 points. Voter turn-out proved to be lower than in 1988. Despite their skepticism of Bentsen's more conservative policies, liberal Democrats cast their votes for Bentsen. More moderate Democrats also backed the President, which, when combined with independent voters, helped deliver states such as Kentucky and Missouri. Dole, on the other hand, managed to capture Michigan and Ohio due to the unpopularity of Bentsen's economic policies towards blue-collar workers.
Election coverage all night showed a virtual tie across the board between Bentsen and Dole until the western states were reported. Ross Perot managed to split the vote in crucial states such as Nevada and Colorado, effectively giving the election to Bentsen. With less than 50% of the vote, Bentsen was President Bentsen had secured reelection over Senator Dole. In front of a crowd of supporters, the Kansas senator conceded the race, congratulated the President, and stated that he was looking forward to retirement. In his victory speech, the President thanked his supporters.
“Thank you! Our work continues now as we bring jobs back to this great country.” Republicans were outraged, claiming that Perot's presence on the ballot in western states had cost Dole the election. More optimistic Republicans, however, pointed out that if the election was to be viewed as a referendum on Bentsen's policies, then clearly Bentsen and the Democrats had more work ahead of them. Republican gains in the House and Senate would shape the Republicans new approach to the Bentsen administration.
President Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE): 281 EVs, 48.7%Senator Robert “Bob” Dole (R-KS) / Governor Carroll Campbell (R-SC): 257 EVs, 43.0%Businessman Ross Perot (I-TX)/ Vice Admiral James Stockdale (I-VA): 0 EVs, 7.3% 1992 Senate and House election results:
Senate:
-2,
+2:
52 48House:
-12,
+12:
251,
184Notable results:
Georgia:
Paul Coverdell (R) defeats incumbent
Wyche Fowler (D)South Carolina:
Thomas Hartnett (R) defeats incumbent
Ernest Hollings (D)Wisconsin:
Russ Feingold (D) loses against incumbent
Bob Kasten (R)
