CO-PPP: Udall +2

[publicunofficial]

Link


Mark Udall - 47%
Cory Gardner - 45%

[windjammer]

Close race

[RogueBeaver]

Same margin as last time. Tied among indies. Should go down to the wire.

[windjammer]

Same margin as last time. Tied among indies. Should go down to the wire.

For Udall or for Gardner?

[moderatevoter]

Windjammer, that's just an expression which means it'll be close until the end.

[windjammer]

Windjammer, that's just an expression which means it'll be close until the end.

Thanks, I didn't know

[moderatevoter]

No worries!

[IceSpear]

This is a much better of example of the GOP expanding the map, as opposed to their pipe dreams in NH and VA.

[Lief 🗽]

Udall will win in the end. This is how Colorado polling acts literally every cycle.

[5280]

Udall will win in the end. This is how Colorado polling acts literally every cycle.

Blah, blah, blah, like a broken record. You Democrats eat that up like trash.

[Skill and Chance]

Udall will win in the end. This is how Colorado polling acts literally every cycle.

Blah, blah, blah, like a broken record. You Democrats eat that up like trash.

The evidence is pretty robust now.  There are clearly a lot of Democrats not being reached by polls in CO/NV/NM/AZ.  It has recurred 3 cycles in a row now.

[henster]

Udall will win in the end. This is how Colorado polling acts literally every cycle.

Blah, blah, blah, like a broken record. You Democrats eat that up like trash.

Dems have consistently performed better than their polling..

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Gotta agree with Henster and Skill and Chance on this one, though it is by no means unwinnable for Gardner.

[DrScholl]

Udall will win in the end. This is how Colorado polling acts literally every cycle.

Blah, blah, blah, like a broken record. You Democrats eat that up like trash.

Calm down, child.

[Lief 🗽]

Udall will win in the end. This is how Colorado polling acts literally every cycle.

Blah, blah, blah, like a broken record. You Democrats eat that up like trash.

Why are all the Republicans from Colorado on this forum pointless?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Udall will win in the end. This is how Colorado polling acts literally every cycle.

Blah, blah, blah, like a broken record. You Democrats eat that up like trash.

Why are all the Republicans from Colorado on this forum pointless?

Seriously.  Between him and backtored... it must be something in the water.

[Skill and Chance]

I would use a variation on the old rule in CO and NV: The Republican has to be polling over 50% to win these states.  Heller did squeak through when polling at 48% due to a 3rd party candidate.  But even he fell from a predicted 4% win to a real 1% win.

[SPC]

Udall will win in the end. This is how Colorado polling acts literally every cycle.

Blah, blah, blah, like a broken record. You Democrats eat that up like trash.

Dems have consistently performed better than their polling..

PPP, CNN, and SUSA were all close to the final result, this points more specifically to Rasmussen and Marist being worthless.

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Once again, the polls weren't that far off if you ignore the garbage. PPP may have overestimated the amount of Maes voters who would defect to Tancredo.

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This may be the best evidence for a polling bias. Still, if one excludes all the disreputable pollsters, there does appear to be a consistent 2-4 point lead for Obama, minus a few outliers (although PPP's "outlier" was closest to the final result). If such is the case, then at best there's a 3-point difference between the polling consensus and the final margin. The lesson here is not to go by RCP for polling averages, as their methodology inherently weights quantity over quality.

More concerning for Gardner is that he has yet to have a lead in a reputable poll, but given how early in the cycle it is, I'd say that Udall's consistent two-point leads this far out are not an indicator of the final result.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, the environment can certainly change.  For example, 2012 went from neutral to lean D in September.  Democrats have just been very lucky/blessed with their timing recently:

2012: Neutral --> Lean D in September
2010: R wave predicted from winter onward
2008: Lean D --> D wave in September
2006: Looked like a D wave all along
2004: Neutral --> Lean R in September
2002: R wave by midterm standards, expected since Bush handled 9/11 well
2000: Lean R --> late Gore surge to neutral in October. 

What we can say is that there is a LOT of precedence for things changing in the fall.  However the week-before-the-election polls probably reflect the final state of the race in all but the most extreme cases.