Why did Obama so strongly over-perform his polling in Nevada 08 and Oregon '12?
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  Why did Obama so strongly over-perform his polling in Nevada 08 and Oregon '12?
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Author Topic: Why did Obama so strongly over-perform his polling in Nevada 08 and Oregon '12?  (Read 1591 times)
JRP1994
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« on: April 23, 2014, 07:35:43 PM »

Nevada 2008:

Final RCP average: Obama +6.5%
Final vote total: Obama +12.5%

He almost doubled his polling average.

Oregon 2012:

Final RCP average: Obama +6.0%
Final vote total: Obama +12.0%

He actually DID double his polling average.

My question --- why?
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JRP1994
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« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2014, 07:40:43 PM »

And yes, I know the answer is "undecideds broke heavily for Obama". But WHY? And why so uniformly?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2014, 07:53:20 PM »

They're different issues.

Oregon was a matter of low-ish Democratic enthusiasm and pretty terrible polls (structurally) being factored in, mix that in with the fact that undecideds swung to Obama - the rule about undecideds swinging to the challenger is one of politic's greatest fallacies.

Nevada was yes, partly about undecideds, but also look to Colorado... Obama had a TINY polling average lead, but won by more than 5%. A lot of it is due to Latino under-polling. Which is something none of the polling firms have really got a handle on.

Look at Harry Reid's 2010 race, he was down 4% going into election day, and he won by 5%.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2014, 10:03:24 PM »

Nevada polls in particular always seem to greatly underestimate Democrats, as seen in 2008 and 2010. This is why I thought Shelley Berkley was going to win in 2012. She didn't, but she still came way closer than the polling said she would.
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SWE
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« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2014, 05:36:04 AM »

undecideds broke heavily for Obama
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sg0508
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« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2014, 07:33:52 AM »

Hispanic vote that was likely underrepresented in NV.  OR is tough (as is WA) because everyone votes by mail there.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2014, 04:12:44 PM »

You shouldn't take RCP numbers as a baseline, RCP sucks ass.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2014, 04:34:11 PM »

Nevada polls in particular always seem to greatly underestimate Democrats, as seen in 2008 and 2010. This is why I thought Shelley Berkley was going to win in 2012. She didn't, but she still came way closer than the polling said she would.

Yep.  Heller is toast if a Republican is president in 2018.  The one bright spot left on that map for Democrats...
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2014, 10:15:25 PM »

Nevada polls in particular always seem to greatly underestimate Democrats, as seen in 2008 and 2010. This is why I thought Shelley Berkley was going to win in 2012. She didn't, but she still came way closer than the polling said she would.

Yep.  Heller is toast if a Republican is president in 2018.  The one bright spot left on that map for Democrats...

2002 midterms would disagree.  It all depends on how popular that GOP President is. 

IMO if a GOPer sneaks in and the economy starts to really pick up, they could become really popular, despite the fact that they weren't the cause of it.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2014, 07:35:26 AM »

Nevada polls in particular always seem to greatly underestimate Democrats, as seen in 2008 and 2010. This is why I thought Shelley Berkley was going to win in 2012. She didn't, but she still came way closer than the polling said she would.

Yep.  Heller is toast if a Republican is president in 2018.  The one bright spot left on that map for Democrats...

Heller will have the benefit of incumbency which he didn't really have in 2012 (as Nate Silver found about appointed Senators).
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2014, 08:54:45 PM »

You shouldn't take RCP numbers as a baseline, RCP sucks ass.

Seriously.  Didn't they include Rasmussen but exclude PPP?  Hilarious. 
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sg0508
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« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2014, 07:40:52 AM »

Oregon is tough to poll.  Everyone votes by mail.  Thus, it's tough to determine who votes and who doesn't.  It's even tougher in states with early voters (i.e. FL/CO, etc.) since many voters have voted by the time Election Day rolls around and others are going to the polls.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #12 on: June 06, 2014, 09:43:55 PM »

Like sg0508 said: Mexicans and mail.
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