Fascinating article/map on southern whites

[ElectionsGuy]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/24/upshot/southern-whites-loyalty-to-gop-nearing-that-of-blacks-to-democrats.html?hpw&rref=&_r=0

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/04/23/white-vote/b9f04a50521b182375e5a7b4a0a656c0cbf67ec0/whitevote-artboard_1-0.png

Written by Nate Cohn, he explains that the southern white trend of voting overwhelmingly republican has been a long term trend.

[Orser67]

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Not that I don't believe it, but I'd be interested to see some polling on that.

[Miles]

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Not that I don't believe it, but I'd be interested to see some polling on that.

I actually disagree. They're still conservative by national standards, but not quit on par with previous generations.

On a related note, our own poster Sol did a DKE diary taking a more detailed look at the white vote in NC.

[Sol]

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Not that I don't believe it, but I'd be interested to see some polling on that.

I actually disagree. They're still conservative by national standards, but not quit on par with previous generations.

On a related note, our own poster Sol did a DKE diary taking a more detailed look at the white vote in NC.

As much as I'd like to take credit for that wise diary, that's not actually me.

[Miles]

As much as I'd like to take credit for that wise diary, that's not actually me.

Wow, I'm sorry. I get some of the NC avatars mixed up sometimes.

Anyway, good diary, psyhicpanda

[nclib]

What are we defining as 'Southern whites'? Like many white Democrats in NC, I don't consider myself Southern.

[DC Al Fine]

Kind of curious why some counties' whites don't support Obama. I mean it's obvious why Southerners and Mormons didn't like Obama, but why didn't those counties in central Illinois?

[TDAS04]

That map of the white vote in North Carolina is very interesting.   I'm somewhat surprised by how relatively well Obama did among whites in the rural mountain counties.

[AggregateDemand]

Republicans are not winning whites. Republicans are failing to win blacks.

The party of Emancipation, Civil Rights, and Amnesty can't swing minority voters because Republican "principles" dictate that race politics shall not be part of the platform. It's somewhat hilarious, but it's also somewhat tragic because it allows Democrats to do whatever they want.

If minorities knew that handouts for the poor paled in comparison to the largesse heaped upon white senior citizens who know how to game the SS/MED/IRA/401K complex, I wonder if minorities would be so impressed by Democratic handouts. Though, Democrats could argue that Bush made the situation much worse with Medicare Part D.

[Sol]

That map of the white vote in North Carolina is very interesting.   I'm somewhat surprised by how relatively well Obama did among whites in the rural mountain counties.

White voting in Buncombe, Watauga, and Jackson counties (and too a lesser extent Polk and Transylvania) is a bit like Oregon- lots of White lefties and Conservatives, but very few minorities, except on the Cherokee reservation in Jackson County.

The other close areas around Asheville are largely tied to local Blue Dog traditions.

An interesting question: Did Obama win the white vote in Jackson County? I remember reading somewhere that he did, but I doubt it, considering the high Cherokee population. Of course, turnout might be crap...paging Lewis Trondheim?

[H. Ross Peron]

Surprised at how well Obama's vote is holding up in historically Republican Eastern Tennessee (even if he's generally losing massively). Also amazed at how conservative Kern County is.

[memphis]

That map of the white vote in North Carolina is very interesting.   I'm somewhat surprised by how relatively well Obama did among whites in the rural mountain counties.

No need for surprise. Mountain whites are not nearly as Republican as those in the Lower South.

[Padfoot]

What are we defining as 'Southern whites'? Like many white Democrats in NC, I don't consider myself Southern.

I think for the purposes of this article as well as any discussion on how a particular state or an area in the south votes, if you live there and vote there then you are "Southern."  Obviously being "culturally Southern" and living in the South don't necessarily go hand in hand.  The article even points out that there are pockets of the urban/academic South where Democrats get a "normal" amount of white support.  However, I think the main point is that the South is still very much divided by racial politics and those white Dem enclaves are more of an exception to the rule.

[Sbane]

Also amazed at how conservative Kern County is.

Why? Everything about that place screams conservative. Filled with okies and Mexicans (leading to racial politics), full of farmers who care about land rights, eminent domain and killing delta smelt so they can get their socialized water. Throw in a bunch of oil in the ground and you have a republican wet dream.

[TDAS04]

That map of the white vote in North Carolina is very interesting.   I'm somewhat surprised by how relatively well Obama did among whites in the rural mountain counties.

No need for surprise. Mountain whites are not nearly as Republican as those in the Lower South.

I'm not surprised that they voted less Republican, I'm just surprised that Obama obtained 40% in several counties.  I knew that Buncombe and Watauga were fairly liberal, I was just a little surprised about some of the other counties there.

I am aware that whites in the Lower South are the most overwhelmingly Republican today, though the opposite used to be true.  The Lower South was solidly Democratic, Republicans stronger in mountainous ares for reasons dating back to the Civil War.  Especially in East Tennessee, they sided with the Union and have been solidly Republican ever since, and are still mostly >70% Republican.  It just seems that the Democratic vote jumps once you cross the border into North Carolina.  I was just wondering about that.

[7,052,770]

Looks like my back-of-the-napkin Mississippi white vote map aligns with theirs pretty well



Although I'm not sure how they figure Hinds County whites aren't over 80% Republican.

[nclib]

I would imagine the non-colored Alabama black belt has more to do with it being hard to measure/prove due to the white % being low, than whites there actually being more Democratic, no?

Are they using a formula across the board, or are they taking into account circumstances in each county?

[Indy Texas]

I'd like to know how they actually calculated these county figures.

For example, it's accepted that whites become more conservative/Republican as their community becomes more non-white. And yet the map has Obama ostensibly doing better with whites in the Black Belt counties in Alabama.

[Adam Griffin]

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Not that I don't believe it, but I'd be interested to see some polling on that.

I actually disagree. They're still conservative by national standards, but not quit on par with previous generations.

On a related note, our own poster Sol did a DKE diary taking a more detailed look at the white vote in NC.

I also compiled Obama's estimated share of the white vote in 2008 and 2012 by county in Georgia. BK & I discussed the methodology in more detail (I've been meaning to revise but just haven't had the time) and some of the black belt counties may be artificially high on here, but everything outside of that is sound.

[Indy Texas]

I find it bizarre that McCain won 18-29 year olds in GA and not 30-44 year olds.

[GaussLaw]

I'd like to know how they actually calculated these county figures.

For example, it's accepted that whites become more conservative/Republican as their community becomes more non-white. And yet the map has Obama ostensibly doing better with whites in the Black Belt counties in Alabama.

They likely have the turnout % wrong and underestimated the % black people who voted in those areas, thus giving Obama a better showing in the Black Belt counties among whites.  Blacks turned out at a higher % than whites in 2012.

[H. Ross Peron]

Also amazed at how conservative Kern County is.

Why? Everything about that place screams conservative. Filled with okies and Mexicans (leading to racial politics), full of farmers who care about land rights, eminent domain and killing delta smelt so they can get their socialized water. Throw in a bunch of oil in the ground and you have a republican wet dream.

I knew it was conservative, but considering that the area around Bakersfield is relatively urbanized, I didn't believe that the Obama vote share among whites would go under 20%.

[Adam Griffin]

I'd like to know how they actually calculated these county figures.

For example, it's accepted that whites become more conservative/Republican as their community becomes more non-white. And yet the map has Obama ostensibly doing better with whites in the Black Belt counties in Alabama.

They likely have the turnout % wrong and underestimated the % black people who voted in those areas, thus giving Obama a better showing in the Black Belt counties among whites.  Blacks turned out at a higher % than whites in 2012.

Read this discussion. At least in Georgia's case, basically, it's a potential combination of over/underestimating black support of Obama, and also not properly determining who comprises the "Other" and "Unknown" categories on the voter rolls. The page says that exit polling (which didn't exist in GA in 2012) and Census data were used, but using only Census data wouldn't produce as accurate of a result in GA as my map, imho (which used SoS turnout figures by race). To give one example, there are close to a dozen counties in Georgia which have intensely inflated black populations because state prisons are located there. I tried to take into account various minutiae that affected the numbers, such as varying voting trends - if ever so slight - among various groups.



The first one is the NYT map, with the counties where Obama scored less than 21% of the white vote in red. The second map is my version with the same over/under 21 scenario as the NYT version. The third map is mine with the MoE I had initially determined (in this case, counties in green are where Obama received 19% of the white vote or more). As a whole, the NYT one seems to fit well between my rather cautious baseline assessment of white voters and the best-case scenario within the MoE.

Around the metro area in particular, it's hard to be as accurate either by Census data or by turnout figures when compared to most other counties/regions, since "Other" and "Unknown" (which is debated in that thread above as to who comprises those categories) comprise a larger chunk of the voting bloc and explicitly-identified Latinos and Asians are a larger voting bloc (with more nuanced voting patterns in GA than blacks or whites). I noticed that's where the biggest differences between my map and the NYT as a whole occurred; in many of the other parts of the state where our maps show different gradients (like the chunk of green int he north on the third map and the lack of a couple NE of Macon), they either just barely made or missed the cut-off.

Because of that, I think as a whole, their project is accurate. There are going to be huge outliers in some cases/counties on the NYT map, though, thanks to how they compiled the projection.

EDIT - FYI: My spreadsheets that were used to make my 2008/2012 maps ultimately spat out Obama receiving 19% of the white vote in Georgia in 2012, and 23% in 2008 (which matched what 2008 exit polling said).

[Orser67]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/25/upshot/rebutting-claim-that-obama-had-wider-support-among-southern-whites.html?rref=upshot

For the record, in a small follow-up, the author says the article was really about the Deep South.

[nclib]

What are we defining as 'Southern whites'? Like many white Democrats in NC, I don't consider myself Southern.

I think for the purposes of this article as well as any discussion on how a particular state or an area in the south votes, if you live there and vote there then you are "Southern."  Obviously being "culturally Southern" and living in the South don't necessarily go hand in hand.  The article even points out that there are pockets of the urban/academic South where Democrats get a "normal" amount of white support.  However, I think the main point is that the South is still very much divided by racial politics and those white Dem enclaves are more of an exception to the rule.

For the record, in a small follow-up, the author says the article was really about the Deep South.

That makes more sense because even at the state level, NC (and VA and FL) have reasonable white Democratic numbers.