Which senate election will have the most close result?

[Senator Cris]

Which senate election will have the most close result?

[RogueBeaver]

My guess: CO or AK, with the victor winning a plurality.

[Zioneer]

Probably Kentucky. Whoever wins will win in a squeaker.

[moderatevoter]

Colorado, Alaska, or North Carolina.

[free my dawg]

How likely is it that both Kay Hagan and Mark Udall do not return to the Senate in January 2015?

40%, I'd say

[Potatoe]

Probably Kentucky. Whoever wins will win in a squeaker.

[windjammer]

10% unlikely

[LeBron]

For a D seat, CO since the primary was cleared this time for Gardner and Udall is a weak incumbent who this time around is facing off against a Republican who can actually get all of those L's and moderates to turn out. For R's, GA b/c I see most undecided breaking for McConnell considering it's KY and his financial advantage, so Grimes is favored to beat the McConnell-Lunsford margin, but won't win whereas a brutal primary that will likely go to a runoff (and still more optimistic for a Broun or Gingrey win than a Bevin win), could decide who this race tilts towards and who narrowly wins.

AK - Begich should hold it comfortably now because of the ballot issues and the potential Miller Indie run. LA will only be close if it goes to a runoff just b/c of how toxic Cassidy is and the R vote split in the primary, and AR, personally, I still think Pryor is doomed (maybe PPP will prove otherwise), but I still see Cotton winning the seat by 7-8 points. The others (IA, MI, NH, SD, and WV) will all be won by relatively large margins by one party or another.

I could also argue to that Montana will be very close to as it has in the past. Daines lead is already starting to shrink (Only +7 from a Harper (R) poll) and at about this point in 2012, people thought Tester was doomed only to squeak by with a win in part from the strong backing behind Tester, the Libertarian, and a flawed R candidate which practically reflects the Walsh/Daines race. Plus he's getting all this popular publicity now in part thanks to Reid and Senate Dems over his mental health bill.

[Potatoe]

For a D seat, CO since the primary was cleared this time for Gardner and Udall is a weak incumbent who this time around is facing off against a Republican who can actually get all of those L's and moderates to turn out. For R's, GA b/c I see most undecided breaking for McConnell considering it's KY and his financial advantage, so Grimes is favored to beat the McConnell-Lunsford margin, but won't win whereas a brutal primary that will likely go to a runoff (and still more optimistic for a Broun or Gingrey win than a Bevin win), could decide who this race tilts towards and who narrowly wins.

First off, Udall is not weak at all, these polls are like Michigan polls but on a smaller scale. And secondly, you are severly underestimating Grimes here, McConnell is going to be #1 on the target list for the Democrats, and the GOP in Georgia is slowly getting saner and dumping idiots like Gingrey and Broun.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK will be the race to watch. It will be the closest. Should Begich win, I believe we hold our majority status.

[LeBron]

For a D seat, CO since the primary was cleared this time for Gardner and Udall is a weak incumbent who this time around is facing off against a Republican who can actually get all of those L's and moderates to turn out. For R's, GA b/c I see most undecided breaking for McConnell considering it's KY and his financial advantage, so Grimes is favored to beat the McConnell-Lunsford margin, but won't win whereas a brutal primary that will likely go to a runoff (and still more optimistic for a Broun or Gingrey win than a Bevin win), could decide who this race tilts towards and who narrowly wins.

First off, Udall is not weak at all, these polls are like Michigan polls but on a smaller scale. And secondly, you are severly underestimating Grimes here, McConnell is going to be #1 on the target list for the Democrats, and the GOP in Georgia is slowly getting saner and dumping idiots like Gingrey and Broun.

Actually, yes he is. He's campaigning on risky issues for CO like abortion and gun control and Quinnipiac has him at only 40% of Coloradoans who thought he deserved to be re-elected. And no way can Gardner be compared to Land. Land is running a terrible campaign ("I'm a woman so I know more about what women want than my male opponent"; #prolife) and MI is a much more favorable state to Democrats.

McConnell's approval is already back up to 40%, so he isn't as endangered as he was, say a month ago and like I said, his primary opponent isn't much of a threat anymore and has a strong war chest to fight off Grimes. And if the GA GOP is getting saner, then would they just have passed a bill that allows guns in churches, nightclubs, schools and airports? They still have energy in them and the only candidate in the field who isn't a gaffe machine and could handily beat Nunn is Perdue who's leading the field, but it can still go either way at this point.

[Potatoe]

For a D seat, CO since the primary was cleared this time for Gardner and Udall is a weak incumbent who this time around is facing off against a Republican who can actually get all of those L's and moderates to turn out. For R's, GA b/c I see most undecided breaking for McConnell considering it's KY and his financial advantage, so Grimes is favored to beat the McConnell-Lunsford margin, but won't win whereas a brutal primary that will likely go to a runoff (and still more optimistic for a Broun or Gingrey win than a Bevin win), could decide who this race tilts towards and who narrowly wins.

First off, Udall is not weak at all, these polls are like Michigan polls but on a smaller scale. And secondly, you are severly underestimating Grimes here, McConnell is going to be #1 on the target list for the Democrats, and the GOP in Georgia is slowly getting saner and dumping idiots like Gingrey and Broun.

McConnell's approval is already back up to 40%, so he isn't as endangered as he was, say a month ago and like I said, his primary opponent isn't much of a threat anymore and has a strong war chest to fight off Grimes. And if the GA GOP is getting saner, then would they just have passed a bill that allows guns in churches, nightclubs, schools and airports? They still have energy in them and the only candidate in the field who isn't a gaffe machine and could handily beat Nunn is Perdue who's leading the field, but it can still go either way at this point.

Having 40% approvals is not being better off for re election, 40% approvals are horrendous to have. and the Primary challenge is going to hit Mitch hard, considering that if even 20-30% of Bevin's voters stay home, Mitch is damaged, he needs to get the Bevin crowd to vote for him.

[LeBron]

For a D seat, CO since the primary was cleared this time for Gardner and Udall is a weak incumbent who this time around is facing off against a Republican who can actually get all of those L's and moderates to turn out. For R's, GA b/c I see most undecided breaking for McConnell considering it's KY and his financial advantage, so Grimes is favored to beat the McConnell-Lunsford margin, but won't win whereas a brutal primary that will likely go to a runoff (and still more optimistic for a Broun or Gingrey win than a Bevin win), could decide who this race tilts towards and who narrowly wins.

First off, Udall is not weak at all, these polls are like Michigan polls but on a smaller scale. And secondly, you are severly underestimating Grimes here, McConnell is going to be #1 on the target list for the Democrats, and the GOP in Georgia is slowly getting saner and dumping idiots like Gingrey and Broun.

McConnell's approval is already back up to 40%, so he isn't as endangered as he was, say a month ago and like I said, his primary opponent isn't much of a threat anymore and has a strong war chest to fight off Grimes. And if the GA GOP is getting saner, then would they just have passed a bill that allows guns in churches, nightclubs, schools and airports? They still have energy in them and the only candidate in the field who isn't a gaffe machine and could handily beat Nunn is Perdue who's leading the field, but it can still go either way at this point.

Having 40% approvals is not being better off for re election, 40% approvals are horrendous to have. and the Primary challenge is going to hit Mitch hard, considering that if even 20-30% of Bevin's voters stay home, Mitch is damaged, he needs to get the Bevin crowd to vote for him.

It's still better than McConnell's approvals in the high 20s last month! Grimes problem is it's KY which is not only red, but it's continuing to get more red. McConnell was weak in 2008 to but still survived even with all the money Lunsford drained out of McConnell and the support he got from the Clinton's. McConnell has survived other very close races before that to and considering how Tea Party turnout shouldn't be affected much anyways considering the right-wing House candidates, Grimes will struggle to get crossover from enough moderate Republicans to win.

[Supersonic]

Going left of field and saying Michigan.

[SPC]

It really depends on what the national mood is. If the Democrats perform similar to 2006 (2008 and 2012 aren't really apt comparisons since those were presidential years), then I would expect the closest contests to be in Kentucky, Montana, or Arkansas, with Georgia having a runoff. If the Republicans perform similarly to 2002, I would expect the closest contests to be in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, or New Hampshire, with a runoff in Louisiana. In a neutral environment, Alaska and North Carolina seem like they would be the closest contests. Based on that, I would put North Carolina as the contest most likely to have the closest result, though that's still no more than a ~25% chance.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to say North Carolina, but Michigan, Colorado, Alaska, Kentucky, and Louisiana will all be very close as well.

[⛄]

Georgia. Michelle Nunn will narrowly win the run-off.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kentucky (Unless Bevin does the unthinkable) followed by Georgia (With the Republican just avoiding a runoff), Iowa and the off-the-board pick of Texas (if Rogers wins the Democratic Runoff) rounding off the first four.

[Potatoe]

off-the-board pick of Texas (if Rogers wins the Democratic Runoff)

WHAT? She literally compares Obama to Hitler and follows Lyndon Larouche.

[NewYorkExpress]

off-the-board pick of Texas (if Rogers wins the Democratic Runoff)

WHAT? She literally compares Obama to Hitler and follows Lyndon Larouche.

That's the thing, since she's more Conservative than Cornyn, Cornyn will become the de facto Democratic nominee and lose votes accordingly.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

off-the-board pick of Texas (if Rogers wins the Democratic Runoff)

WHAT? She literally compares Obama to Hitler and follows Lyndon Larouche.

That's the thing, since she's more Conservative than Cornyn, Cornyn will become the de facto Democratic nominee and lose votes accordingly.

More bonkers =/= more conservative

[Oak Hills]

Where did this thing about Kesha Rogers making it closer come from? Is it some sort of joke? If so, it's not funny. And if it's not a joke, you guys who are saying it are clueless about politics. I suspect it's plain and simple trolling, though.

[7,052,770]

Yeah, there's clearly some kind of inside joke about Kesha Rogers going around. Multiple people have been making that "argument."

[Never]

On a good night for the Democrats, like 2006/2008, Kentucky or Georgia will have the closest result.
On a neutral night, or one where one party is just slightly favored, North Carolina or Louisiana will be closest, if the latter ends up in a runoff.
On a good night for the Republicans, either Colorado if the environment is like 2010, or Michigan, if the environment is like 1946. Right now, I would say that a Republican victory in Michigan is highly unlikely (around a 5% chance), but it could happen.

If I had to choose one Senate election, I would go with North Carolina.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I say AK because it was the closest in 2008 and it will very close in 2014. If AK goes, so does the senate. The last couple polls out of ARK were encouraging as well. We hold Pryor and Begich and ALG wins we will hold the senate. Not worried about MI. Peters should carry the day, despite having Schauer, who is more lackluster in his race, I am predicting he wins as well.