Reagan would likely do better in the South than your original map, because I think it is important to remember that the region was already trending towards the Republicans before Carter came on the scene. I think Reagan would pickup Michigan, because if I am not mistaken, that is considered the tipping point state for Reagan's victories, so he would probably win it even without the Iranian hostage crisis. Nevertheless, for the most part, I think your map was about right in the North. I don't think that Carter would have a path to victory, because the economy tends to be a major issue in presidential elections, and there might have been even more focus on that issue without a major foreign event, to the detriment of Carter.
