Which two GOP candidates would create the longest primary?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:31:46 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Which two GOP candidates would create the longest primary?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Which two GOP candidates would create the longest primary?  (Read 2033 times)
retromike22
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,433
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 27, 2014, 12:49:56 AM »

Basically, which two candidates would divide the GOP as long and as evenly as possible, such as with Clinton and Obama in 2008.

My guesses:
Bush and Paul.
Maybe Paul and Christie as well.
Logged
Mordecai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,465
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2014, 12:55:41 AM »

Either one of those would be amazing to watch.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2014, 01:59:41 AM »

Bolton and Carson
Logged
Meursault
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 771
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2014, 02:15:23 AM »

A Huckabee/Paul primary could very well go all the way to the convention.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2014, 08:30:24 AM »

Cruz and anyone else.

If you can fillibuster an issue that ended in a result you supported for twenty one hours (the Government shutdown), you're going to go to the convention (and maybe even fight the convention's nominee in court).
Logged
MurrayBannerman
murraybannerman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 756


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: -2.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2014, 09:11:28 AM »

Cruz and anyone else.

If you can fillibuster an issue that ended in a result you supported for twenty one hours (the Government shutdown), you're going to go to the convention (and maybe even fight the convention's nominee in court).
So basically Senators are just irrational people? Tongue
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2014, 09:37:22 AM »
« Edited: April 27, 2014, 09:46:08 AM by bronz4141 »

Great question. I was thinking of creating a thread like this, but my guess is:
Cruz and Santorum

Other candidates that can create a long primary:
1) Paul
2) Huckabee
3) Bolton
4) Carson or West
5) Gingrich (He has an ego enough to do it, but I don't know if he'll run)
Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,139
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2014, 11:00:48 AM »

Cruz and anyone else.

If you can fillibuster an issue that ended in a result you supported for twenty one hours (the Government shutdown), you're going to go to the convention (and maybe even fight the convention's nominee in court).
So basically Senators are just irrational people? Tongue

Ted Cruz is.
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,434
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2014, 03:10:35 PM »

I asked a similar question a few weeks back.

Copying and pasting from there, it seemed Rand Paul gets into a lot of fault lines...

Jeb VS Paul:
Security state VS Civil Liberties
Compassionate Conservative VS Small Government
Establishment VS Outsider
Elder Statesman VS Newcomer (Paul's political career began after Bush's tenure as Governor ended.

Christie VS. Paul:
Accomplishment VS Vision
Bipartisanship VS Ideological Purity
Bush Appointee VS Ron Paul's son
Ruthlessness VS Morals

Walker VS Paul:
Accomplishment VS Vision
Political Expertise VS Outsider (Scott Walker has been in elected office since he was 26.)
A career exclusively in Wisconsin VS A career in DC
Firm opposition to Democrats VS Outreach
Logged
Never
Never Convinced
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,623
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2014, 10:26:51 PM »

If two GOP candidates are making a very long primary, it would either mean that they are mediocre and not capable of winning a high amount of support, or that they are both very strong candidates who appeal to different wings of the party.

The weakest candidates who could plausibly make it out of IA/NH in 2016 seem to be Paul Ryan and Mike Huckabee, who would both probably have difficulty resonating with voters outside of their very narrow range of support. While Ryan is fiscally conservative, he doesn't seem to relate with the Tea Party or values voters, while Huckabee could carry socially conservative values voters and trouble with economically conservative Republicans in the Northeast and Midwest. Ryan would probably win most of the Northern states outside of IA, but he might have trouble in the Rust Belt if Huckabee is running a very populist campaign. Huckabee would surely win most of the South. The Western states would probably be fair game, with Huckabee and Ryan splitting the states in that region. Huckabee would probably prevail, since the GOP is a somewhat Southern-centered party, which might help him as the primaries go on.

It seems like the strongest candidates are Chris Christie and Rand Paul. It would appear that Christie is a traditional Republican, while Paul seems to have a new direction for the Republican party. While I understand that Christie and Paul are very different from Nelson Rockefeller and Barry Goldwater, there are some similarities between these pairs of candidates that are hard to miss. Rockefeller and Christie seem/ed to be favorites of the party regulars, while Goldwater and Paul appear/ed to be motivated in rallying supporters to their causes.

A long primary could be good or bad for the Republicans, but I think that it would be hard to confidently tell which two candidates would be most likely to have an extended showdown in the primaries until late 2015.
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,434
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 27, 2014, 11:32:36 PM »

The scenario with the longest primary could be a three way race, where it's even tougher for one Republican to get fifty percent.

The final three that could get those results would be Chris Christie VS Rand Paul VS Mike Huckabee.

You'd have the establishment with Christie (assuming he's the last man standing in that primary), social conservatives and evangelicals with Huckabee, and fiscal conservatives and libertarians with Rand Paul.

Christie's a relatively new face, while Rand Paul could emphasize that he didn't work in the Bush administration, and Huckabee would avoid having a record to criticize since 2006.
Huckabee would play up the minister angle running against a libertarian and the bridgegate guy.
Logged
Chunk Yogurt for President!
CELTICEMPIRE
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,235
Georgia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2014, 04:43:47 PM »

A Huckabee/Paul primary could very well go all the way to the convention.

Not really, Huckabee supporters are generally in the anti-establishment wing of the party, making them more favorable to Paul.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,254
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2014, 04:57:57 PM »

In any of these "X vs. Paul" scenarios I have a hard time seeing how Paul can go the distance. His optimal strategy was to take the "true conservative" mantle vs. whoever the relatively moderate establishment candidate turned out to be, but given his recent statements about abortion, Reagan, etc., it's hard to envision how that happens.

How does he significantly expand his base beyond his dad's supporters plus a few more like-minded GOP primary voters who were scared away by Ron's craziness "occasionally eccentric style"? Those numbers are MAYBE a way to win Iowa in a heavily split field, and maybe a good showing (but winning?) in New Hampshire with that momentum. And then what? I fail to see what electoral niche he can realistically fill outside internet love if he's not running balls to the wall as "the true conservative" (a title several others will surely seek to grab......).
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2014, 05:03:35 PM »

Paul does best in a crowded field, as soon as its down to two, it's over for him unless the field has been crowded for a long time. I think it's that simple.
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,434
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2014, 05:03:41 PM »

A Huckabee/Paul primary could very well go all the way to the convention.

Not really, Huckabee supporters are generally in the anti-establishment wing of the party, making them more favorable to Paul.
It would be an interesting match-up. Huckabee and Paul are both southern insurgents, but they appeal to different parts of the grassroots. Huckabee is socially conservative and fiscally moderate. He believes in an active government, albeit one more interested in conservative policies. Rand Paul has some radical views on social issues, but is much more fiscally conservative.

There could be a scenario in which these two are the top candidates, and none of the establishment candidates manages to break out. Let's say Huckabee wins Iowa big, with Rand Paul in second place. Rand Paul blows out New Hampshire, with Huckabee in second place. Walker gets third place in Iowa, and Christie gets third place in New Hampshire, so neither has significant momentum heading in to the later states.

What could make this a longer primary is that neither Paul or Huckabee is the top choice of the establishment. So business types might wait on the sidelines until one of the two emerges as the least bad option.
Logged
retromike22
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,433
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2015, 08:00:55 PM »

I'm thinking Bush and Rubio or Bush and Walker now.
Logged
H. Ross Peron
General Mung Beans
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,406
Korea, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -1.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2015, 09:36:52 PM »

Jeb and Scott
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,697
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2015, 10:08:41 PM »

Paul vs Cruz
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2015, 11:32:39 PM »

In my wildest dreams, there are going to be three viable candidates with substantial delegate counts going into the convention.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2015, 11:36:54 PM »

In my wildest dreams, there are going to be three viable candidates with substantial delegate counts going into the convention.

Dreams that wild may be a sign of psychological imbalance.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.039 seconds with 13 queries.