Senate control after 2014, 2016, and 2018 Senate elections

[Brittain33]

R/D/R, being a pessimist who assumes Hillary Clinton will win.

[Person Man]

2014:  GOP takes control 52-48.

2016:  In a national GOP wave, the GOP only loses Wisconsin and Illinois while picking-up Nevada, resulting in a net loss of one seat.  GOP retains control 51-49.

2018:  The Republican president's popularity is in the tanks, and the Democrats are able to defend all of their seats up in 2018 while making inroads in Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and Nebraska.  Democrats take control 53 - 47.

I did this to show that a R/R/D, is not "absurd" at all and may even be one of the more likely outcomes in my opinion. 

This is pretty plausible. In fact, I expect something like this to happen unless Hillary runs and wins.

[The Other Castro]

DDR or RDR with Democrat winning in 2016
DDD, DRD, or RRD with Republican winning in 2016

scenarios are in order of likeliness for each

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

DDR or RDR with Democrat winning in 2016
DDD, DRD, or RRD with Republican winning in 2016

scenarios are in order of likeliness for each

Agree except for those. There's no way Republicans have pretty much maxed out the 2016 map and Democrats have maxed out the 2018 map

[Antonio the Sixth]

D/D/About even chances

[andrew_c]

R/D/D
2014: GOP will gain enough seats for control
2016: Democrats will pickup GOP seats in blue states and swing states, and gain control
2018: GOP will gain seats from Democrats, but Democrats would retain control

[RR1997]

R/D/R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D/D/R

[NewYorkExpress]

R/D/D

[Mr. Smith]

I suspect the GOP will take up 4 or 5 seats,but ultimately North Carolina and Kansas will be what keeps 2014 in the Democratic court.

2016 will be a huge gain for the Dems, they'll easily dump out Ron Johnson (WI),(especially if Feingold decides to return) Pat Toomey (especially if Joe Sestak makes a rematch), and Mark Kirk (IL).

And they have a good chance in NH, and OH. And if Ashley Judd runs a good campaign,she might contest Paul.

2018 however will probably shift to GOP by the default of being a midterm.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I suspect the GOP will take up 4 or 5 seats,but ultimately North Carolina and Kansas will be what keeps 2014 in the Democratic court.

2016 will be a huge gain for the Dems, they'll easily dump out Ron Johnson (WI),(especially if Feingold decides to return) Pat Toomey (especially if Joe Sestak makes a rematch), and Mark Kirk (IL).

And they have a good chance in NH, and OH. And if Ashley Judd runs a good campaign,she might contest Paul.

2018 however will probably shift to GOP by the default of being a midterm.


Dont be too sure about 2018 as well, McCaakill is a fighter even if Donnelly and heidikempt go down.

2016, Madigan will run if Hilary asks. Ayotte will go down, we sure need NH and CO and NV for the 272 trifecta.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I suspect the GOP will take up 4 or 5 seats,but ultimately North Carolina and Kansas will be what keeps 2014 in the Democratic court.

2016 will be a huge gain for the Dems, they'll easily dump out Ron Johnson (WI),(especially if Feingold decides to return) Pat Toomey (especially if Joe Sestak makes a rematch), and Mark Kirk (IL).

And they have a good chance in NH, and OH. And if Ashley Judd runs a good campaign,she might contest Paul.

2018 however will probably shift to GOP by the default of being a midterm.

Hope you meant ALG...

[MATTROSE94]

2014: 50-50 split with Joe Biden as the tie-breaking vote (Republicans pick up Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota and Iowa, while Greg Orman ekes out a win in Kansas and decides to caucus with the Democrats)
2016: 53-47 Democratic Majority (Republicans pick up Nevada and Colorado, while the Democrats pick up Illinois, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania)
2018: 55-45 Republican Majority (Democrats pick up Nevada, while the Republicans pick up Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin)

[MATTROSE94]

2014: 50-50 split with Joe Biden as the tie-breaking vote (Republicans pick up Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota and Iowa, while Greg Orman ekes out a win in Kansas and decides to caucus with the Democrats)
2016: 53-47 Democratic Majority (Republicans pick up Nevada and Colorado, while the Democrats pick up Illinois, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania)
2018: 55-45 Republican Majority (Democrats pick up Nevada, while the Republicans pick up Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin)

Why New Jersey? You think somebody like Kean (or Christie) can beat Menendez?

I am a bit on the fence with New Jersey, but I think that Bob Menendez could be vulnerable in a midterm election that might favor Republicans due his rumored corruption charges. It's possible that Tom Kean Jr. or Chris Christe (assuming that he fully recovers from the Bridgegate fiasco) could be formidable candidates against Menendez, though it still is a bit too early to tell.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

51-49 senate control Dem
55-45 NH, Pa, IL and Wi fall
Same place as in 14, as in 18, with McCaakill the decider

[jamestroll]

Well, this forum is not so good when it comes to predicting elections, it seems.

For all we know, McCaskill could landslide in 2018 and Bill Nelson gets defeated..

Trump may appoint multiple gop senators to positions, and Democrats are able to pick them all up in special elections and hold their own.

Trump may not even up unpopular and gop may be able to get close to 60 seats in senate in 2018. We don't  know now.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Well, this forum is not so good when it comes to predicting elections, it seems.

For all we know, McCaskill could landslide in 2018 and Bill Nelson gets defeated..

Trump may appoint multiple gop senators to positions, and Democrats are able to pick them all up in special elections and hold their own.

Trump may not even up unpopular and gop may be able to get close to 60 seats in senate in 2018. We don't  know now.

Well, Democrats really need a lucky break and this would be one of them.  Others would be Collins running for and winning ME-GOV and having a 2019 senate special or a rabid anti-immigration Trumpist candidate beating Cruz in the 2018 TX-SEN primary.

If I lived in Maine, maybe I'd want Collins to run for governor and return some sanity to that state's governor's mansion after eight years of Paul LePage.

[SWE]

D/D/D or D/D/R, depending on the party of the president elected in 2016

wtf past swe you ing idiot this was dumb even at the time

[DavidB.]

2014:  GOP takes control 52-48.

2016:  In a national GOP wave, the GOP only loses Wisconsin and Illinois while picking-up Nevada, resulting in a net loss of one seat.  GOP retains control 51-49.

2018:  The Republican president's popularity is in the tanks, and the Democrats are able to defend all of their seats up in 2018 while making inroads in Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and Nebraska.  Democrats take control 53 - 47.

I did this to show that a R/R/D, is not "absurd" at all and may even be one of the more likely outcomes in my opinion.  

This may actually not be that far off at all. At least 2014 and 2016 were pretty accurate. Impressive.

[Maxwell]

Well, this forum is not so good when it comes to predicting elections, it seems.

yes we are quite bad

[Vega]

R/R/R.

ing depressing.

[Mr. Smith]

I suspect the GOP will take up 4 or 5 seats,but ultimately North Carolina and Kansas will be what keeps 2014 in the Democratic court.

2016 will be a huge gain for the Dems, they'll easily dump out Ron Johnson (WI),(especially if Feingold decides to return) Pat Toomey (especially if Joe Sestak makes a rematch), and Mark Kirk (IL).

And they have a good chance in NH, and OH. And if Ashley Judd runs a good campaign,she might contest Paul.

2018 however will probably shift to GOP by the default of being a midterm.

I was wrong about my personal love life at the time [hint: It was pretty much dwindling and NOT some bad patch!], of course I got this all so wrong...

[Figueira]

Well, the first two Rs happened. The most likely answer is R/R/R, but there's an outside chance of R/R/D which wasn't listed on here.

As long as the Republicans don't make massive gains in 2018 (which they probably won't), Democrats have a good shot in 2020.