Biggest county swing in history

[Nichlemn]

What is the biggest swing for any county in consecutive Presidential elections that you can find? Try not to use results that involve a high third party vote.

[Skill and Chance]

1928-32 would be the likeliest place to look.  Probably a rural plains county that went near unanimously for Hoover, but then the dust bowl hit?

[Skill and Chance]

There are several 70% Hoover to 60% Roosevelt counties in Kansas and the Dakotas.  Interested to see what others find.

[Nichlemn]

I've got a feeling there might be something around the mid 19th century with a very strong home state/county effect. For instance, in 1832, TN went 95% Democratic with Jackson, then Van Buren lost it with only 42% of the vote to 58% for the Whig. Though perhaps it's marginal when the Whigs didn't technically exist in 1832.

[Nichlemn]

MS from 1960-1964 is a tricky case depending on how you see the unpledged electors.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, if we are counting the appearance/disappearance of a party and early 19th century elections, the demise of the Era of Good Feelings from 1820-1824 undoubtedly wins.  I wonder if anything in the modern party system can beat those 70%R->60%D county swings in 1928-32?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There were some >90% JFK in 1960 to >80% Goldwater in 1964 counties in Georgia.

[buritobr]

Counties in Georgia 1972-1976?

[Nichlemn]

Counties in Georgia 1972-1976?

Seems plausible, there was a swing of 42 points (!) from McGovern to Carter, and all counties R to all counties D. I wonder if that's ever occurred before (for a state with a reasonable number of counties)?

[ElectionsGuy]

Counties in Georgia 1972-1976?

Seems plausible, there was a swing of 42 points (!) from McGovern to Carter, and all counties R to all counties D. I wonder if that's ever occurred before (for a state with a reasonable number of counties)?

When it comes to recent history, The deep south from '72 to '76 (especially GA) is a good place to look. The one that I found in particular is Bacon County, GA going 90% Nixon to 80% Carter. That's a 70 point swing!

Mississippi is tricky from 1960-1964. But even if you don't count the "state's rights" unpledged vote, you could find a county that's >90% Goldwater from 60%-ish Kennedy. Still not as big as some counties in Georgia '72-'76 though. As other have said, its also important to look at Hoover-Roosevelt. Nebraska went from 63% Hoover to 63% Roosevelt, so I'm sure you could find some counties, if you can access the data...

Otherwise, we can look to elections pre-1870's. When things weren't so democratic.... You could easily find some massive swings in the beginning century when we had the Whigs, democratic-republicans, home state bias (which mattered a lot!), etc.

[buritobr]

Well, concerning 1972-1976, I found it

Berrien County, Georgia

1972
Nixon 2285 (86%)
McGovern 371 (14%)

1976
Ford 555 (14%)
Carter 3394 (86%)


Data from 2010
19,286 inhabitants
85.5% white, 11.4% black
Median household income US$30,044


1960: 88% Kennedy, 12% Nixon
1964: 60% Goldwater, 40% Johnson
1968: 73% Wallace, 15% Nixon, 12% Humprey
1972: 86% Nixon, 14% McGovern
1976: 86% Carter, 14% Ford
1980: 65% Carter, 34% Reagan
1984: 59% Reagan, 41% Mondale
1988: 59% Bush, 40% Dukakis
1992: 46% Clinton, 36% Bush, 18% Perot
1996: 45% Clinton, 43% Dole, 12% Perot
2000: 62% Bush, 37% Gore
2004: 70% Bush, 29% Kerry
2008: 76% McCain, 23% Obama
2012: 78% Romney, 21% Obama