Beninese presidential election – March 6/20 2016

[Sir John Johns]

Beninese electors voted today to elect a new president as incumbent Thomas Boni Yayi (elected in 2006 and re-elected in 2011) is term-limited. If no candidate receives at least 50 per cent of the vote in first round, a run-off between the two candidates with the most votes will be held on March 20. The election was originally scheduled for February 28/March 13 but had to be postponed due to organizational problems.

A record number (33) of candidates are running for president; they were 14 in 2011 and 26 in 2006. This high number illustrates the level of fragmentation of the Beninese political landscape: there are over 200 registered parties, almost all of them being non-ideological and regionally-based. The absence of ideology has led Beninese political parties to constantly switch sides and to resort to vote-buying. As a consequence, political parties have become weak over the years: both Mathieu Kérékou (president between 1996 and 2006) and Boni Yayi won their first term in office running as independent candidates. This year, it's quite telling that the majority of the presidential candidates have never held an elective office: the front-runners of this election are rich businessmen, technocrat economists or retired generals.

The 2015 legislative election was won by a broad anti-Boni Yayi coalition comprising the four major opposition forces: the Democratic Renewal Party (PRD), the Benin Rebirth (RB), the Union Makes the Nation (UN), and the National Alliance for Democracy (AND). As I have mentioned earlier, political parties in Benin easily switch sides: in a twist of events, the PRD and the RB have renounced to field their own presidential candidates choosing instead to back Boni Yayi's heir-apparent, Prime Minister Lionel Zinsou. Meanwhile, both the UN and the AND have basically imploded after these two political alliances have failed to select a single candidate to endorse.

The five major candidates are:

Lionel Zinsou, 61, is the candidate of Boni Yayi's Cowry Forces for an Emerging Benin (FCBE); he is also endorsed by the PRD, the RB, part of the AND, and part of the UN. The son of a Beninese physician and a French white mother, he is also the nephew of former president (1968-1969) Émile Derlin Zinsou. A native of Paris and a French-Beninese dual citizen, he spent the major part of his life in France where he successively worked as a speechwriter for French Prime Minister Laurent Fabius, as a director for Danone, and as a banker for Rothschild and PAI investment funds. Zinsou entered in Beninese politics in last June when he was appointed prime minister by Boni Yayi to everyone's surprise. Despite his lack of political experience and a rather weak record as prime minister, he was nominated over veteran politicians as the FCBE's presidential candidate.

Thanks to the support of the powerful FCBE machine (the closest thing to a national party, but still stronger in the northern part of the country from where Boni Yayi comes from) and of the PRD (strong in the Southeast around Porto Novo) and the RB (strong in the southern department of Zou and in Cotonou), Zinsou is one of the few candidates with a national base, at least on paper. He is seen as a strong contender who could possibly win the election “with a K.O.” (being elected in first round). Due to his dual citizenship, his French white mother, and his close links with Fabius (who was until recently the French foreign minister), Zinsou has been the target of xenophobic and racist attacks and he is perceived as the “candidate of France”. Because of his southern roots, Zinsou could possibly underperformed in the northern part of the country, where parochialism remains strong, especially as not everybody in the FCBE is supportive of his candidacy.

Sébastien Ajavon aka “ASG” (from his full name Ajavon Sébastien-Germain), 51, is a rich businessman with no previous electoral experience. A self-made man without higher education, he made a fortune in the poultry industry and he uses his vast wealth to fund philanthropic causes. Since 2006, he served as the president of the national employers' association. A native of Djeffa, in Southeast Benin, Ajavon is running as an independent with the support of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), a component of the UN (and also part of the Socialist International) whose electoral base is to be found in the Aja-populated Southwest. Ajavon also received the support of various prominent politicians including the influential FCBE deputy for Parakou (in northeast Benin), Rachidi Gbadamassi, and the leader of the now apparently defunct United Democratic Forces (FDU), Mathurin Nago, a deputy from the southeast department of Mono. Ajavon claims to be a “100% Beninese” candidate, in contrast with the French-born Zinsou, but he entrusts the management of his campaign to Havas, a French media advertising company belonging to Vincent Bolloré, a French businessman with strong economic interests in Africa.

Patrice Talon, 57, is a cotton tycoon with no electoral experience. Talon used to be the main funder of Boni Yayi's two presidential campaigns but he broke with the outgoing president in 2012 when he was indicted, firstly for embezzlement of public funds and later for having tried to poison Boni Yayi. Talon then fled to France to escape justice and only returned in Benin in October 2015 after the charges against him had been dropped. A native of Ouidah (in southern Benin), Talon received the endorsement of the northern-based Sun Alliance. He is also supported by Candide Azannaï, an influential UN deputy from Cotonou.

Abdoulaye Bio Tchané, 63, is the candidate of the Alliance for a Triumphant Benin (ABT), his northern-based political vehicle. A native of the northern department of Donga, “ABT” is an economist who worked for the Central Bank of West African States and for the International Monetary Fund. From 2008 to 2011, he succeeded Yayi Boni as president of the West African Development Bank. “ABT” ran for president in 2011, placing third with 6.1%.

Pascal-Irénée Koupaki, 64, is the candidate of the newly founded New Awareness Rally (RNC). A native of Ouidah, he is an economist by training and, similarly to “ABT”, he worked for the Central Bank of West African States and for the International Monetary Fund. “PIK” entered Beninese politics in 2006 when he was appointed finance minister by Boni Yayi. He later served as minister for development and prime minister until 2013, when he broke with Boni Yayi.

Other noticeable candidates:

Robert Gbian aka “GGR” (for General Gbian Robert), 63, is a retired general who served as Boni Yayi's director of military cabinet between 2006 and 2012, when he broke with the president. A native of the northern department of Borgou, he played a key role in the establishment of the Sun Alliance under which banner he was elected a deputy for Borgou last year. As the Sun Alliance chose to endorse Patrice Talon, Gbian is running as the candidate of the recently created Generations for a Republican Governance (GGR).

Fernand Amoussou, 60, is also a retired general and the candidate of the Alliance of Future Forces. A native of the southwest part of the country, he served as chief of staff of the Beninese Armed Forces between 2000 and 2005 before being appointed commander of the United Nations Forces in Côte d'Ivoire. Fernand Amoussou is the brother of former PSD leader Bruno Amoussou and consequently has received the endorsement of various PSD dissidents.

Issa Salifou, 53, is the owner of a media company and the candidate of the Union for Relief (UPR). A deputy from the northern department of Alibori, he was reelected to this post in 2015 under the banner of the Sun Alliance but broke later with this party. In 2011 he already ran for president, placing fourth with 1.25%.

Marcel de Souza, 62, is a FCBE dissident and the candidate of the Republican Front of Benin (FRB). An economist, he worked for the Central Bank of West African States before being appointed minister of development by Boni Yayi. The president's brother-in-law, he resigned that post in 2015 to be elected a FCBE deputy from Cotonou.

Aké Natondé, 46, is a FCBE deputy from the southern department of Zou who served under Boni Yayi as minister of secondary and technical education and as minister of public works and transportation.

Nassirou Bako-Arifari, 53, is the candidate of the Amana (“the Truth”) party. He served as foreign minister under Boni Yayi from 2011 to 2015 before being elected deputy from the northern department of Alibori.

Karimou Chabi Sika, 61, is an independent candidate. A deputy from the northern department of Borgou, he played a key role in the establishment of the FCBE but opposed the party's decision to select Zinsou as its presidential candidate.

Marie-Élise Gbèdo, 62, is a feminist lawyer who served as minister of trade under Kérékou and as minister of justice under Boni Yayi. She had run in every single presidential election since 2001 when she became the first ever woman to run for president in Benin. In 2011 she placed eighth with 0.4%.

Mohamed Atao Hinnouho, 40, is a businessman and the youngest candidate, running under the banner of the so-called “Rally of the Elites for an Objective Success through a Triumphant Alternative with Oriented Actions” (RESO-ATAO). Since 2011, he is a deputy for Cotonou where he gained support by distributing aid to victims of floods.

Christian Lagnidé, 53, is a former soccer player and a minister for youth and sports under Kérékou. He ran for president in 2011, placing fifth with 0.65%.

Zul Kifl Salami is running for the National Congress Party. A former director of the Islamic Development Bank, he served under Kérékou as minister of planning and development. Weirdly enough, he also served as minister in the Central African government under François Bozizé. He already ran for president in 2006 (placing nineteenth with 0.28%).

Issifou Kogui N'douro, 67, is an independent candidate. The cousin of Boni Yayi, he served under him as defense minister between 2006 and 2012.

Élisabeth Agbossaga is the candidate of the Union for Democracy and Change (UDC-Nounagnon) and, with Marie-Élise Gbèdo, the only woman to run for president this year.

Gabriel Ajavon, 54, is running as an independent. A businessman, he is the elder brother of Sébastien Ajavon.

[Sir John Johns]

Sorry for not having update this thread (due to personal issues).

Anyways, the final results of first round were:

Lionel Zinsou 28.43%
Patrice Talon 24.73%
Sébastien Ajavon 22.96%
Abdoulaye Bio Tchané 8.69%
Pascal-Irénée Koupaki 5.87%
Robert Gbian 1.54%
Fernand Amoussou 1.17%
Issa Salifou 1.02%
Aké Natondé 0.88%
Nassirou Bako Arifari 0.63%
all others under 0.5%

Turnout: 66.05%

The first round saw the spectacular defeat of the historical parties(FCBE, PRD, RB, PSD) as the candidates they supported (Zinsou and Ajavon) underperformed; this is especially true for Zinsou when you remember that Boni Yayi won reelection in the first round back in 2011.

Using data from this page (results by arrondissement), I have made maps (results by commune as I can't find a map of arrondissements).





As expected Zinsou came first in most of the communes of the northern part of the country. He lost however the city of Parakou to Bio Tchané; this latter topped also the polls in his native Donga department. In the southern part of the country Zinsou won the city of Porto-Novo, a stronghold of the PRD. The endorsement of the PRD and the RB was however insufficient for Zinsou to come first in Cotonou and in the Zou department. Patrice Talon came ahead in the Fon-populated departments of Atlantique and Zou. Ajavon won in the Aja-populated Couffo and Mono departments (he apparently traces his family origins to that region) and in the Yoruba-populated Plateau department; these departments are strongholds of the Union Makes the Nation party. Finally, Fernand Amoussou won the commune of Djakotomey in his native department of Couffo.

In the second round, Talon received the endorsement of Ajavon, Bio Tchané and Koupaki. He was subsequently elected president of Benin in a landslide, winning big in the southern part of the country with over 80% of the votes in the the departments of Atlantique, Couffo, Mono, and Zou.

Patrice Talon 65.37%
Lionel Zinsou 34.63%

Turnout: 66.13%

Zinsou immediately conceded defeat, a move which was welcomed by international observers. Only two days after the election, the PRD once again switched sides and announced it will support Talon's new government.

I can't find results of the second round by arrondissements nor by communes, so I have to go with results by departments using the final results proclaimed by the Constitutional Court.