What Will Happen to the Youth Vote After The Millenial Generation?
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Never
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« on: April 28, 2014, 03:46:15 PM »

Apparently, the millenials (born between 1980-2000) are heavily Democratic, having pushed Obama to victory twice.

However, what do you think will happen to the youth vote once the millenials start moving into their thirties, and the next generation born in this century takes their place in the 18-29 bloc? Do you see them becoming more conservative, more liberal, or about the same as the millenials? It might be too soon to tell, but considering that they will start voting in Presidential elections soon, I think that the next generation could have a big impact on the results, especially if their political views as a generational cohort are different from the millienial perspective.

Personally, I think it seems like the next generation after the millenials will be reactive and somewhat Republican, similar to Generation X.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2014, 05:13:17 PM »

I would call Millenials those being born between 1977 and 1992. 

So, we've actually already had one presidential election in which people born post-1992 were allowed to vote.  Granted, I do not think we have any concrete data from the 2012 elections on voters aged 18 - 20.

According to the Strauss-Howe generational theory, the post-Millenial generation would be analogous to the Silent Generation of those born in the 1920s and 1930s.  Which apparently means that they will be a generation of political moderates and consensus-seekers whose accomplishments will most likely be overshadowed by and squeezed between the aggressive institutionalization of society that the previous generation will begin and the moral crusades of the subsequent prophetic generation.   
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Never
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2014, 08:37:17 PM »

Yes, I am familiar with the Strauss-Howe generational theory. I have read the book Generations; it is in my personal library.

I'm looking at the book right now, and after researching to see if they had any updates on the theory, it seems that the authors thought the millennials were born from 1982 until 2005. That would mean that the newest generaion has not voted yet, and that they would not be able to vote until 2024, but I really think that the new "silent" generation could have started as early as 1997, meaning we could see their impact as soon as 2016.

On the other hand, you could be right that the last millennials were born in 1992. That would put me in the new generation of Silents, a kind of generation that I identified with. When I read the book, I did not identify with the millennials, who are viewed as "civics", because I felt that every other generation just gave them a free pass as if they were being doted on, and I did not like that their kind of generation was not religiously involved. I really felt aligned with the "adaptive" type of generation that is expected to succeed the millennials, as the adaptives were shown to be very religious and detail-oriented, in addition to valuing education.

I'd say that they could be moderate, but if I am not mistaken the Silent Generation of the 1920s-1930s was somewhat more Republican than its neighboring generations.

The new "silent" generation might not be receptive to the Tea Party or the far-left. The Silent Generation of the Roaring Twenties/Great Depression did spark the Civil Rights Movement, so that might indicate that they will get behind a movement if they think it would actually help people, but only if that is the case. This new generation wouldn't just change things for change's sake, while I think the millennials might be prone to doing so.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2014, 10:17:47 PM »
« Edited: April 28, 2014, 10:20:37 PM by Del Tachi »

You have to keep in mind that when Strauss and Howe wrote Generations, the United States was still in third-turning and the crisis had yet to materialize so their dates on when the Millennial generation ends were moreso "guesses" than anything else.

I was born in 1995 and I would consider myself on the front-end of the new adaptive generation.  I don't have substantive memories of the pre-9/11 world and my views on society have been largely shaped by events that have happened since the global financial crisis.  To me, the world of today is not "in crisis" as it is the world that I have always known and to which I have accustomed.



Also, I think Strauss and Howe got the theory right but the dates wrong.  I don't think anyone born post-1956 or so can really claim to be part of the Baby Boomer generation, and people born past the mid 1970s aren't true Generation Xers.  The generation one belongs to should match the turning that society was experiencing while he was in his late childhood and teenage years, as this is when most people will be forming opinions of politics, religion, etc.  Given that, a strong argument could be made than people burn as early as the late 1980s should have strong adaptive tendencies.  



One thing that might be interesting to note is that the moral and spiritual icons of prophetic generation tend to be members of the preceding adaptive generation.  Martin Luther King, Jr., Jack Kerouac, Bob Dylan and Jerry Falwell, for example, were instrumental in the social movements of the 1960s and 1970s as icons and sages rather than organizers.  

On the other hand, America's two presidents from the Silent Generation - Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush - turned out to be uninspiring bureaucrats who were defeated for reelection by a principled civic and an idealistic prophet, respectively.

This probably means that our generation will be remembered as one of thinkers and preachers rather than leaders or rebels.  Like Nomads, we will probably be ineffective leaders but, unlike the Nomads, we will be known for our virtue and strong sense of morality as opposed to the Nomad's nihilism.   

What does this mean for how we vote?  You've got me, but I do remember reading somewhere that 18 year olds in 2012 voted for Romney.  
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2014, 10:20:19 PM »

Apparently, the millenials (born between 1980-2000) are heavily Democratic, having pushed Obama to victory twice.

However, what do you think will happen to the youth vote once the millenials start moving into their thirties, and the next generation born in this century takes their place in the 18-29 bloc? Do you see them becoming more conservative, more liberal, or about the same as the millenials? It might be too soon to tell, but considering that they will start voting in Presidential elections soon, I think that the next generation could have a big impact on the results, especially if their political views as a generational cohort are different from the millienial perspective.

Personally, I think it seems like the next generation after the millenials will be reactive and somewhat Republican, similar to Generation X.

I think the generation will range from Tossup to lean D/R, depending on the election. 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/10/democrats-have-a-young-people-problem-too/
If we zero in even further on the youngest of the millennials in these polls — those who turned 18 during Obama’s first term — the potential challenges for Democrats become even clearer. Among self-reported voters who were 18 years old in 2012, Mitt Romney, not Obama, won the majority: 57 percent.  Romney also won 59 percent among 19-year-olds, and 54 percent among 20-year-olds.  These youngest voters of 2012 had entered the electorate in 2010-2012, when Obama’s popularity was much lower than the high point of his inauguration.  Only among “the oldest of the youngest” — 21-year-olds, whose political memories would have been forged during Obama’s first year in office and perhaps during his first presidential campaign — did Obama win a clear majority (75 percent).

This one shows 18/19 year olds as pretty GOP-friendly.  This poll shows that current high schoolers aren't quite so Republican, but still more so than millenials.

http://www.american.edu/media/news/20121101_poll_obama_romney.cfm


Bottom line is, it's difficult for someone who grew up with Obama as President with Bush as a distant memory to be a hardcore Democrat.  The tea party likely shifts them more toward the middle, but I think the GOP has an advantage here.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2014, 07:55:21 PM »
« Edited: April 29, 2014, 07:57:05 PM by eric82oslo »

Don't forget that in not too many years from now, a majority of first time voters (18-21 year olds) will in fact be majority-minority. (Newborn babies are already majority-minority, while children below 5 years are about 50/50 already.) Do you really think that such a cohort will vote majority Republican? I don't think so. At least not unless GOP gets close to 50/50 with both latinos and Asians, and even under such circumstances it would be rather far-fetched I'd say, as young people will always be much more liberal than older generations.
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« Reply #6 on: April 29, 2014, 09:13:51 PM »

Don't forget that in not too many years from now, a majority of first time voters (18-21 year olds) will in fact be majority-minority. (Newborn babies are already majority-minority, while children below 5 years are about 50/50 already.) Do you really think that such a cohort will vote majority Republican? I don't think so. At least not unless GOP gets close to 50/50 with both latinos and Asians, and even under such circumstances it would be rather far-fetched I'd say, as young people will always be much more liberal than older generations.

Your last line isn't even close to true.  Maybe CULTURALLY so (i.e., less old fashioned, more accepting), but not necessarily politically.  It's sometimes odd to think this way, but the New Deal generation were MUCH more fiscally liberal than those who came of age under Ike (the current 65+ group who's voting quite Republican.  The baby boomers (who most considered liberal compared to their parents) gave rise to the Reagan/Bush 41 adolescents who still vote much more Republican than younger voters now.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2014, 10:57:28 PM »

I was born in 1995 and I would consider myself on the front-end of the new adaptive generation.  I don't have substantive memories of the pre-9/11 world and my views on society have been largely shaped by events that have happened since the global financial crisis.  To me, the world of today is not "in crisis" as it is the world that I have always known and to which I have accustomed.

I think that's a good place to end the definition for Generation Y. I personally do feel that the world is in a crisis and I think a lot of the alleged pathos afflicting people born in the '80s stems from the fact that the world our parents prepared us to live in and inherit did not materialize at all and instead we got something completely different.

I still remember how in eighth grade, my history teacher more or less gloated about how the Cold War was over and we won and the world had discovered that liberal democratic capitalism was what "worked" and we were just going to live in this boring world of an all-powerful America, a super-integrated Europe and a Russia that was an irrelevant joke. And he said we would probably never experience a prolonged war in our lifetimes. This was less than a month before September 11, 2001.

When you combine that with the bursting of the Dot Com bubble and then the bursting of the Real Estate bubble, which more or less put nails in the coffin of hoping to have the sort of middle class stability that our parents had been able to give us with not much more than a high school education, the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.

I don't take for granted that tomorrow is automatically going to be "better" than today.

I understand that poor people can be poor through no fault of their own.

I know what it's like to be afraid in a way I'm not sure an American child of any other generation in the history of this country has had to be afraid. I'd have to travel to Britain and find someone old enough to remember World War II and fearing the Germans burning them up in their sleep (or a German who feared the British doing likewise) to be able to talk to someone who actually knows how that feels.

And I manage expectations. There is something rather defeatist inherent in the fact that when I buy a cup of coffee at McDonald's in the morning, there are many other countries in the world today where the man or woman serving it would have better opportunities and more security and dignity in their life than they do here. A century ago, it would have been safe to say they were likely better off in America than anyplace else and today that is no longer the case.
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« Reply #8 on: April 30, 2014, 10:32:21 AM »

I was born in 1995 and I would consider myself on the front-end of the new adaptive generation.  I don't have substantive memories of the pre-9/11 world and my views on society have been largely shaped by events that have happened since the global financial crisis.  To me, the world of today is not "in crisis" as it is the world that I have always known and to which I have accustomed.

I think that's a good place to end the definition for Generation Y. I personally do feel that the world is in a crisis and I think a lot of the alleged pathos afflicting people born in the '80s stems from the fact that the world our parents prepared us to live in and inherit did not materialize at all and instead we got something completely different.

I still remember how in eighth grade, my history teacher more or less gloated about how the Cold War was over and we won and the world had discovered that liberal democratic capitalism was what "worked" and we were just going to live in this boring world of an all-powerful America, a super-integrated Europe and a Russia that was an irrelevant joke. And he said we would probably never experience a prolonged war in our lifetimes. This was less than a month before September 11, 2001.

When you combine that with the bursting of the Dot Com bubble and then the bursting of the Real Estate bubble, which more or less put nails in the coffin of hoping to have the sort of middle class stability that our parents had been able to give us with not much more than a high school education, the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.

I don't take for granted that tomorrow is automatically going to be "better" than today.

I understand that poor people can be poor through no fault of their own.

I know what it's like to be afraid in a way I'm not sure an American child of any other generation in the history of this country has had to be afraid. I'd have to travel to Britain and find someone old enough to remember World War II and fearing the Germans burning them up in their sleep (or a German who feared the British doing likewise) to be able to talk to someone who actually knows how that feels.

And I manage expectations. There is something rather defeatist inherent in the fact that when I buy a cup of coffee at McDonald's in the morning, there are many other countries in the world today where the man or woman serving it would have better opportunities and more security and dignity in their life than they do here. A century ago, it would have been safe to say they were likely better off in America than anyplace else and today that is no longer the case.


"the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips. "

Quoteworthy.

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2014, 01:21:08 PM »

I was born in 1995 and I would consider myself on the front-end of the new adaptive generation.  I don't have substantive memories of the pre-9/11 world and my views on society have been largely shaped by events that have happened since the global financial crisis.  To me, the world of today is not "in crisis" as it is the world that I have always known and to which I have accustomed.

I think that's a good place to end the definition for Generation Y. I personally do feel that the world is in a crisis and I think a lot of the alleged pathos afflicting people born in the '80s stems from the fact that the world our parents prepared us to live in and inherit did not materialize at all and instead we got something completely different.

I still remember how in eighth grade, my history teacher more or less gloated about how the Cold War was over and we won and the world had discovered that liberal democratic capitalism was what "worked" and we were just going to live in this boring world of an all-powerful America, a super-integrated Europe and a Russia that was an irrelevant joke. And he said we would probably never experience a prolonged war in our lifetimes. This was less than a month before September 11, 2001.

When you combine that with the bursting of the Dot Com bubble and then the bursting of the Real Estate bubble, which more or less put nails in the coffin of hoping to have the sort of middle class stability that our parents had been able to give us with not much more than a high school education, the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.

I don't take for granted that tomorrow is automatically going to be "better" than today.

I understand that poor people can be poor through no fault of their own.

I know what it's like to be afraid in a way I'm not sure an American child of any other generation in the history of this country has had to be afraid.
I'd have to travel to Britain and find someone old enough to remember World War II and fearing the Germans burning them up in their sleep (or a German who feared the British doing likewise) to be able to talk to someone who actually knows how that feels.

And I manage expectations. There is something rather defeatist inherent in the fact that when I buy a cup of coffee at McDonald's in the morning, there are many other countries in the world today where the man or woman serving it would have better opportunities and more security and dignity in their life than they do here. A century ago, it would have been safe to say they were likely better off in America than anyplace else and today that is no longer the case.

Do you really feel that you have more to be afraid of than someone born in America in 1840 or 1920?  That's a huge stretch IMO.  I get that Millennials are generally facing worse odds than anyone under 85, but I still think these generations would envy them, even after accounting for pure technological progress.  2008-present looks a lot like we are reenacting the Great Depression, but with the New Deal having already been in place from day one. 

However, most existing social programs target the elderly, who already had the benefit of living through more of the 20th century good economy, so these programs start to look regressive to the young.  Their first reaction was to try to extend as many of these programs as possible to include them.  But congress saw fit to drag its feet and what did pass is highly controversial.  And the 5% growth and 6% unemployment that would wipe out their debts remains elusive.  I sense increasing bitterness about social security/medicare/corporate welfare among the youngest of the young, but because of progressive views on social issues, they are content to leave the Dems in power for 1-2 more terms.
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Never
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« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2014, 01:58:59 PM »
« Edited: April 30, 2014, 02:47:27 PM by Never Convinced »

Don't forget that in not too many years from now, a majority of first time voters (18-21 year olds) will in fact be majority-minority. (Newborn babies are already majority-minority, while children below 5 years are about 50/50 already.) Do you really think that such a cohort will vote majority Republican? I don't think so. At least not unless GOP gets close to 50/50 with both latinos and Asians, and even under such circumstances it would be rather far-fetched I'd say, as young people will always be much more liberal than older generations.

Hm, I have some ethnic ancestry, and I would readily consider becoming a Republican more so than identifying with the Democratic party. I know that as an individual I do not speak for the majority, but I don't think that minorities will always have to identify with the Democrats. People tend to forget that not too long ago, the late Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., arguably among the most famous black men of the twentieth century, did not publicly identify with any political party. Party identification, or lack thereof, tends to change over time. For one, it was shown that the percentage of young black men (ages 18-29) who voted for President Obama over his Republican opponents dropped by 14 points from 2008 to 2012, with Obama falling from 94% of the young black male vote to 80%. Who knows what that portends for the future? Also, I don't think young people will always be more liberal than their elders, rather, I would say that young people almost always look at things differently from the older generations. Different does not equal more liberal.
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« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2014, 08:10:42 PM »

I'm born in 1991 and it's crazy to think people don't have memories of 9/11 and how the world felt different overnight. That being said, the younger generations keep getting more racially diverse and people like my sister who's now 18 are aligning strongly in the Democrat camp. The GOP Outreach doesn't speak to people like us, honestly
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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2014, 12:33:20 AM »

I think the bottom line is that the Republican Party has to hope that people about my age are finally getting into the Middle Class and that more young Hispanic and Asian men and women will start to stop thinking of themselves as Hispanic or Asian.

43 won because he was able to campaign on letting youngs and minorities "in on the action" with "Compassionate Conservatism" and "The Ownership Society". The foundation of this was laid with the repeal of Glass-Steagall  and Clinton's general acquiescence to the right following the Republican Revolution. However, this was washed away with the crash of '08. The key for the Republicans to neutralize this coalition against them is to build a new Rovian coalition.

 Basically, the Republicans can just campaign on what 43 originally offered (a much more dovish version of what he actually gave) once people get fatigued of the Democrats (which they might already be doing). The only problem is that because of the centralization of wealth that has happen since 2008, in order to get the same growth and inclusiveness they need to be elected, they will have to have a more aggressive borrowing scheme in place.

Eventually, this will lead to a situation where it historians will argue why this period of far-right politics ended. The argument will be because whether demographics created an indefensible position or whether to the pot had to be sweetened to sell a more and more radical agenda to the point that it became unworkable.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2014, 09:50:50 PM »

I was born in 1995 and I would consider myself on the front-end of the new adaptive generation.  I don't have substantive memories of the pre-9/11 world and my views on society have been largely shaped by events that have happened since the global financial crisis.  To me, the world of today is not "in crisis" as it is the world that I have always known and to which I have accustomed.

I think that's a good place to end the definition for Generation Y. I personally do feel that the world is in a crisis and I think a lot of the alleged pathos afflicting people born in the '80s stems from the fact that the world our parents prepared us to live in and inherit did not materialize at all and instead we got something completely different.

I still remember how in eighth grade, my history teacher more or less gloated about how the Cold War was over and we won and the world had discovered that liberal democratic capitalism was what "worked" and we were just going to live in this boring world of an all-powerful America, a super-integrated Europe and a Russia that was an irrelevant joke. And he said we would probably never experience a prolonged war in our lifetimes. This was less than a month before September 11, 2001.

When you combine that with the bursting of the Dot Com bubble and then the bursting of the Real Estate bubble, which more or less put nails in the coffin of hoping to have the sort of middle class stability that our parents had been able to give us with not much more than a high school education, the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.

I don't take for granted that tomorrow is automatically going to be "better" than today.

I understand that poor people can be poor through no fault of their own.

I know what it's like to be afraid in a way I'm not sure an American child of any other generation in the history of this country has had to be afraid.
I'd have to travel to Britain and find someone old enough to remember World War II and fearing the Germans burning them up in their sleep (or a German who feared the British doing likewise) to be able to talk to someone who actually knows how that feels.

And I manage expectations. There is something rather defeatist inherent in the fact that when I buy a cup of coffee at McDonald's in the morning, there are many other countries in the world today where the man or woman serving it would have better opportunities and more security and dignity in their life than they do here. A century ago, it would have been safe to say they were likely better off in America than anyplace else and today that is no longer the case.

Do you really feel that you have more to be afraid of than someone born in America in 1840 or 1920?  That's a huge stretch IMO.  I get that Millennials are generally facing worse odds than anyone under 85, but I still think these generations would envy them, even after accounting for pure technological progress.  2008-present looks a lot like we are reenacting the Great Depression, but with the New Deal having already been in place from day one. 

However, most existing social programs target the elderly, who already had the benefit of living through more of the 20th century good economy, so these programs start to look regressive to the young.  Their first reaction was to try to extend as many of these programs as possible to include them.  But congress saw fit to drag its feet and what did pass is highly controversial.  And the 5% growth and 6% unemployment that would wipe out their debts remains elusive.  I sense increasing bitterness about social security/medicare/corporate welfare among the youngest of the young, but because of progressive views on social issues, they are content to leave the Dems in power for 1-2 more terms.

I think you misunderstood him. He didn't say he had more to be afraid of, but rather a different fear unique to our generation. Which, as an 18 year old, I agree with: our generation is probably going to be the first in centuries to have a lower standard of living than preceding generations. Add that to a safety net at risk, plus terrorism and mass shootings at schools, malls, movie theaters, etc., the "guarantees" of hard work going out the window, the downsides of technological development, etc. etc. etc.

He means all these things are adding up to create an extremely uncertain future for our generation that is unique.
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Sol
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« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2014, 03:38:33 PM »

our generation is probably going to be the first in centuries to have a lower standard of living than preceding generations.

no.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2014, 09:09:18 AM »

Didn't Quiverfull pick up steam in the mid-'90s? If the newest voters aren't as liberal, maybe that's why.
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