2016: For The Ages

[badgate]

Prologue

The 2014 Midterms

Key Races
Alaska - Mark Begich: 116,711; 53%, Joe Miller: 146,170; 47%
Arkansas - Mark Pryor: 509,766; 49.6%, Tom Cotton: 499,003; 48.6%, Other: 18,985; 1.8%
Colorado - Mark Udall: 1,071,340; 48%, Cory Gardner: 1,160,619; 52%
Georgia - Michelle Nunn: 1,857,026; 50.12%, Karen Handel: 1,848,133; 49.88%
Kentucky - Alison Lundergan Grimes: 879,330; 48.4%, Mitch McConnell: 911,007; 50.1%, Ed Marksberry: 26,484; 1.5%
Louisiana - Mary Landrieu: 911,436; 49.1%, Bill Cassidy: 944,850; 50.9%
Michigan - Gary Peters: 2,239,755; 48.38%, Terri Lynn Land: 2,399,701; 51.72%
Mississippi - Travis Childers: 569,011; 48.51%, Chris McDaniel: 604,138; 51.49%
South Dakota - Stephanie Herseth Sandlin: 225,019; 52%, Stace Nelson: 205,579; 48%





Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives, and by a very close margin lost the popular vote for Senate, as well as coming one seat short of retaking the upper legislative chamber. Vice President Joe Biden became a more prominent figure given his tie-breaker status in the Senate. Ruth Bader Ginsburg announced her retiring the Thursday after Midterm election day; by December 11th, the Lame Duck Congress had brought her replacement up to the floor of the Senate. President Obama squeezed all his remaining capital from the lame duck Democrats, and Brooklyn District Attorney Ken Thompson was confirmed to the Supreme Court by a margin of 53-45-2.



Despite retaining the Senate, by March 2015 it was clear that President Obama was a lame duck. On April 2, 2015, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced that she would not run for President, stating: 'My time is past. I am enjoying my retirement, my private life, and I believe it is up to the future of this party to decide for itself who will be the next President. Five years from now, the entirety of the Millenial generation will vote for the first time. I don't want them voting for a baby boomer like me. It's time for America to move on.'

[badgate]

I: The Candidates


Hillary Clinton's statement pointed towards a lack of support for other old dogs in the Democratic party, and that turned out to be true. As candidates began to announce, Clinton withheld her endorsement, as did President Obama.

Clinton's reluctance to run also set off dominos on the Republican side. Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida, announced two weeks after Clinton that he would also not be running for President. Establishment types panicked: their top choice, Chris Christie, was serving time in Federal prison. Their understudy had just called in sick. And Rand Paul was met with 36% of Republican Primary support the week after he announced his candidacy. The old wheels that failed to move Mitch Daniels and Haley Barbour in 2012 spun again, and this time, they were successful.


"This is a country that thrives on second chances. A country built on hard work, on perseverance, on never saying no and always striving for more for your family and your nation. And so it is with pride in my heart that I will once again run for President of the United States."

The Democrats

Vice President Joe Biden (DE)


Governor Andrew Cuomo (NY)


Frmr. Governor Brian Schweitzer (MT)


Governor Martin O'Malley (MD)


Governor Jay Nixon (MO)


Congressman Keith Ellison (MN)

With Clinton out of the race, EMILY'S List, NOW, Planned Parenthood, and NARAL all convened in August of 2015 to discuss the lack of a female candidate in the race. A "Draft Elizabeth Warren" campaign had gained 200,000 signatures online within 48 hours, but Warren had again passed on a campaign for President. In fact, no Democratic female Senator was even demurring on the possibility of a run. With the Democratic majority in jeopardy, most pols speculated that as the reason why.

The Republicans

Frmr. Senator Rick Santorum (PA)


Frmr. Governor Rick Perry (TX)


Frmr. Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney (MA)


Senator Rand Paul (KY)


Senator Kelly Ayotte (NH)


Ben Carson (MD)


Frmr. Governor Mike Huckabee (AR)

As the months rolled on, the minutia of caucus and retail politics wore on all of the candidates. Ellison (D-MN) saw a rise, but could not seem to break out of the 20% bracket. Women's groups were still frustrated with their choices and the lack of female representation in the debates and on the ballot.

On the filing deadline, Marco Rubio (R-FL) entered the race, but fizzed out after being catch-of-the-week. On the Democratic side, the late entries were former Rep. Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D-SC) and perennial candidate Dennis Kucinich. When New Years Eve came, Vice President Biden still held a healthy lead ahead of the pack. But there were rumblings on the horizon of a third party. The movement that Clinton had spoken of over six months ago was on the rise...

[badgate]

II: Run, Liz, Run

The Women's Rights groups that had met in August met again in January following the late entry of former Rep. Elizabeth Colbert Busch. Busch, who had served as Congresswoman from mid-2013 to January of 2015, was virtually unknown outside of her home state and hardcore Democratic circles. She polled within the margin of error in the first survey taken after her candidacy was announced. Besides, there had been a plan in the works for six weeks that Busch had almost ruined.

It was well known that Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) had openly spoken of a third-party Presidential campaign if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic nominee. But Sanders backed down when Clinton did; and said months later that he was retiring at the end of his term. But the idea of an independent campaign stuck with many people.



Finally, on Jan. 8, 2016, a joint PAC filed suit to get Senator Elizabeth Warren on the ballots in New Hampshire, Florida, and South Dakota: the first three primary states. South Carolina was transitioning to a caucus format, and besides, new laws signed by President Obama and written by the Republican Congress had made it harder to get a late-entry onto a caucus ballot.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mordecai]

lol Romney

Go Biden!

[Brewer]

Go Nixon!

[badgate]

III: Another Hundred People


Jay Nixon, the Governor of Missouri, unexpectedly withdrew from the nomination race two weeks before the Iowa caucuses. Nixon gave a cryptic statement, and his press people have not responded to any calls or requests for comment. The Governor's fundraising was low, but he had a dynamite presence that many expected to help him in South Carolina, as well Iowa. Regardless, we go into Iowa with a more centralized group of four major players: Biden, Cuomo, Schweitzer, and Warren.



Final Pre-Iowa Poll
Democrats
It looks like Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is sneaking up on the pack here. She entered the race with 6% support in Iowa, and has now taken third-though it is within the margin of error-place away from Governor Nixon. Vice President Biden narrowly leads behind former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer. Iowa goes to the caucuses one week from today.
Joe Biden - 27%
Brian Schweitzer - 23%
Elizabeth Warren - 16%
Andrew Cuomo - 14%
Keith Ellison - 10%
Martin O'Malley - 4%
Elizabeth Colbert Busch - 4%
On the GOP side, the voters in Iowa are still very conflicted; and there is 17% of the primary electorate up for grabs.
Republicans
Mike Huckabee - 17%
Rand Paul - 15%
Ben Carson - 14%
Mitt Romney - 12%
Rick Perry - 10%
Kelly Ayotte - 9%
Rick Santorum - 6%
Undecided - 17%





Democrats
Brian Schweitzer - 31%
Joe Biden - 29%
Andrew Cuomo - 20%
Elizabeth Warren - 19%
Keith Ellison - 1%
Martin O'Malley - 0%
Elizabeth Colbert Busch - 0%


Republicans
Rand Paul - 35%
Mitt Romney - 28%
Mike Huckabee - 25%
Ben Carson - 12%
Kelly Ayotte - 0%
Rick Perry - 0%
Rick Santorum - 0%


What nobody knew was that Governor Nixon's withdrawal had been planned by his campaign. For every day that his people declined to comment, there were more free media stories upping Nixon's name recognition. A billionaire donor was funneling money into PACs to fund Nixon's independent bid, but the day after Iowa it all fell apart. Nobody actually thought that Biden would lose; despite looking weak in the general election, many thought he was unbeatable in the early primary states. But as Schweitzer took the mantle of front-runner, Nixon was left high and dry with his statistics from Nate Silver, and a crushed dream.

[badgate]

IV: The Dropouts




Supreme Court to Take Case on Anonymous Political Donations
The Supreme Court announced that it would hear in February a case that takes on the Court's previous rulings on campaign finance, including the infamous Citizens United ruling. The Court had rejected the case last session, and President Obama has privately lobbied the Justices to take it. It is unlikely that the court will rule how President Obama wants. An ideal ruling would require public disclosure for everything.

Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley left the Presidential race after his failure in Iowa.


Former South Carolina Rep. Elizabeth Colbert Busch announced that she was focusing her efforts on South Carolina, and would 'reassess' after that caucus.

Rick Santorum, former Presidential candidate and Pennsylvania Senator: 'I won't waste the primary voters time by staying in this race. They have spoken.'


New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte declared that she would remain in the race into the New Hampshire primary.


Rick Perry, former Governor of Texas, left the presidential race after his last-place finish in Iowa.

Minnesota Congressman Keith Ellison vowed to stay in the Presidential race. Speaking in Unity, NH, the Congressman stated that he would at least remain in the race after South Carolina. The Congressman continues to push the debate towards campaign finance and ethics. With news about the new Supreme Court case, the wind is at Ellison's back on this issue, and he is quickly endearing himself to the primary voters in New Hampshire.

Vice President Joe Biden saw his fundraising virtually disappear after he lost Iowa. His lead had been tenuous for months, and President Obama's reluctance to endorse him without a few primary states under his belt made him look weak to primary voters. Fundraising, in fact, had been hard for other candidates as well. Unbeknownst to the other candidates, Andrew Cuomo was preparing to lend his campaign $500,000 to get through South Carolina.





Democrats
Elizabeth Warren - 30%
Brian Schweitzer - 26%
Keith Ellison - 21%
Joe Biden - 12%
Andrew Cuomo - 6%
Elizabeth Colbert Busch - 5%


Republicans
Rand Paul - 34%
Kelly Ayotte - 32%
Mitt Romney - 21%
Mike Huckabee - 10%
Ben Carson - 3%

Ben Carson, after an embarrassing 3% finish, left the Presidential race the night of the New Hampshire primary.

Directly one day after the New Hampshire primaries, Hillary Clinton scheduled an event with the candidate she would endorse...

[OnlyAlb]

Romney has my support.

[badgate]

V: Winding Road




Democrats
Brian Schweitzer - 29%
Elizabeth Colbert Busch - 26%
Elizabeth Warren - 22%
Joe Biden - 13%
Keith Ellison - 6%
Andrew Cuomo - 4%


Republicans
Mike Huckabee - 35%
Mitt Romney - 34%
Rand Paul - 21%
Kelly Ayotte - 7%

Former Congresswoman Elizabeth Colbert Busch exited the Presidential nomination race after failing to win her home state of South Carolina. Busch offered her support to the emerging frontrunner, former Governor of Montana Brian Schweitzer.

After losing her home state, and coming in last in South Carolina, New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte has left the Republican nomination race. Ayotte did not endorse a candidate.

Congressman Keith Ellison dutifully ended his campaign after failing to gain traction in South Carolina.

Democrats
Joe Biden - 39%
Elizabeth Warren - 35%
Brian Schweitzer - 20%
Andrew Cuomo - 6%


Republicans
Mitt Romney - 41%
Mike Huckabee - 33%
Rand Paul - 29%



After his third-place finish in Florida, fundraising for the pro-Schweitzer PAC "America's Next Frontier" mysteriously spiked.

Andrew Cuomo Surrenders!

Democrats
Elizabeth Warren - 37%
Brian Schweitzer - 36%
Joe Biden - 27%


Republicans
Rand Paul - 45%
Mitt Romney - 34%
Mike Huckabee - 21%


While Schweitzer was mysteriously receiving millions in donations, reports surfaced that his PAC had set up field operations in all of the Super Tuesday states. In an effort to reduce the ability for insurgent candidates to withhold or win the nomination from chosen 'establishment' candidates, many pre-Super Tuesday states were condensed into one large day where a large portion of the nation will vote or caucus in a primary.

Vice President Joe Biden had yet to secure the endorsement of his boss, and Elizabeth Warren was on the rise. Schweitzer's campaign looked clearly like it was ramping up to knock both out in one punch.

Across the aisle, many Republicans were less skeptical of Mitt Romney's campaign after his victory in Florida. The state once again became a crucial one for his success or failure in the Republican primary. Despite losing Nevada, Romney was gaining ground nationally, and his supporters were proudly touting a new poll that claimed 69% of Americans would still consider voting for Romney despite his loss in 2012. The poll also claims 79% of Republicans are confident Romney could win if nominated again. But Rand Paul keeps coming up with the votes.

Mike Huckabee was losing steam after his narrow South Carolina victory. Fundraising was drying up, and going into the big Super Tuesday his campaign focused on a small set of crucial states for his candidacy. At the final Republican debate before Super Tuesday, Huckabee made a very powerful statement to an audience member who had been fired on January 20, 2009 and was still unemployed. Paul was not a notable figure at the debate; a strange occurrence, while Romney bantered with the moderator and was the only candidate do present any real ideas about what they'd do in office at this particular debate.


Democratic Primary Map

Frmr. Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren
Vice President Joe Biden

Republican Primary Map

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul
Frmr. Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
Frmr. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney

[badgate]

VI: What Happened to the Democrats on Super Tuesday?



Joe Biden - 36%
Elizabeth Warren - 33%
Brian Schweitzer - 31%


Elizabeth Warren - 69%
Brian Schweitzer - 21%
Joe Biden 10%


Joe Biden - 39%
Brian Schweitzer - 38%
Elizabeth Warren - 23%


Brian Schweitzer - 45%
Elizabeth Warren - 36%
Joe Biden 19%


Brian Schweitzer - 56%
Joe Biden - 32%
Elizabeth Warren - 12%


Brian Schweitzer - 36%
Elizabeth Warren - 34%
Joe Biden - 30%


Brian Schweitzer - 41%
Elizabeth Warren - 31%
Joe Biden - 28%


Brian Schweitzer - 37%
Elizabeth Warren - 35%
Joe Biden - 28%


Joe Biden - 38%
Brian Schweitzer - 38%
Elizabeth Warren - 26%


Joe Biden - 36%
Brian Schweitzer - 35%
Elizabeth Warren - 29%


Brian Schweitzer - 44%
Elizabeth Warren - 34%
Joe Biden - 22%


Brian Schweitzer - 48%
Joe Biden - 30%
Elizabeth Warren - 22%


Joe Biden - 37%
Elizabeth Warren - 35%
Brian Schweitzer - 27%


Elizabeth Warren - 49%
Brian Schweitzer - 31%
Joe Biden - 20%

Brian Schweitzer - 9 States
Joe Biden - 6 States
Elizabeth Warren - 4 States


Going out of Super Tuesday, Brian Schweitzer had all the momentum and was in the drivers' seat. BIden's upsets in Oklahoma and Georgia justified his continued presence in the race, but Elizabeth Warren exited the race when her candidacy failed to break out of the New England region. Dropping out of the race, many saw Warren's refusal to endorse Biden or Schweitzer as a signal that she was not interested in Vice President.

Biden staked his candidacy on winning in Hawai'i and Ohio in the coming weeks. The consensus was that Schweitzer was pulling in the high 60s in Utah, and mid-50s in Mississippi. Some predicted that  if Schweitzer won all four, or even 3 of the four, Biden will likely quickly run out of steam. Of course, Biden winning Ohio but losing the other three, much smaller states, would probably keep his campaign going. In the first national primary poll without Elizabeth Warren in the mix, Schweitzer won 41% to Biden's 38%, with 21% of Democrats undecided.

[badgate]

VII: Circus Peanuts



Mitt Romney - 51%
Mike Huckabee - 38%
Rand Paul - 11%


Mitt Romney - 56%
Rand Paul - 29%
Mike Huckabee - 15%


Rand Paul - 48%
Mike Huckabee - 31%
Mitt Romney - 21%


Mike Huckabee - 39%
Rand Paul - 37%
Mitt Romney - 24%


Rand Paul - 43%
Mitt Romney - 39%
Mike Huckabee - 18%


Mitt Romney - 47%
Rand Paul - 32%
Mike Huckabee - 21%


Mike Huckabee - 38%
Rand Paul - 36%
Mitt Romney - 26%


Mitt Romney - 41%
Rand Paul - 40%
Mike Huckabee - 19%


Rand Paul - 45%
Mike Huckabee - 38%
Mitt Romney - 17%


Mike Huckabee - 52%
Mitt Romney - 28%
Rand Paul - 20%


Rand Paul - 44%
Mike Huckabee - 29%
Mitt Romney - 27%


Rand Paul - 49%
Mike Huckabee - 41%
Mitt Romney - 10%


Mitt Romney - 36%
Rand Paul - 33%
Mike Huckabee - 31%


Mitt Romney - 48%
Rand Paul - 38%
Mike Huckabee - 14%

Rand Paul - 8 States
Mitt Romney - 7 States
Mike Huckabee - 4 States


After the Republican's Super Tuesday, the mainstream media fed off of the divided results into their narrative of a crumbling Republican Party. All three candidates descended upon the state of Washington the following day, where the northwestern state would decide absolutely nothing. Were Romney to win, he would say that it meant his argument as the most credible candidate was true. If Paul were to win, he would claim that it meant the momentum was on his side. And Huckabee would say his victory symbolized his appeal outside of the south and midwest. But that was all spin. No matter who won, the real contest was the March 8th contest of Hawai'i, Mississippi, and Ohio.

Many Republicans in D.C. hoped the day would give way to a clear frontrunner. But in the meantime, they turned their attention to the now clear frontrunner of the Democratic race, and began feeding stories about financial corruption and lies about Schweitzer's position on guns to the press.



Rand Paul - 39%
Mitt Romney - 36%
Mike Huckabee - 25%

Rand Paul - 9 States
Mitt Romney - 7 States
Mike Huckabee - 4 States

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Come on Paul! You can do it!

[badgate]

VIII: Duality of Democracy

Democrats

Brian Schweitzer - 59%
Joe Biden - 41%


Brian Schweitzer - 51%
Joe Biden - 49%


Vice President Joe Biden reluctantly exited his final Presidential race, stating that the party needed to unite before the Republicans did.


Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, presumptive Democratic nominee for the presidency


Republicans

Rand Paul - 45%
Mitt Romney - 39%
Mike Huckabee - 16%


Rand Paul - 66%
Mitt Romney - 23%
Mike Huckabee - 11%


Mike Huckabee resigned the Presidential race and endorsed Rand Paul, stating that Romney had his chance and had lost it. Huckabee also called on Romney to drop out, but it doesn't seem likely yet.


Republican Primary Map

Rand Paul - 11 States + Huckabee's 4
Mitt Romney - 7 States
Mike Huckabee - 4 States


Democratic Primary Map

Brian Schweitzer - 11 States + Biden's 6 + Warren's 4
Joe Biden - 6 States
Elizabeth Warren - 4 States

[badgate]

VEEPSTAKES
On July 1, 2016, the Schweitzer campaign released its final Vice Presidential short list.

• Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown
• North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan
• Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill
• Frmr. Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick

[badgate]

FLASH FORWARD: PAUL VS SCHWEITZER

Republican Primary Map

Rand Paul - 39 States + Huckabee's 4 + Romney's 7
Mitt Romney - 7 States
Mike Huckabee - 4 States


Democratic Primary Map

Brian Schweitzer - 40 States + Biden's 6 + Warren's 4
Joe Biden - 6 States
Elizabeth Warren - 4 States

VEEPSTAKES
On June 26, 2016, the Paul campaign leaked its final Vice Presidential short list to the press.

• Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval
• Illinois Senator Mark Kirk
• West Virginia Senator Shelley Moore Capito
• Ohio Governor John Kasich

[Maxwell]

Paul/Kasich would probably have the least revolt, but I would prefer Paul/Sandoval.

Schweitzer/Brown would interestingly double down on populism. Schweitzer/Hagan would help him with the south though.

[DKrol]

Senator Rand Paul/Governor Brian Sandoval v. Governor Brian Schweitzer/Senator Claire McCaskill

[TX Conservative Dem]

Badgate, Bob Casey is from Pennsylvania. Can you fix the Senate map page ?

[badgate]

Badgate, Bob Casey is from Pennsylvania. Can you fix the Senate map page ?

Thanks.

[Enderman]

Bump!

[Enderman]

Bumping... Again...