Gov. Quinn(D-IL) Target of Criminal Probe

[MurrayBannerman]

And he'll still win because Cook County is a powerhouse. NEXT.

Exactly, which is why Mark Kirk lost Alexi Giannoulias in 2010, right?


Quinn survived in 2010 by 30,000 votes. In the collar counties he won low-mid 50% ranges, primarily on his promise not to raise taxes, and his "reformer" image. There was still a "Let's give this guy a chance" feeling in Illinois, and Brady was big on social conservativism in a socially moderate state.

Mark Kirk won in the same election by 60,000 votes, blowing Giannoulias out of the collar counties (mid-high 50%) and wiping the floor with him downstate.

Quinn's goodwill is completely gone. Quinn is actually campaigning on making the tax increase he lied about permanent. Rauner is more like Kirk, being socially moderate and focusing mostly on the economy and budget problems. He picked a good running mate, and his campaign looks to do serious damage to Quinn.

I legitimately, sincerely believe Rauner could nartowly win this thing if he plays his cards right.

And even in 2010, the "moderate" Kirk only narrowly won. 2014 isn't going to be nearly as favorable to Republican as 2010. It's very unlikely an anti-minimum wage candidate in a heavily Democratic state will wi.

Kirk has the incumbency advantage now.

[MurrayBannerman]

And he'll still win because Cook County is a powerhouse. NEXT.

Exactly, which is why Mark Kirk lost Alexi Giannoulias in 2010, right?


Quinn survived in 2010 by 30,000 votes. In the collar counties he won low-mid 50% ranges, primarily on his promise not to raise taxes, and his "reformer" image. There was still a "Let's give this guy a chance" feeling in Illinois, and Brady was big on social conservativism in a socially moderate state.

Mark Kirk won in the same election by 60,000 votes, blowing Giannoulias out of the collar counties (mid-high 50%) and wiping the floor with him downstate.

Quinn's goodwill is completely gone. Quinn is actually campaigning on making the tax increase he lied about permanent. Rauner is more like Kirk, being socially moderate and focusing mostly on the economy and budget problems. He picked a good running mate, and his campaign looks to do serious damage to Quinn.

I legitimately, sincerely believe Rauner could nartowly win this thing if he plays his cards right.

And even in 2010, the "moderate" Kirk only narrowly won. 2014 isn't going to be nearly as favorable to Republican as 2010. It's very unlikely an anti-minimum wage candidate in a heavily Democratic state will wi.

Kirk has the incumbency advantage now.

Doesn't matter, in a presidential year, Kirk is at a serious disadvantage, incumbent or not.

It does matter because you're posing false equivalencies.