Who will win in Colorado?

[Senator Cris]

Who will win in Colorado?

[sg0508]

Udall.  Again, the GOP will look back at CO with two winnable races at the top of the ticket and ask themselves "what happened?".  Well, when your party for the state is too far to the right, that's what happens time and time again. 

[RogueBeaver]

For now Udall, but that can obviously change.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Udall.  Again, the GOP will look back at CO with two winnable races at the top of the ticket and ask themselves "what happened?".  Well, when your party for the state is too far to the right, that's what happens time and time again. 

This.  Of course, they'll just dismiss it though by saying that they never would've had a chance with a more center-right "RINO."

[RogueBeaver]

If you consider Ken Buck a RINO... cause otherwise he'd have been the nominee again.

[windjammer]

What Rogue has said.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

If you consider Ken Buck a RINO... cause otherwise he'd have been the nominee again.

No.  I'm just making fun of Republicans who parrot the ludicrous claim that the GOP loses when they nominate "moderates."

[morgieb]

Udall. Don't quite think this is the right cycle for him to lose.

[5280]

Udall might pull it off, but he's still a spineless buffoon.

[illegaloperation]

Udall, obviously.

He's an incumbent Democrat running in a blue state.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Udall, obviously.

He's an incumbent Democrat running in a blue state.

Even though it's been like twelve years or something since the Republicans have won a significant statewide election, I wouldn't consider it a "blue" state.

[SWE]

Udall. If Republicans couldn't pull this off in 2010, I don't see it happening this year

[Maxwell]

Lean Udall, but the polls have been super surprising, and Gardner is doing a lot of the right moves to make this seat competitive.

[Kevin]

Lean Udall, but the polls have been super surprising, and Gardner is doing a lot of the right moves to make this seat competitive.

Agreed,

Gardner seems to be running a better campaign in comparison to Buck. Also Udall's position in the polls this far out is def not encouraging for the Democrats.

However, that being said I have the feeling that Udall will probably pull it out in the end.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Udall as of now, though the race is competitive.

[Vosem]

I do think Udall is narrowly favored unless the environment gets a bit better for Republicans, but it's important to remember, considering 2010, that Gardner is a far stronger and more polished candidate than Buck, and that Bennet is probably somewhat stronger than Udall as well. This is an important state for Republicans to do well in -- it was the decisive state in 2012 and co-decisive with Iowa in 2008.

Keep in mind that Buck, a very flawed, hard-right candidate with almost a comically terrible record on women's issues, still only lost by 2 points after leading in the polls for most of the campaign. Had Republicans nominated someone merely inoffensive that year (Jane Norton/Cory Gardner), they would've won. Gardner is not Buck, and Udall is no Bennet -- but, at the same time, 2014 is not shaping up to be as decisive as 2010, and that may still save Udall.

[Vosem]

Vosem, it's interesting you say that, because the general consensus seems to be that Udall is a better politician than Bennet is. Other than that, I agree with your evaluation.

Udall definitely has more experience, but his House district was (is) a pretty safe Democratic, left-wing place. In the 2008 Senate race, he didn't really have to fight for it; he was unopposed in the primary he faced a Republican way too right-wing for the state (this is an unfortunate pattern in Colorado) who on top of that was kind of a has-been, in the best year for Colorado Democrats in recent history, when they won the House delegation 5-2. (As an aside, Udall underperformed polling to a degree in 2008; the final RCP average was Udall+13, but the actual result was Udall+10; even as the same polls significantly underestimated Obama, predicting Obama+6 while the result was Obama+9; I don't know what/why this is but it definitely can't be a sign of strength). So this is going to be Udall's first-ever go at a truly 50/50 D/R race, and probably his greatest challenge since the House primary in 1998. Bennet, by contrast, was a newcomer, but ran a very impressive, polished campaign in 2010. In the Senate, Bennet has risen quickly into leadership (becoming chair of the DSCC, which has recently been a position that Senators on both sides -- like Chuck Schumer or John Cornyn -- have used to become very influential in the caucus), but Udall has remained a relatively anonymous backbencher, and generally strength in the caucus translates into strength in things like fundraising. So I think judging by their records Bennet is a more impressive candidate than Udall.

[Lief 🗽]

Udall. So far this race looks exactly like every other competitive statewide race in Colorado over the past few years, and we all know how those turned out in the end.

[sg0508]

I think one of the biggest questions in CO is, "is the GOP brand there so bad with the parade of hard-right, flawed and even offensive candidates they've fielded there in races since Bush's narrow carrying of the state in 2004 that now, all GOP candidates are viewed the same, fairly or unfairly?"If that's the case, the GOP is in even bigger trouble.

[TJ in Oregon]

I think one of the biggest questions in CO is, "is the GOP brand there so bad with the parade of hard-right, flawed and even offensive candidates they've fielded there in races since Bush's narrow carrying of the state in 2004 that now, all GOP candidates are viewed the same, fairly or unfairly?"If that's the case, the GOP is in even bigger trouble.

If they weren't going to be before, they sure will be if that's the message. Are you trying to push this as a narrative? Has Gardner done something to earn your ire?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

This is an important state for Republicans to do well in -- it was the decisive state in 2012 and co-decisive with Iowa in 2008.

Obama would've won even without Colorado.

[Vosem]

This is an important state for Republicans to do well in -- it was the decisive state in 2012 and co-decisive with Iowa in 2008.

Obama would've won even without Colorado.

Assuming universal swing, this is incorrect:

Romney wins 275-263. In 2008, that map would've been a 269-269 tie and thrown to the House; McCain would've needed Iowa, the next closest state, to win. In 2012 the next closest Obama state was Pennsylvania.

[Indy Texas]

Cory Gardner's problem is that spending any amount of time as a member of the House Republican caucus and having to vote that way is almost guaranteed to make you unpalatable as a statewide candidate in a state that isn't safely Republican.

He's been trying to move to the center, but he has a record that he has to answer to. The Republicans in Colorado would be better off trying to recruit candidates who haven't served in a legislative office before. Maybe head over to Fort Collins and find some nice, photogenic USAF member who isn't some sort of right-wing fundamentalist. Maybe find a libertarian-ish microbrewery owner who can be the Entrepreneur/Job Creator.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Udall at the time of typing, I wouldn't write off Gardner just yet.

[Never]

Gardner will win. It appears that 2014 is going to have at least the same environment as 2010. Also, some generic congressional ballot polls are showing that the Democrats have a much closer lead this year compared to four years ago, and in 2010 the Democrats lost the House despite that larger lead, and they very well could have ended up with just 50/50 control of the Senate if it weren't for the shoddy Republican Senate candidates in CO, NV, and DE.

Gardner is a much stronger candidate than Ken Buck, yet Buck still lost by a very narrow margin. If the Republicans take control of the Senate, this seat will probably go to the GOP, and right now, I think the Republicans are slightly favored to win the Senate.

It also seems like early leaders in the polls tend to lose ground closer to the election, and considering how small Udall's advantage is, especially when compared to that of the Democratic senators up for reelection in the South, I think Udall is in big danger.