US unemployment rate down significantly in April, about 300.000 jobs created

[Tender Branson]

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. added the most jobs in April in more than two years, the latest evidence of a spring revival in the economy that offers hope of faster growth in the months ahead. The unemployment rate also fell sharply to a nearly six-year low of 6.3%.

The economy created 288,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said Friday, marking the best performance since a 360,000 gain in January 2012. Employment gains for March and February were also revised up by a combined 36,000.

The nation’s unemployment rate, meanwhile, dropped to 6.3% from 6.7%. It was the biggest one-month decline in 31 years and put the jobless rate at its lowest level since September 2008.



http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economy-gains-288000-jobs-in-april-2014-05-02?dist=lcountdown

[Matty]

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[Tender Branson]

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LFP doesn't really matter though when it comes to making a difference in people's opinions about Obama: People mostly care about how high/low the UE-rate is and how many jobs are created. And if voters read these positive headline numbers in the news for few consecutive months, their opinions of Obama will likely go up. Maybe even in time for the midterms. But even in a more helpful way by 2016.

[Matty]

Unemployment is measured by people "actively" looking for work who cannot find a job. When such a large number of people give up looking for work, it artificially lowers the unemployment rate, since those people are no longer actively looking for work. 288K is a good number, but it is not the reason unemployment fell. The economy is something that you cannot change public opinion on through shady statistical political ploys. People experience the true economy everyday- they trust their personal experiences far more than statistics.

I hope in the future we can have good job growth "and" a rise in the participation rate, but i don't see it happening. Also, if democrats do indeed prop this up for the midterms, wouldn't is basically contradict their constant "obstructionist republican" message.

[AggregateDemand]

"Erica Groshen, the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, said the rate mainly fell because far fewer people entered the labor force than usual. "

I want to be enthusiastic, but Americans are just giving up on this economy.

[jaichind]

Looking at the LFP rate by age group is also interesting.  It is the 25-34 group rate that crashed this time to 80.6% which is the lowest since 1981.  The 35-44 group rate of 82.3 also fell but is roughly the same since mid 2012.  The 45-54 group rate of 79.7 is also about where it has been since early 2013.  The 55-64 group rate of 64.1 is mostly around the same since early 2008.  And the 65+ reate of 18.9 has been rising over time and has been around the same since mid 2012.  So the real reason for the record low LFP of 62.8 is really has to do with the 25-34 rate.  This tells me that this economy is healing for those with experience and skills for for those entering into the workforce their prospects seem poor.  Also a poor work experience in the 25-34 period means the same people will have lower income of the rest of their life as necessary skills and networks are not built.

To be fair, back in Dec 2013 and Oct 2013 LFP rate also was at 62.8 so today's numbers merely matched the record low.  Still the sharp fall in the LFP for the 25-34 age group shows this is not just a demographic issue of an older population but more of people dropping out of the workforce in a still very poor economic environment.

[jaichind]

Comparison of LFP by age group versus Dec 2008


              Dec 08           Now         Diff
25-34      82.9              80.6         -2.3
35-44      84.1              82.3         -1.8
45-54      82.0              79.7         -2.3
55-64      65.3              64.1         -1.2
65+         17.1              17.9        +0.8


So other than the age group that had their retirement savings wiped out in 2008 and better health that is getting into the work force to make up for the lost assets, the rest of the population relative to its age group has a participation rate lower by 2% or so relative to Dec 2008.  This chart should debunk arguments that the lower LFP is mostly about changing demographics and a older population.  Yes that is a factor but even within the same age group we are much worse off today than Dec 2008.

Now unemployment rate in Dec 2008 was 7.3 versus 6.3 today.  I would argue that the lower unemployment rate is mostly a function of the fall in LFP.

[AggregateDemand]

Comparison of LFP by age group versus Jan 2009


              Dec 08           Now         Diff
25-34      82.9              80.6         -2.3
35-44      84.1              82.3         -1.8
45-54      82.0              79.7         -2.3
55-64      65.3              64.1         -1.2
65+         17.1              17.9        +0.8


So other than the age group that had their retirement savings wiped out in 2008 and better health that is getting into the work force to make up for the lost assets, the rest of the population relative to its age group has a participation rate lower by 2% or so relative to Dec 2008.  This chart should debunk arguments that the lower LFP is mostly about changing demographics and a older population.  Yes that is a factor but even within the same age group we are much worse off today than Dec 2008.

Now unemployment rate in Dec 2008 was 7.3 versus 6.3 today.  I would argue that the lower unemployment rate is mostly a function of the fall in LFP.

What? The only labor force participation increases are amongst the over-60 demographics--the people who use Social Security and Medicare as a competitive advantage against young people with no benefits? Labor participation rates amongst the under-24 demographic have been plummeting for 3 decades? I'm shocked. I never saw this labor bias coming!

Progressive liberals are genuinely the most inept bureaucracy ever assembled. They make conservatives look like Enlightened demi-gods.

[Beet]

So we are producing more goods with fewer workers. Ack, the end is nigh.

[AggregateDemand]

So we are producing more goods with fewer workers. Ack, the end is nigh.

No, child. The elders are ritualistically sacrificing the children, some of whom can't even vote to defend themselves, to make the economic indicators look better for old people. This has been going on for decades.

[Adam Griffin]

So we are producing more goods with fewer workers. Ack, the end is nigh.

No, child. The elders are ritualistically sacrificing the children, some of whom can't even vote to defend themselves, to make the economic indicators look better for old people. This has been going on for decades.

Or they're going to school.



A 10-point drop in 16-19 year-old workforce has occurred since 2001, and a roughly 10-point increase in college enrollment has occurred over the same time span.

[bullmoose88]

Is the age 16-19 workforce the same size as students attending college?  I.e. while the percentages are the same, are the actual magnitudes?

[AggregateDemand]

A 10-point drop in 16-19 year-old workforce has occurred since 2001, and a roughly 10-point increase in college enrollment has occurred over the same time span.

The 10-point drop is in the 20-24 demographic, and it could be explained away by college enrollment. The plummeting labor participation in the 16-19 demographic cannot be explained by college tuition rates. Those kids were discarded after the dotcom bubble burst.

More importantly, the graph makes it abundantly clear that labor participation has only increased during the last 20 years for the over-55 crowd. Why? Because the over-55 crowd use SS and MED as workfare entitlements.

Despite the robust labor growth amongst seniors, liberals are still hellbent on raising minimum wage and protecting the current failed welfare state. Workfare and expansive healthcare spending for grandma and grandpa. Hospice welfare for the able-bodied. You gotta love the liberal entitlement state.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks Obama.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The job market is definitely a "buyer's market" here, as it were.  New businesses opening all over and tons of postings with almost no one in the workforce center.  If you want work, you will have a plethora of options here in almost any field.

[jaichind]

Latest pew poll shows that the perception is still that jobs are hard to find. 

[dead0man]

So we are producing more goods with fewer workers. Ack, the end is nigh.

Hasn't that been true since, well, forever?


(perhaps you were being sarcastic?)

[King]

Latest pew poll shows that the perception is still that jobs are hard to find. 

Why should we care what people who have jobs and aren't looking have to say about job prospects?

[Beet]

So we are producing more goods with fewer workers. Ack, the end is nigh.

Hasn't that been true since, well, forever?


(perhaps you were being sarcastic?)

Yes

[sg0508]

Again.  Creating "working poor" jobs with "working poor" wages does little to nothing.  We're in the midst of downward, vicious cycle as the American worker becomes less and less employable by the passing minute. It all starts with the failing education system.

That being said, when the supply labor globally > demand for it, wages/salaries fall and when American tax laws/workers demand so much complexity and higher wages, there is little incentive to hire them.

[Person Man]

If people have given up on work entirely, how do they live? Do you think a lot of people are working under the table?