Hypothetical: Putin bombs Poland and/or Baltics. What happens?

[Blue3]

Complete hypothetical: Putin bombs Poland and/or the Baltic states.

How would the world respond? What would NATO do? What would China do? Who would support Russia?

[RogueBeaver]

Article 5, NATO military response.

[Blue3]

Article 5, NATO military response.

What kind of response?

And would Europeans and Americans really risk a potentially massive war, even if both sides promised to refrain from nuclear weapons?

Or has NATO been a bluff all along?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Article 5, NATO military response.

What kind of response?

And would Europeans and Americans really risk a potentially massive war, even if both sides promised to refrain from nuclear weapons?

Russia cannot win a conventional war with NATO.

[Blue3]

Even if that's true, would Europeans and Americans want to fight one at all?

[NewYorkExpress]

Nuclear War, between the European states that have Nuclear Weapons and Russia and China (Republicans and Congressional Liberals successfully block U.S Intervention)

Russia ends up occupying a European wasteland (as they have more nukes than Europe) With the exception of Britain, which they don't bother to occupy.

Putin considers preemptively bombing the U.S, but decides against it.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Why would he bomb Poland or the Baltics to begin with?

[ag]

Why would he bomb Poland or the Baltics to begin with?

An "uprising" of Russians in the Baltics starts. "Polite men" take control of Narva, Kohtla Jarve, Sillamae, Daugavpils, etc. Estonia and Latvia activate article 5, but only Poland responds. Polish troops help recover some of the Russian-controlled population centers in the east, there are a few hundred dead. Russian aviation bombs Polish positions, Polish aviation tries to fight back.

Is this plausible? At this point, I am afraid, a lot more likely than not.

[ag]

Article 5, NATO military response.

What kind of response?

And would Europeans and Americans really risk a potentially massive war, even if both sides promised to refrain from nuclear weapons?

Or has NATO been a bluff all along?

I am pretty sure that if nukes were not an issue, US and Europe would respond. If not for the nukes, repelling the Russians would not be such a big deal: Russian military, as I understand, at least as of today, is still mostly moribund, though some units have been brought into shape. Massive US bombardment would likely take care of much of air defense and of Russia's capacity for conventional retaliation against Europe.  Kaliningrad exclave would, probably, fall within the first week of the war - and I wouldn't bet against St. Petersburg either. Conventionally Russia is not a major threat. It is the nukes that are the problem.

[Citizen Hats]

An attack on a NATO ally sort of becomes a 1939 moment.  No one wants to do this, but there's a genuine and active threat to the European order, and it becomes crystal-clear that previous actions were not one-offs, and that something has to be done.  It's fair at this point to argue that Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, and Georgia were opportunistic  one-offs, just as many argued in 1938 that the Sudatenland, Austria, and the Rheinland had been at least semi-reasonable, but if the Russians start attacking allies, then you can't really say that anymore.  

I don't believe Putin is Hitler, but then again, in 1938 much of the world did not believe either that Hitler would be, well...Hitler

I suspect the war would begin with a with strong declaration from NATO powers that they would advance to previous NATO frontiers only, and would not be transgressing prior Russian borders

[Beet]

You guys are getting way ahead of yourselves. This is not going to happen; Putin is very aware of the costs of even going into eastern Ukraine; that's why he hasn't yet. Ukraine's military response in the past two days has made it less likely that he ever will. Putin's actions in the past couple of months have been a crime of opportunity; he sees a chance too easy to pass up: but raise the potential costs, even a little, and he's liable to back down.

[ag]

You guys are getting way ahead of yourselves. This is not going to happen; Putin is very aware of the costs of even going into eastern Ukraine; that's why he hasn't yet. Ukraine's military response in the past two days has made it less likely that he ever will. Putin's actions in the past couple of months have been a crime of opportunity; he sees a chance too easy to pass up: but raise the potential costs, even a little, and he's liable to back down.

That is the key: raise the costs now.

[Cory]

Nuclear War, between the European states that have Nuclear Weapons and Russia and China (Republicans and Congressional Liberals successfully block U.S Intervention)

Russia ends up occupying a European wasteland (as they have more nukes than Europe) With the exception of Britain, which they don't bother to occupy.

Putin considers preemptively bombing the U.S, but decides against it.

Nonsense.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Complete hypothetical: Putin bombs Poland and/or the Baltic states.

How would the world respond? What would NATO do? What would China do? Who would support Russia?

This would be full out war, kind of WWIII, but not the same scale as WWII, since Russia wouldn't have many allies. China would not ally with Russia.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nuclear War, between the European states that have Nuclear Weapons and Russia and China (Republicans and Congressional Liberals successfully block U.S Intervention)

Russia ends up occupying a European wasteland (as they have more nukes than Europe) With the exception of Britain, which they don't bother to occupy.

Putin considers preemptively bombing the U.S, but decides against it.

Please, they got 77 Senators and most of the House to vote for a completely unjustified war. This would obviously pass Congress.

[ag]

Nuclear War, between the European states that have Nuclear Weapons and Russia and China (Republicans and Congressional Liberals successfully block U.S Intervention)

Russia ends up occupying a European wasteland (as they have more nukes than Europe) With the exception of Britain, which they don't bother to occupy.

Putin considers preemptively bombing the U.S, but decides against it.

Please, they got 77 Senators and most of the House to vote for a completely unjustified war. This would obviously pass Congress.

Yep, I guess at that point 80+ senators would certainly vote for military response.

[Famous Mortimer]

Nuclear War, between the European states that have Nuclear Weapons and Russia and China (Republicans and Congressional Liberals successfully block U.S Intervention)

Russia ends up occupying a European wasteland (as they have more nukes than Europe) With the exception of Britain, which they don't bother to occupy.

Putin considers preemptively bombing the U.S, but decides against it.

Please, they got 77 Senators and most of the House to vote for a completely unjustified war. This would obviously pass Congress.

77 Senators voted for an unjustified war against a government no one anywhere doubted we could beat with minimal effort.

Not the same as with Russia.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Complete hypothetical: Putin bombs Poland and/or the Baltic states.

How would the world respond? What would NATO do? What would China do? Who would support Russia?

If Russia bombs Poland I assume the first thing which happens is a retaliatory strike along the lines of the "proportional response" doctrine... most likely taking out the Russian airbases which had been used to carry out the airstrikes against Poland.

Further actions by NATO would depend on how Russia reacts to that.

[dead0man]

Complete hypothetical: Putin bombs Poland and/or the Baltic states.

How would the world respond? What would NATO do? What would China do? Who would support Russia?

If Russia bombs Poland I assume the first thing which happens is a retaliatory strike along the lines of the "proportional response" doctrine... most likely taking out the Russian airbases which had been used to carry out the airstrikes against Poland.

Further actions by NATO would depend on how Russia reacts to that.

[Cory]

77 Senators voted for an unjustified war against a government no one anywhere doubted we could beat with minimal effort.

Not the same as with Russia.

But if Russia attacked a NATO member Obama wouldn't need Congress to authorize use of force, right?

[Silent Hunter]

77 Senators voted for an unjustified war against a government no one anywhere doubted we could beat with minimal effort.

Not the same as with Russia.

82 Senators voted for declaring war on Japan... which had already inflicted a defeat on the US at Pearl Harbor.

Obama probably wouldn't need a resolution, but he'd ask for one anyway. I doubt Putin would attack them - or even do Ukraine, the latter is in enough chaos as is.

[bullmoose88]

Turn and Burn, or US & Traditional NATO sit on their hands.

[Simfan34]

The real question is what becomes of Kaliningrad- does it become Koenigsburg or Krowliec?

[ag]

The real question is what becomes of Kaliningrad- does it become Koenigsburg or Krowliec?

Karoliavicius.

[Beezer]

Answer: EU imposes sanctions on 5 Russian businessmen, threatens to set up another summit if Russia decides to take further steps of aggression. Germans call on EU leaders to de-escalate.