PVI for counties

[ak482]

I was wondering which counties have been the closest to their state and even national results for the major party candidates.  I ask this since living in Franklin County (Columbus), OH, we tend to be somewhat predictive of the overall Ohio outcome (even though we seem to overall skew more Democratic, though nowhere near as much as Cuyahoga or Lucas counties).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

San Benito is California's bellwether.

[Adam Griffin]

We have so many counties and I've never bothered assessing all 159 to see which might be the best, but Lowndes stands out to me as a bellwether. Since 1984, the most Lowndes' has been off in terms of a Republican's % of the vote when compared to the statewide total is 3.5 points (1992). Hilariously enough, Lowndes was one of just thirteen counties to buck against Carter in 1980. If Election Night this November looks tight, I hope that Valdosta is reporting early.

1984 R+2.8
1988 R+2.7
1992 R+3.5
1996 R+1.8
2000 R+2.3
2004 R+2.0
2008 R+2.1
2012 R+1.2

[Del Tachi]

For Mississippi it seems like Yazoo County and Oktibbeha County have a knack for siding with the winner in both national and statewide elections.

As far as matching Mississippi's national vote, I think that Leake County seems to get it about right every time.

[Smash255]

I was wondering which counties have been the closest to their state and even national results for the major party candidates.  I ask this since living in Franklin County (Columbus), OH, we tend to be somewhat predictive of the overall Ohio outcome (even though we seem to overall skew more Democratic, though nowhere near as much as Cuyahoga or Lucas counties).

I think Hamilton is moving closer to that for Ohio (as far as the larger counties are concerned anyway), Columbus has moved pretty hard towards the Democrats (Franklin was about 20 points more Democratic than the state as a whole, 19 points more Democratic than the nation)

[DS0816]

In Colorado, Larimer County (Fort Collins), Arapahoe County (Littleton), and Jefferson County (Golden) closely mirror statewide outcomes.

In Nevada, Washoe County (Reno) has done it three elections in a row (2004, 2008, 2012) for carriage of the state.

[CountyTy90]

In Illinois, I think my home county of LaSalle has in the past mirrored the rest of the state, however, it's leaning Republican lately. LaSalle County is a "typical" American county (if there was one): "large" cities, small villages, lakes, rivers, forests, lots of farmland, factories, community college, etc.

It's hard in Illinois because the vast majority of counties vote Republican, however, the state is a Democratic stronghold because of Cook County.

Take the 2010 Gubernatorial and Senate races for example, the closest county was St. Clair (even though Giannoulias won St. Clair and lost statewide).

In 2012, the closest county was Knox County, which is home to Knox College, and not much else. Outside of Galesburg, it's very rural, very agricultural, and surprisingly has a fairly large Amish population.

[The Free North]

Not really sure about Connecticut. I would guess some of the eastern counties though. Fairfield/Litchfield lean R the most, New Haven and Hartford lean D the most. If a Republican could win the west and swing the east they would probably win.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I literally just started work on an Excel spreadsheet on this topic.  I'd be interested in this subject, too.

[Miles]

Guesses for my states:

NC- Hyyde, Lenoir, Watauga
LA- Concordia

[CountyTy90]

San Benito is California's bellwether.

Wouldn't you also say San Joaquin?

I recently did a study on California demographics from 1980 to 2010 (fascinating to say the least) and San Joaquin County has mirrored California in each census in terms of racial make-up.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

San Benito is California's bellwether.

Wouldn't you also say San Joaquin?

I recently did a study on California demographics from 1980 to 2010 (fascinating to say the least) and San Joaquin County has mirrored California in each census in terms of racial make-up.

It's definitely more Republican than the state as a whole. Bush won it by 7 points in 2004.
San Benito is definitely more Hispanic but also more white than the state average. Those sort of cancel out. It's about R+1 in the recent elections.

[ElectionsGuy]

There is quite a few you can find for Wisconsin, but overall I think Door County is the best bellwether.

[Flake]

Hillsborough seems like a good bellwether.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Remember Cinyc's map thread from 2010?

Some of what I recall
PA - Bucks , Northampton, Monroe, and Luzerne
NY - Westchester
OH - Ottawa and Wood, to some extent Hamilton and Lake.
NV - Washoe
AZ - Maricopa
MA - Middlesex

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I was wondering which counties have been the closest to their state and even national results for the major party candidates.  I ask this since living in Franklin County (Columbus), OH, we tend to be somewhat predictive of the overall Ohio outcome (even though we seem to overall skew more Democratic, though nowhere near as much as Cuyahoga or Lucas counties).

Columbus metro is the swing region, but that includes Delaware, Licking, and Madison counties as well as a few others I think that balance out Franklin's 20% Dem margin. As Columbus lurches more and a more Dem, that too will ebb though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

found it: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=126829.0

Unfortunately, some of the maps have been removed from their host site.

It also doesn't incorporate 2012 data since it was made to help follow the 2010 election results.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Here in NJ I know Atlantic County is a solid bellwether.