EP elections 2014 - Predictions Thread

[Tender Branson]

With just 2 weeks and 3 days left until voting starts in the UK and the Netherlands, what do you think will happen ?

Which party will win in each of the 28 countries ? What will be the biggest surprises and biggest flops ? What about turnout ? And seat predictions ?

[Zanas]

It's way too early for that. BUT, bold prediction : turnout will be abysmal, and progressive liberals will be all over TV deploring it while enforcing drastic austerity measures on the people that didn't turn out.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Oh f'ck it, I'll do one of these for Ireland - MoE: 100%

Dublin: 1 Fine Gael, 1 Sinn Fein, 1 Independent (Nessa Childers)

In practice, the last seat could be anyone, but as Childers is the only candidate I can consider voting for unironically and polls - those require massive salt for sure - indicate she's doing much better than I expected then why not? Independents are likely to do very well. Sinn Fein can't be guaranteed for a seat either)

South: 2 Fine Gael 1 Sinn Fein 1 Fianna Fail

This looks very likely, the only one in doubt is the last Fine Gael seat and if they do win two, who will it be: Clune or Harris? The former currently looks the most likely which means no by-election in Wicklow . The only possible outside challenger is the Independent Diarmuid O'Flynn, journalist and anti-austerity activist but he looks a bit too far behind at this stage.

Midland-North West: 1 Fine Gael 1 Sinn Fein 2 Independents (Flanagan and Harkin)

Ok... this is something of a ballsy prediction with Fianna Fail actually losing a seat but this one is the hardest to call. It's basically 4 from 5 between FG, SF, FF and the two independents and I think any of them could fall out. The two independents have the disadvantage of being from the same area of the country (Roscommon and Sligo respectively) but both have high profile and Harkin has been an MEP for a decade now. Harkin, in particular, is likely to attract the soft-left vote which is deserting Labour en masse while Flanagan is more likely to attract more general protest voters. Despite running an unknown, this seat contains Sinn Fein's strongest areas and they should be in and despite the government being very unpopular, I really don't think they are doing so badly as to go seatless in a constituency like this. So it's between Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher of Fianna Fail and Luke 'Ming' Flanagan for the last seat. My money is on Ming but this is liable to be totally wrong.

[EPG]

EPP-S&D coalition with Schulz/Juncker in charge of the Commission and Council respectively. Liberals and Greens fall back. The far-left to do better than 2009 but worse than they think they will. The masses will be blamed once again for their false consciousness in not realising that high taxes will make them all better off.

[EPG]

I am not sure how this Childers speculation works. The most credible poll puts her at 10%, with five candidates ahead of her, and possibly six after the exclusion of either Bríd Smith (PBPA) or Paul Murphy (SP) to the benefit of the other. On that poll, she needs to jump from 6th to 3rd to get to 20% (Joe Higgins's winning total in 2009), which means being significantly more transfer-attractive than everyone in the pack at every count. I don't think it is out of the question that she gets eliminated before the non-republican far-left. Whereas Hayes may not be as attractive to transfers, he also needs a lot less of them in that poll.

[Tender Branson]

I tried a map (winning party in terms of % in each country):



Grey = Too close to call (within 3%, mixed polls)
Red = PES
Blue = EPP
Wine Red = Left
Green = Greens
Orange = MELD/EFD
Purple = Non-Inscrits

Any errors ?

[MaxQue]

Belgium, as N-VA was expelled from the Green group, if I remember well.

[Tender Branson]

Belgium, as N-VA was expelled from the Green group, if I remember well.

They are still listed with the Greens-EFA though:

http://www.greens-efa.eu/members/42-all-members/belgium-20.html

[Zanas]

They were not expelled from this term's group, just barred from joining next term's Green group.

[Tender Branson]

They were not expelled from this term's group, just barred from joining next term's Green group.

Ah, thx. It seems I have missed that (because I'm not too familiar with politics in Belgium).

What is the reason that they are not allowed anymore to join the next Green caucus ?

[MaxQue]

They were not expelled from this term's group, just barred from joining next term's Green group.

Ah, thx. It seems I have missed that (because I'm not too familiar with politics in Belgium).

What is the reason that they are not allowed anymore to join the next Green caucus ?

They are right-wing and increasingly xenophobic.

[Zanas]

Reasons here on this board.

I think I also read some official thing by the Green group or by Ecolo somewhere, I'll dig.

[EPG]

I think the average guess of people on this forum would be about as valuable as the typical opinion poll in Ireland's election.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

East Midlands

Labour 2 (+1)
UKIP 2 (+1)
Tory 1 (-1)
Lib Dem  0 (-1)


East of England

UKIP 3 (+1)
Tory 2 (-1)
Labour 2 (+1)
Lib Dem 0 (-1)

London

Labour 3 (+1)
Tory 2 (-1)
UKIP 1
Green 1
Lib Dem 1

North East England

Labour 2 (+1)
UKIP 1 (+1)
Tory 0 (-1)
Lib Dem (-1)

North West England

Labour 4 (+2)
UKIP 3 (+2)
Tory 1 (-2)
LD (-1)
BNP (-1)

South East England

UKIP 4 (+2)
Tory 3 (-1)
Labour 1
Green 1
LD 1 (-1)

South West England

UKIP 2
Tory 2 (-1)
Labour 1 (+1)
LD 1

West Midlands (has gained extra seat this year!)

UKIP 3 (+1)
Labour 3 (+2)
Tory 1 (-1)
LD (-1)

Yorkshire and the Humber

3 Labour (+2)
2 UKIP (+1)
1 Tory (-1)
0 Lib Dem (-1)
0 BNP (-1)

Wales

3 Labour (+2)
1 UKIP
0 Tory (-1)
0 Plaid (-1)

Scotland
3 SNP (+1)
2 Labour
1 Tory
0 LD (-1)

Northern Ireland

1 Sinn Fein
1 DUP
1 SDLP (+1)
0 UUP (-1)

Overall:

Labour 26 (+13)
UKIP 22 (+9)
Tory 14 (-11)
Lib Dem 3 (-8)
SNP 3 (+1)
Green 2
Sinn Fein 1
DUP 1
SDLP 1 (+1)
UUP (-1)
BNP (-2)
Plaid (-1)


Labour regain a plurality, but right-wing still a majority.

Predictions are, of course, pulled from arse.

[mileslunn]

My prediction is the EPP-ED will hold its ground, the Liberals will gain in countries where they are more pro free enterprise, but the left leaning Liberals won't, and the National Conservatives and other right wing groupings will gain big time.  The Greens will hold ground and possibly gain, but the lost amongst the PES will mean the left is weaker in the EU parliament.  If one trend is clear, Europe is swinging rightwards and I believe this election will confirm this.

[MaxQue]

I really wonder where PES is expected to lose seats. Then again, him thinking than Right will be reelected in Sweden and him using "pro free entreprise" is showing that it's more ideology than knowledge.

[MaxQue]

To detail, PS is doing terrible, but had very bad results in 2009 too, 2009 was a disaster for Labour too, they can only improve. SPD isn't polling well, but wasn't either in 2009. PSOE is having roughly the same results than last time and PD is going well in Italia.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

the Liberals will gain in countries where they are more pro free enterprise, but the left leaning Liberals won't

Um, no. The poster boys for right-wing liberals the German FDP will be reduced to a microparty, as will the UK "Orange Booker" Lib Dems. In the Netherlands the pro-business liberals are desperately unpopular, while the left-wing liberals D66 are on the ascent. There is a significant chance that the Italian right-wing liberals won't even be in parliament and the right-wing liberals in Sweden are fairly unpopular at the moment. The only significant bright side at present for right-wing liberals is NEOS in Austria...

[mileslunn]

the Liberals will gain in countries where they are more pro free enterprise, but the left leaning Liberals won't

Um, no. The poster boys for right-wing liberals the German FDP will be reduced to a microparty, as will the UK "Orange Booker" Lib Dems. In the Netherlands the pro-business liberals are desperately unpopular, while the left-wing liberals D66 are on the ascent. There is a significant chance that the Italian right-wing liberals won't even be in parliament and the right-wing liberals in Sweden are fairly unpopular at the moment. The only significant bright side at present for right-wing liberals is NEOS in Austria...

My following of European politics has generally shown the right has on average being going up each election round and the left down.  Now much of the gain on the right are right wing populist parties like PVV, National Front, FPO (although they may have peaked and be declining), UKIP, AfD, True Finns, Golden Dawn etc.  It seems those parties tend to do a better job of picking up former left wing supporters while the centre-right are able to hold their ground.  Generally hard right parties tend to do best when the economy is struggling thus blame the EU, blame immigrants, while are weaker when the economy is doing well.

[Velasco]

PSOE is having roughly the same results than last time and PD is going well in Italia.

No.PSOE won't have the same results as in 2009. It's going to lose between 8% and 10% and between 3 and 6 seats, roughly.

My (dumb) prediction for Spain right now: PP 20, PSOE 17, IU+allies 6, UPyD 4, CiU+PNV 2/3, ERC 1/2, EH Bildu+BNG 1, Podemos 1, Cs 0/1, European Spring 0/1.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

the Liberals will gain in countries where they are more pro free enterprise, but the left leaning Liberals won't

Um, no. The poster boys for right-wing liberals the German FDP will be reduced to a microparty, as will the UK "Orange Booker" Lib Dems. In the Netherlands the pro-business liberals are desperately unpopular, while the left-wing liberals D66 are on the ascent. There is a significant chance that the Italian right-wing liberals won't even be in parliament and the right-wing liberals in Sweden are fairly unpopular at the moment. The only significant bright side at present for right-wing liberals is NEOS in Austria...

My following of European politics has generally shown the right has on average being going up each election round and the left down.  Now much of the gain on the right are right wing populist parties like PVV, National Front, FPO (although they may have peaked and be declining), UKIP, AfD, True Finns, Golden Dawn etc.  It seems those parties tend to do a better job of picking up former left wing supporters while the centre-right are able to hold their ground.  Generally hard right parties tend to do best when the economy is struggling thus blame the EU, blame immigrants, while are weaker when the economy is doing well.

I understand what you're saying, but you're relying way too heavily on fancy guesswork and extrapolation based on previous elections, all the while ignoring national trends. If PES manage to go down in seats, I'll eat my shoes. The 2009 elections were awful for pretty much every centre-left party in the continent. So bad that even Hollande's PS probably will stay the same. Apart from PASOK's coming obliteration in Greece, and a smattering of Labour parties in unpopular coalitions; not many Labour parties even have room to head backwards. It is the centre-right that are easy pickings now - especially in Sweden, Portugal, Italy, the UK and even (weirdly considering circumstances) France.
 
In the UK and Germany, UKIP and AfD mainly draw wounds from the Tories and CDU respectively; the True Finns steal votes from every single Finnish party (see: last election) while GD voters mainly steal from previous populist right groups like LAOS. The left are less vulnerable at this moment in time than the right.

And you can't deny that, much to establishment sorrow, pro-EU business liberals (think Rutte or Clegg or Bayrou or Monti or Westerwelle) may as well be terminal.

[Cassius]

A rough and in no way scientific prediction of the popular vote shares in the UK.

Labour: 30%
UKIP: 26%
Conservative: 22%
Liberal-Democrat: 9%
Green: 8%
Rabble: 5%

[EPG]

And you can't deny that, much to establishment sorrow, pro-EU business liberals (think Rutte or Clegg or Bayrou or Monti or Westerwelle) may as well be terminal.

Most of them have the awkward problem of either being in government or having been in government last year (though Monti's hinterland was more Christian-democratic than liberal, he set up his own Christian-centrist party from zero, and he probably just did it to stop Berlusconi). Some people genuinely believed around 2009 that the European centre-left was going to die too, some people believed the US Republicans were dying in 2009. Nope, they had just been in government, which isn't good for your popularity these days since the ability to dispense free money to voters is limited.

It's important to remember that this is a second-order election which voters mostly use to express their views on more important domestic politics.

"we all know what to do, we just don't know how to get re-elected after we've done it." - A wise Luxembourger

[SPQR]

Last time round,M5S overperformed polls by 5% because of undecideds deciding in the last 3 days.

I'll wait till the last to make any prediction.

[Cranberry]

Since Tender didn't post any Austria predictions, here is my (most likely completely dumb) prediction:

Austria - 18 MEP's

ÖVP - 25% - 5
SPÖ - 24% - 5
FPÖ - 21% - 4
NEOS - 13% - 2
Grüne - 12% - 2
REKOS - 2%
Europa anders - 2%
BZÖ - 1%
EU-STOP > 1%