EP elections 2014 - Predictions Thread

[The Lord Marbury]

My prediction for Sweden's 20 seats.

Social Democrats - 30,2% (+5,8) - 7 (+1)
Moderate Party - 20,7% (+1,9) - 5 (+1)
Green Party - 14,2% (+3,2) - 3 (+1)
Liberal People's Party - 9,0% (-4,6) - 2 (-1)
Left Party - 6,0% (+0,3) - 1 (nc)
Sweden Democrats - 4,5% (+1,2) - 1 (+1)
Feminist Initiative - 4,4% (+2,2) - 1 (+1)
Centre - 3,6% (-1,9) - 0 (-1)
Christian Democrats - 3,5% (-1,2) - 0 (-1)
Pirate - 3,0% (-4,3) - 0 (-2)
others - 0,9

[mileslunn]

I will admit I have not idea how Eastern Europe will vote although in general having been under the Communist regime I find parties on the left tend to do less well there although they do win sometimes still.  Here is my reasoning why in Western Europe they won't do better starting from North to South.

Sweden: In 2009, the Red-Green coalition was leading in the polls albeit a slightly smaller margin so the PES may make gains but will be small.  The Alliance came back mainly during 2010 which is why they won.

Finland: National Rally, Centre Party, and Social Democratic Party seem to consistently get around 20% of the vote so I suspect it will be close that as usual.

Denmark: PES won last time around as they were in opposition but leading in the polls.  They are now in power and doing quite poorly in the polls.

Germany: FDP will decline but much of those gains will go the CDU/CSU who are even more popular (Angela Merkel had her best showing of the three elections in 2013) and also the rise of the AfD.  The only question mark is the left wing parties have done well in state elections as it seems whichever party wins at one level, it often goes the other way at the lower levels although past history shows federal rather than state elections are better indicators.

Netherlands: CDA was the main centre-right party in 2009 so even with the VVD's problems now I suspect they will do just as well as 2009, while the PVV should be strong.  Much of the gains have been the more centrist D66 as opposed the centre-left Labour Party or more left wing Socialist Party and Green Left

Luxembourg: LSAP numbers have been pretty consistent.  The CSV fell slightly but the Democratic Party was the main beneficiary

Belgium: As usual a real mess although the NVA who generally on the right should come in first.

UK: Labour Party will do better than 2009, but most will come at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.  The Conservatives are starting to recover in the polls as the economy recovers while UKIP who are even further right is polling even higher than 2009

Ireland: Fianna Fail will do worse but Fine Gael who are centre-right should replace them while Labour Party and Sinn Fein should gain slightly but I doubt it will make a big difference.

France: Socialist Party under Hollande is wildly unpopular so I expect them do worse while National Front is polling at record highs so wouldn't be surprised if they get over 20%.

Austria: OVP and SPO pretty close like last time around so no change while FPO has declined slightly but you have NEOS who are more centrist as well as if they run candidates Team Stronach.  The BZO won't win anything but they were largely a Jorg Haider party so once he died that was the end of them.

Portugal: The Socialist Party and others on the left may gain a bit, but keep in mind they won in the fall of 2009 so in many ways they are simply recovering to levels they were at that point.

Spain: The Popular Party has fallen but the PSOE hasn't been able to gain so probably similar results with maybe the United Left or the centrist Convergence and Democracy doing a bit better.

Italy: The right should do worse, but the left even if they win may do so as well since you have the Five Star Movement which is tough to pinpoint on the ideological spectrum and is doing fairly well although not sure if they are running in European elections.

Greece: New Democracy has done a better job of holding their support while PASOK has crashed and much has gone to SYRIZA.  Also the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn is doing quite well so should gain.

[EPG]

Ireland: Fianna Fail will do worse but Fine Gael who are centre-right should replace them while Labour Party and Sinn Fein should gain slightly but I doubt it will make a big difference.

You could look at the predictions made above about Ireland, and the other countries, by people with local knowledge. As you will see there, the Labour Party will lose two, probably three, seats, rather than gaining slightly, while Sinn Féin will pick them up by gaining magnificently.

[Tender Branson]

Austria: OVP and SPO pretty close like last time around so no change while FPO has declined slightly but you have NEOS who are more centrist as well as if they run candidates Team Stronach.  The BZO won't win anything but they were largely a Jorg Haider party so once he died that was the end of them.

* ÖVP and SPÖ were not close last time around: The ÖVP won with 30%, the SPÖ only got 24%.

* The FPÖ has not declined: The FPÖ got 13% in 2009, but is polling 19-21% right now.

* Team Stronach ? Not running in this election.

[SPQR]

@mileslunn
The Five Star Movement is indeed running,even though they have not declared which European group they'll join once in the EP. Nonetheless,polls give them a solid 2nd place behind PD, at 25%.

[Zanas]

France: Socialist Party under Hollande is wildly unpopular so I expect them do worse while National Front is polling at record highs so wouldn't be surprised if they get over 20%.

It so happens that EP 2009 was nearly the lowest low the PS could possibly fall to, with 16.5%, and in current polls, and despite Hollande's wild unpopularity, PS do top that with 17-19%. I am however under the opinion that in the end, PS' score will look more like 14-15%, but it can't be ruled out that PS actually improves on 2009 as of yet.

Plus stating that FN could quite well score above 20% in the EP election this year is like stating that the sky is blue and that fire burns.

You should consider lurking a bit more round here before making those.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

My prediction for Sweden's 20 seats.

Social Democrats - 30,2% (+5,8) - 7 (+1)
Moderate Party - 20,7% (+1,9) - 5 (+1)
Green Party - 14,2% (+3,2) - 3 (+1)
Liberal People's Party - 9,0% (-4,6) - 2 (-1)
Left Party - 6,0% (+0,3) - 1 (nc)
Sweden Democrats - 4,5% (+1,2) - 1 (+1)
Feminist Initiative - 4,4% (+2,2) - 1 (+1)
Centre - 3,6% (-1,9) - 0 (-1)
Christian Democrats - 3,5% (-1,2) - 0 (-1)
Pirate - 3,0% (-4,3) - 0 (-2)
others - 0,9

And here is mine:

Social Democrats - 26,8% (+2,4) - 6 (+/-)
Moderate Party - 19,3% (+0,5) - 4 (+/-)
Green Party - 15,3% (+4,3) - 3 (+1)
Liberal People's Party - 8,7% (-4,9) - 2 (-1)
Left Party - 7,0% (+1,3) - 2 (+1)
Sweden Democrats - 6,6% (+3,3) - 1 (+1)
Centre Party - 4,6% (-0,9) - 1 (+/-)
Feminist Initiative - 4,3% (+2,1) - 1 (+1)
Christian Democrats - 3,6% (-1,1) - 0 (-1)
Pirate Party - 2,5% (-4,6) - 0 (-2)
June List - 0,9% (-2,7) - 0 (+/-)
others - 0,4

[Tender Branson]

My early prediction for AUT:

24.1% ÖVP (-5.9%)
23.6% SPÖ (-0.1%)
19.6% FPÖ (+6.9%)
12.3% NEOS (+12.3%)
12.1% Greens (+2.2%)
  3.8% EA (+3.8%)
  1.6% REKOS (+1.6%)
  1.5% EU-STOP (+1.5%)
  1.4% BZÖ (-3.2%)

Turnout: 44.3% (-1.7%)

...

With a result like this, Austria would be:

* 48.2% Right (ÖVP, FPÖ, REKOS, EU-STOP, BZÖ)
* 39.5% Left (SPÖ, Greens, EA)
* 12.3% Center (NEOS)

...

ÖVP and SPÖ win 5 seats, FPÖ 4, NEOS and Greens 2 seats each.

[republicanbayer]

I predict 5-8 new German parties in the EP. AfD, Free Voters, ÖDP, NPD, Pirate Party should be safe, Republicans, Family Party, Animal Protection Party and maybe even a Pro NRW could win one seat as well.

[Tender Branson]

My early Germany prediction:

36.1% CDU/CSU
25.9% SPD
10.2% Greens
  7.7% Left
  7.1% AfD
  3.3% FDP
  2.2% Pirates
  7.5% Others

Turnout: 44%

[republicanbayer]

The Bayernpartei 0,1% in the recent federal election, but you need at around 0,6% to get a seat in the EP, so it's highly unlikely.

[republicanbayer]

Next elections Bavaria shall be independent and get its own 26 MEPs.

The BR conducted a poll for the EP election in bavaria:
CSU 47%
SPD 20%
Greens 12%
FDP 4%
Left 3%
Free Voters 3%
AfD 6%
Others 6%

[Tender Branson]

Here's my prediction map (winning party in each country in % terms, not seats):



Some of them are just a wild guess.

Germany-blue: EPP
France-blue: EAF
UK-blue: EFD
Poland-blue: ECR
Red: PES
Wine-Red: Left
Yellow: ALDE
Orange: Non-Inscrits
Green: Nothing, unless you count the N-VA as "Green"

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Here's my prediction map (winning party in each country in % terms, not seats):



Some of them are just a wild guess.

Germany-blue: EPP
France-blue: EAF
UK-blue: EFD
Poland-blue: ECR
Red: PES
Wine-Red: Left
Yellow: ALDE
Orange: Non-Inscrits
Green: Nothing, unless you count the N-VA as "Green"

That looks quiet right. But I would give Belgium a ECR blue and Czechia a ALDE yellow, as N-VA and even more ANO affiliation is pretty save. With Greece I am not so sure, still thinking it is open between ND and Tsipras. Not that sure with UK anymore either, as Frarage is under heavy fire at the moment (The imperium strikes back ).

[Cassius]

I thought the PVV were leading the VVD in the Netherlands polls? Anyway, this 'heavy fire' that Farage is under won't hurt him one little bit - in fact, it might actually shore up UKIP support a little, since the big bad media elites (apart from the Mail, obviously) seem intent on clobbering him in the interests of furthering the sham LibLabCon cartel... obviously. However, I still think Labour will top the polls come election day.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Here's my prediction map (winning party in each country in % terms, not seats):



Some of them are just a wild guess.

Germany-blue: EPP
France-blue: EAF
UK-blue: EFD
Poland-blue: ECR
Red: PES
Wine-Red: Left
Yellow: ALDE
Orange: Non-Inscrits
Green: Nothing, unless you count the N-VA as "Green"

That looks quiet right. But I would give Belgium a ECR blue and Czechia a ALDE yellow, as N-VA and even more ANO affiliation is pretty save. With Greece I am not so sure, still thinking it is open between ND and Tsipras. Not that sure with UK anymore either, as Frarage is under heavy fire at the moment (The imperium strikes back ).

SYRIZA will win easily in Greece.  Today in the 1st round of the municipal and periphery elections the SYRIZA candidates in the Attica periphery and in Athens did much better than what was expected.  Dourou who is running for Attica governor looks like she will be 7-8% points ahead of the incumbent governor while most polls had her fighting for second place.  Also the SYRIZA candidate for mayor of Athens who is a total unknown looks like he will win the 1st round which was also totally unexpected.  ND voters are mostly older and from rural areas and I expect the turnout among those groups will be lower next week for a number of reasons which will benefit SYRIZA immensely.

[Tender Branson]

I thought the PVV were leading the VVD in the Netherlands polls? Anyway, this 'heavy fire' that Farage is under won't hurt him one little bit - in fact, it might actually shore up UKIP support a little, since the big bad media elites (apart from the Mail, obviously) seem intent on clobbering him in the interests of furthering the sham LibLabCon cartel... obviously. However, I still think Labour will top the polls come election day.

I predict a small D66 (which is in ALDE) win.

Of course, everything's possible in the Netherlands because the polls show pretty much a tie ...

[EPG]

The overall party % in the Netherlands will go to ALDE, for sure.

In Ireland, the overall % will be EPP, but Harkin's performance could give the overall % to ALDE (maybe. not very likely though).

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm not making a call on percentages but the order in the UK will go UKIP, Labour, Tory, Green, LibDem.

[sirius3100]

My predictions for the seats in Germany and Austria.

Austria:
SPÖ 5
ÖVP 4
FPÖ 4
NEOS 3
Green 2

Germany:
CDU/CSU 36
SPD 24
Green 10
Left 8
AFD 8
FDP 3
Pirates 2
NPD 1
Free Voters 1
Family 1
Animal Protection 1
ödp 1

[SPQR]

My predictions for Italy

PD 33,4%
M5S 26,5%
Forza Italia 18,6%
NCD+UDC 5,3%
Lega Nord 5,1%  

BELOW 4% THRESHOLD  
Fratelli d'Italia 3,7%  
Lista Tsipras 3,4%  
Scelta Europea 2,6%  
Italia dei Valori 0,8%  
Verdi 0,5%
Others 0,3%

[YL]

I'm not making a call on percentages but the order in the UK will go UKIP, Labour, Tory, Green, LibDem.

I'm becoming a little bit more optimistic that Labour will pip the purple peril for first.  The polls are all over the place, but recently more of them have shown a small Labour lead, and I think it's quite likely that UKIP will lose a percentage point or two of their more gullible voters to "An Independence From Europe".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am hoping for a full blown repeat of the famous Literal Democrat fiasco.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I am hoping for a full blown repeat of the famous Literal Democrat fiasco.

Which one? I don't think anything - even losing every MEP and coming fifth - can be as humiliating as 2011 was.

[Cassius]

I am hoping for a full blown repeat of the famous Literal Democrat fiasco.

Which one? I don't think anything - even losing every MEP and coming fifth - can be as humiliating as 2011 was.

I think he's referring to the Mike Natrass spoiler party and UKIP.