EP elections 2014 - Predictions Thread

[You kip if you want to...]

I am hoping for a full blown repeat of the famous Literal Democrat fiasco.

Which one? I don't think anything - even losing every MEP and coming fifth - can be as humiliating as 2011 was.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devon_and_East_Plymouth_%28European_Parliament_constituency%29#Results

But yeah, on paper, the Libs losing everything would be a worse result the 2011, but the focus isn't on them this year in the way it was in 2011.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh haha, that is amazing

[Diouf]

Denmark prediction

DF 26.6 % 3 seats
Liberals 22.5 % 3
Social Democrats 20.7 % 3
People's Movement against the EU 8.1 % 1
SF 7.1% 1
Conservatives 6.4 % 1
Social Liberals 6.2 % 1
Liberal Alliance 2.4 % 0

The first 11 seats are quite easy to distribute; 4 seats for the Soc Dem-SF-Soc Lib pact, 3 seats for the Liberal-Conservative pact, 3 seats for DF, and 1 seat for the People's Movement against the EU. The big question is which of the three big actors that will miss out one of the last two seats. The Lib-Con pact is arguably a slight favourite to gain one of those seats which will in all likelihood mean that the Conservatives regain their seat in the EP. With the percentages predicted above, the centre-left pact just nicks the last seat ahead of DF, which will mean that the Social Liberals will enter the EP. However, DF could just as well get their fourth seat as the front runner Morten Messerschmidt looks set to break the record for most personal votes ever. The current record is 407 966 and set by former PM Poul Nyrup Rasmussen in the 2004 EP elections.

Unified patent court referendum
61.8 % yes
38.2 % no

I'm fairly confident that it will be a yes, but the polls have shown a narrowing of the gap which I think will continue until election day.

[Tender Branson]

My UK prediction:

27% UKIP
26% Labour
23% Tories
  9% LibDems
  7% Greens
  4% SNP
  2% BNP
  2% Others

Turnout: 35%

[EPG]

Dublin, Ireland
Boylan (SF / GUE)
Hayes (FG / EPP)
and a third seat that is a five-way toss-up between Fitzpatrick, Childers, Ryan, Costello and Smith, so you can all make fun of me afterwards for choosing:
Fitzpatrick (FF / ALDE)

South, Ireland
Crowley (FF / ALDE)
Ní Riada (SF / GUE)
Kelly (FG / EPP)
Clune (FG / EPP)

Midlands-North-West, Ireland
McGuinness (FG / EPP)
Carthy (SF / GUE)
Gallagher (FF / ALDE)
Harkin (Ind / ALDE)

Northern Ireland
Anderson (SF / GUE)
Dodds (DUP / NI)
Nicholson (UUP / ECR)

FG 4 (nc)
SF 4 (+3)
FF 3 (nc)
Harkin 1 (nc)
DUP 1 (nc)
UUP 1 (nc)

I am very confident of all but the last seat in all constituencies, except Midlands-North-West, in which I am only confident of the first two seats.

[Zanas]

Time for final UK prediction :

UKIP 28%
Lab 25%
Con 20%
LibDem 7%
Green 7%

Too complicated for me to make a seats prediction.

[Zanas]

And a final Dutch one too !

D66 16% - 5 seats
PVV 14.5% - 4 seats
VVD 13.5% - 4 seats
CDA 13% - 4 seats
SP 11% - 3 seats
PvdA 10% - 3 seats
CU-SGP 8% - 2 seats
GL 5% - 1 seat
50+ 3%

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

UK prediction, in terms of vote share from greatest to smallest. I'll add percentages, although they might not be very accurate, as I haven't been following the race that closely:

UKIP - 28%
Labour - 27%
Tories - 22%
Lib Dems - 8%
Greens - 7%
SNP - 3%
Plaid Cymru - 2%
BNP - 1%
Others - 2%

[Tender Branson]

My Netherlands prediction:

17% D66
15% PVV
13% SP
12% VVD
11% CDA
10% PvdA
  9% CU/SGP
  6% GroenLinks
  3% 50+
  1% PvdD
  3% Others

Turnout: 36%

[Velasco]

Final prediction for Spain.

PP 32% 19 seats (EPP)

PSOE 30% 18 seats (S&D)

IU-ICV 10.5% 6 seats (5 GUE-NGL, 1 Greens-EFA)

UPyD 6.5% 3 seats (NI/ ALDE?)

CiU+PNV+CC 5% 3 seats (2 ALDE, 1 EPP)

ERC 3.5% 2 seats (Greens-EFA)

PODEMOS 2% 1 seat (GUE-NGL)

Ciutadans (Citizen Movement) 2% 1 seat (NI/ ALDE?)

EHBildu+BNG 2% 1 seat (Greens-EFA?, GUE-NGL?)

[Niemeyerite]

There's a prediction I made on January, 14th...

My prediction for the EU elections would be (if things develop as I expect them to):

PSOE 30%
PP 28%
IU 9%
UPyD 6%
MC 4%
PIP Podemos 4%
CiUPNVetc 4%
ERCBilduetc 4%
AP Vox 4%
Equoetc 2%
PxL 1%
España en marcha 1%
Others 3%

I'd just take 2.5 points from Vox to PP, 1 point from MC and  to IU and other little changes. I overestimated PxL and España en Marcha, too. My new prediction (surprisingly similar to the one I made 5 months ago)...

PP 31.5%
PSOE 31%
IU 10%
UPyD 6%
CEU 4.5%
ERC 4%
Podemos 3%
MC 3%
PEU 2%
Bildu+BNG 1.5%
Vox 1.5%
PxL, LEM, RED... (Others) 2%

I think Vox could get aprox. 1.8% and win a seat.

[Lasitten]

Prediction for Finland

KOK (EPP) 4 seats
KESK (ALDE) 3 seats
SDP (S&D) 2 seats
PS (EFD) 1 seat
VIHR (GREENS/EFA) 1 seat
VAS (GUE/NGL) 1 seat
SFP (ALDE) 1 seat

Only one seat for the right-wing populist True Finns because I think their voters aren't going to really vote and I am currently working for the Left Alliance in the Norhern Karelia district and even that this is one of their strongholds the people aren't so exicided about the True Finns and I think that the overall turnout is going to be catastrophically low in here. That is also going to hurt  the social democrats who are the biggest party in this district.

On the other hand SFP has a strong voter base in Åland and usually they aren't included in the polls so I think they are going to get a good load of votes from there.

[Supersonic]

For the UK, no clue about the other EU nations I'm afraid:

UKIP - 28%
Labour - 27%
Conservatives - 21%
Lib Dems - 8%
Greens - 8%

Pretty similar to Anton's prediction. It's a turnout game for the top spot.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Since predicting Polish elections is really tricky business, I'll be no fun and limit myself to predicting an order:

Above 5% thereshold:

PiS (they are finally going to win an election, because of PO fatigue, but not by a huge margin)
PO (PO is totally wearing up)
SLD
PSL (those guys just simplu won't dissapear)

Margin between SLD and PSL probably will be rather small, so it's writing on the wall now

Under:

Solidarna Polska (seceeding from PiS was the dumbest idea ever)
Twój Ruch (Palikot just can't regain his momentum from 2011)
KNP (Korwin, like Paul, receives great hype from kids on the internet, but that is hardly enough. Many of his trolls won't move their butts to actually vote)
Polska Razem (likewise, seceeding from PO was pretty silly too)
Ruch Narodowy (lol fascists)
Greens (Very sadly, ran a great campaign, but are very underfinanced and underreported)


On European level, I expect Socialists overtaking EPP

[Tender Branson]

My France prediction:

24% FN
21% UMP
17% PS
10% MoDem
10% Greens
  8% Left
10% Others

My Spain prediction:

34% PP
30% PSOE
11% IU
  7% UPyD
  6% CEU
  4% EPDD
  8% Others

My Poland prediction:

31% PO
30% PiS
14% SLD
  6% PSL
  5% E+TR
  5% KNP
  9% Others

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm not making a call on percentages but the order in the UK will go UKIP, Labour, Tory, Green, LibDem.

I'm becoming a little bit more optimistic that Labour will pip the purple peril for first.  The polls are all over the place, but recently more of them have shown a small Labour lead, and I think it's quite likely that UKIP will lose a percentage point or two of their more gullible voters to "An Independence From Europe".

Reflecting on the local results, I'm feeling a bit more optimistic that Labour could just about do the impossible and slide past UKIP. I'm looking at the 'An Independence from Europe effect', a weak UKIP result in Scotland, a sort've weak result in Wales and, as with the locals, an under-performance in London. Have to wonder what the effect of many of their strong councils in the South not being up on Thursday will have, compared to very strong showings for Labour in Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, etc...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is better to be pessimistic and be surprised in a good way than optimistic and surprised in a bad way.

Meh. Labour will have more MEPs than last time no matter what.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

My prediction for Sweden's 20 seats.

Social Democrats - 30,2% (+5,8) - 7 (+1)
Moderate Party - 20,7% (+1,9) - 5 (+1)
Green Party - 14,2% (+3,2) - 3 (+1)
Liberal People's Party - 9,0% (-4,6) - 2 (-1)
Left Party - 6,0% (+0,3) - 1 (nc)
Sweden Democrats - 4,5% (+1,2) - 1 (+1)
Feminist Initiative - 4,4% (+2,2) - 1 (+1)
Centre - 3,6% (-1,9) - 0 (-1)
Christian Democrats - 3,5% (-1,2) - 0 (-1)
Pirate - 3,0% (-4,3) - 0 (-2)
others - 0,9

And here is mine:

Social Democrats - 26,8% (+2,4) - 6 (+/-)
Moderate Party - 19,3% (+0,5) - 4 (+/-)
Green Party - 15,3% (+4,3) - 3 (+1)
Liberal People's Party - 8,7% (-4,9) - 2 (-1)
Left Party - 7,0% (+1,3) - 2 (+1)
Sweden Democrats - 6,6% (+3,3) - 1 (+1)
Centre Party - 4,6% (-0,9) - 1 (+/-)
Feminist Initiative - 4,3% (+2,1) - 1 (+1)
Christian Democrats - 3,6% (-1,1) - 0 (-1)
Pirate Party - 2,5% (-4,6) - 0 (-2)
June List - 0,9% (-2,7) - 0 (+/-)
others - 0,4

I was closer.

Though we both made horrible predictions in retrospect.

[SPQR]

My predictions for Italy

PD 33,4%
M5S 26,5%
Forza Italia 18,6%
NCD+UDC 5,3%
Lega Nord 5,1% 

BELOW 4% THRESHOLD   
Fratelli d'Italia 3,7% 
Lista Tsipras 3,4%   
Scelta Europea 2,6% 
Italia dei Valori 0,8% 
Verdi 0,5%
Others 0,3%

Ahahahah...man was I wrong.

[Antonio the Sixth]

My predictions for Italy

PD 33,4%
M5S 26,5%
Forza Italia 18,6%
NCD+UDC 5,3%
Lega Nord 5,1% 

BELOW 4% THRESHOLD   
Fratelli d'Italia 3,7% 
Lista Tsipras 3,4%   
Scelta Europea 2,6% 
Italia dei Valori 0,8% 
Verdi 0,5%
Others 0,3%

Ahahahah...man was I wrong.

I guess it's one of those times when you can be happy for being wrong.

[Tender Branson]

My Germany prediction:

36.1% CDU/CSU
25.9% SPD
10.2% Greens
  7.7% Left
  7.1% AfD
  3.3% FDP
  2.2% Pirates
  7.5% Others

35.3% CDU/CSU
27.3% SPD
10.7% Greens
  7.4% Left
  7.0% AfD
  3.4% FDP
  1.4% Pirates
  7.5% Others

...

Not all too bad ...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is their a breakdown of votes by constituency? I want to see what seats UKIP won...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Oh f'ck it, I'll do one of these for Ireland - MoE: 100%

Dublin: 1 Fine Gael, 1 Sinn Fein, 1 Independent (Nessa Childers)

In practice, the last seat could be anyone, but as Childers is the only candidate I can consider voting for unironically and polls - those require massive salt for sure - indicate she's doing much better than I expected then why not? Independents are likely to do very well. Sinn Fein can't be guaranteed for a seat either)

South: 2 Fine Gael 1 Sinn Fein 1 Fianna Fail

This looks very likely, the only one in doubt is the last Fine Gael seat and if they do win two, who will it be: Clune or Harris? The former currently looks the most likely which means no by-election in Wicklow . The only possible outside challenger is the Independent Diarmuid O'Flynn, journalist and anti-austerity activist but he looks a bit too far behind at this stage.

Midland-North West: 1 Fine Gael 1 Sinn Fein 2 Independents (Flanagan and Harkin)

Ok... this is something of a ballsy prediction with Fianna Fail actually losing a seat but this one is the hardest to call. It's basically 4 from 5 between FG, SF, FF and the two independents and I think any of them could fall out. The two independents have the disadvantage of being from the same area of the country (Roscommon and Sligo respectively) but both have high profile and Harkin has been an MEP for a decade now. Harkin, in particular, is likely to attract the soft-left vote which is deserting Labour en masse while Flanagan is more likely to attract more general protest voters. Despite running an unknown, this seat contains Sinn Fein's strongest areas and they should be in and despite the government being very unpopular, I really don't think they are doing so badly as to go seatless in a constituency like this. So it's between Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher of Fianna Fail and Luke 'Ming' Flanagan for the last seat. My money is on Ming but this is liable to be totally wrong.

Gentleman, and admittedly this is dependent on the results of the Midlands-North West recount, I accept my accolades....

although I did underestimate Lynn Boylan and Ming it seems

[Diouf]

Denmark prediction

DF 26.6 % 3 seats
Liberals 22.5 % 3
Social Democrats 20.7 % 3
People's Movement against the EU 8.1 % 1
SF 7.1% 1
Conservatives 6.4 % 1
Social Liberals 6.2 % 1
Liberal Alliance 2.4 % 0

Unified patent court referendum
61.8 % yes
38.2 % no

DF 26.6% 4 seats
Social Democrats 19.1% 3
Liberals 16.7% 2
SF 11% 1
Conservatives 9.1% 1
People's Movement against the EU 8.1% 1
Social Liberals 6.5% 1
Liberal Alliance 2.9% 0

Unified patent court
60.45% yes
36.19% no

A quite okay prediction. The DF and People's movement predictions were spot on and the Social Liberals and the Liberal Alliance were not far away either. I underestimated the significance of the more popular and well-known candidates from SF and the Conservatives, who took a lot of voters from the Social Democrats and the Liberals respectively. In general, I overestimated the centre-right pact as I thought the centre-left pact looked more likely to lose a seat to DF, while in the end it was the Liberals who lost that seat. A lot probably depended on the scandal regarding the Liberal leader, which might have kept Liberal voters at home or turned more towards the Liberal Alliance or even the centre-left parties. In the end, the Liberals would have only needed a few thousand votes to retain their third seat.
The unified patent court referendum was almost like predicted; I didn't include blanks in the prediction.

[SPQR]

My predictions for Italy

PD 33,4%
M5S 26,5%
Forza Italia 18,6%
NCD+UDC 5,3%
Lega Nord 5,1% 

BELOW 4% THRESHOLD   
Fratelli d'Italia 3,7% 
Lista Tsipras 3,4%   
Scelta Europea 2,6% 
Italia dei Valori 0,8% 
Verdi 0,5%
Others 0,3%

Ahahahah...man was I wrong.

I guess it's one of those times when you can be happy for being wrong.

Absolutely...and at the time I thought I was being overly optimistic