Can Republicans Ever Win Statewide in California Again?

[CountyTy90]

I'm torn on this subject.

As a former Republican and seeing how the state used to vote, I hold out hope that it could.

However, looking over the most recent elections in the state, it just seems harder and harder to imagine a Republican winning statewide anytime soon.

On the flip side, Kamala Harris (the Democrat's favorite Democrat in California it seems like) almost lost to an old white guy in 2010! I still can't believe Steve Cooley almost won in 2010.

So what do you guys think?

To me... the demographic shifts seem too much to compete with. The state now has more Hispanics than whites.

[ElectionsGuy]

They could, its just getting increasingly harder and more unlikely.

[sg0508]

The answer is yes, but the fact that they got swept down the ballot in 2010, in a very strong GOP year has to be disconcerting. Again.  When your state isn't "white" anymore and your party doesn't realize that, forget about it.  The immigration issue is also a killer.  Pete Wilson was a successful governor, but the immigration law changes starting in '98 (I believe) was the beginning of his end and the GOP's end there.  Later that year, Boxer beat Fong, Davis swamped Lungren and it's been all Democrats ever since.

That being said, the GOP can win statewide races there, but they need to start with races down the ballot, which have been unsuccessful lately.   The big chance they had (outside of Arnold's win obviously) was the '02 gubernatorial race.  Riordan was going to be the GOP's nominee and could have beaten Davis, but Davis was smart and realized this.  He ran ads against Riordan (from L.A.) and Simon became the nominee who lost the race. 

[Maxwell]

In a wave year, against a weak candidate, yes. Kamala Harris was not weak, so even though Steve Cooley was surprisingly strong, he did not win.

[Kushahontas]

If they radically alter their stances, sure

[CountyTy90]

The answer is yes, but the fact that they got swept down the ballot in 2010, in a very strong GOP year has to be disconcerting. Again.  When your state isn't "white" anymore and your party doesn't realize that, forget about it.  The immigration issue is also a killer.  Pete Wilson was a successful governor, but the immigration law changes starting in '98 (I believe) was the beginning of his end and the GOP's end there.  Later that year, Boxer beat Fong, Davis swamped Lungren and it's been all Democrats ever since.

That being said, the GOP can win statewide races there, but they need to start with races down the ballot, which have been unsuccessful lately.   The big chance they had (outside of Arnold's win obviously) was the '02 gubernatorial race.  Riordan was going to be the GOP's nominee and could have beaten Davis, but Davis was smart and realized this.  He ran ads against Riordan (from L.A.) and Simon became the nominee who lost the race. 

I wrote a paper last year in college that looked at why the Republicans fell from grace as I put it.

I think the 80's were really their height. It was a great decade for them. Duke was the governor, they had Wilson in the Senate, Reagan in Washington, and Orange County was voting +60% Repub in almost every election. It just seems to me like those days are over for good.

Just look at the places they used to at least even be competitive in...

Bush slightly won Monterey County in '88, won Orange and San Diego by large margins, Riverside and San Bernardino now swing to the Democrats slightly, Contra Costa is basically off limits, as is Sacramento, Fresno is getting there, Ventura as well, Santa Barbara is almost gone for them... like... what left do they have? Where could their votes come from?

I think that the '94 ballot initiative really cost them. Among other factors.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Speaking as a left wing California Democrat, no. Not without candidates like Arnold, and let's hope CA learned from that.

As Republicans have fallen out of favor in urban/suburban areas, what's left is a state GOP that's dominated by rednecks and hicks (s/o Tim Donnelly) from the central valley, eastern desert, and sparsely populated north-eastern forests.

Orange County alone can't offset those areas, especially because Orange County is trending Democratic (even though it's still pretty Republican overall). I think it went for McCain in '08 something like 50-48, which is an eye-poppingly tiny margin for a county that usually goes by 10-15 to the Republicans. I can't remember exactly, but I think the gap in 2012 only widened by 3 or so.

Republican strongholds in the central valley are being chipped away at as Hispanics migrate farther north into the rural farming communities. I think Fresno county flipped in 2008 and stayed blue in 2012, which was a surprise.

The CA GOP is getting more conservative as the moderates make up less and less of the party. In what has been said over and over for the national GOP, the only way Republicans will win again is if they appeal to more people. Of course the CA GOP is doing the opposite in this ridiculously urbanized state.

Usually, what's left of the "establishment" will nominate some random businessperson (Meg Whitman, Carly, Emken, Kashkari) to try to appeal to non-Republicans with a big LOL as a result.

The final nail in the coffin will be OC flipping blue, and when Issa, Rohrabacher, and [currently] Campbell's House districts no longer R strongholds. Give us a decade or two. That's, of course, if dynamics don't change within the state and national GOP.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans will need to redefine themselves from what they are now to have a chance in California. They will need to attract middle-class Latinos whom Democrats get because of the anti-intellectualism of the Republican Party. Middle-class Latinos heavily associate such success as they have with formal education.

[Хahar 🤔]

Harris was and is an outspoken left-winger and Cooley was an excellent candidate and 2010 was a nominally Republican year and Cooley still couldn't win. Democrats won't hold every elective office in the state for perpetuity, but it's hard to see what path a Republican would have to victory.

[windjammer]

The problem for the California Republican Party is that they are definitely too conservative for this state. Pete Wilson has definitely destroyed any chance for the Republican Party to stay competitive with the latino community for a while. (Jeb Bush for instance in Florida was much more moderate than him).

But the biggest advantage they could have is the CA democratic party. Even if there are some moderates who are still alive, like Feinstein, Brown,... They will soon retire and I'm sure they will be replaced by much more progressive democrats than them

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Speaking as a left wing California Democrat, no. Not without candidates like Arnold, and let's hope CA learned from that.

Why would you want another Arnold? He was a terrible governor.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Yes, in the right climate.  Same goes for nearly every other Dem-leaning state.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Speaking as a left wing California Democrat, no. Not without candidates like Arnold, and let's hope CA learned from that.

Why would you want another Arnold? He was a terrible governor.

"Let's hope CA learned from that."

[free my dawg]

If Democrats can win in Wyoming then I don't see why not.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If Democrats can win in Wyoming then I don't see why not.

Speaking of Democrats in Wyoming, when Freudenthal was governor and there was a vacant senate seat, why didn't he appoint a Democrat?

[KingSweden]

If Democrats can win in Wyoming then I don't see why not.

Speaking of Democrats in Wyoming, when Freudenthal was governor and there was a vacant senate seat, why didn't he appoint a Democrat?

State law, I'd imagine.

[Joe Republic]

If Democrats can win in Wyoming then I don't see why not.

Speaking of Democrats in Wyoming, when Freudenthal was governor and there was a vacant senate seat, why didn't he appoint a Democrat?

The governor can only appoint someone from a list of three people provided by the party of the vacating senator.

[CountyTy90]

Does the new way of voting in California (top two primary) hurt or help Republicans?

I can kind of see both sides of the argument...

Good because they might be able to drive up their vote in formerly Republican areas, like San Bernardino, Riverside, Orange, and San Diego counties, among other places, and it takes away third party candidates who always seem collectively to get more than 4% of the vote each time.

However, with there only being two candidates, the vote for Democrats might be driven up in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County.

So I don't know yet if it could help or hamper their efforts.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Does the new way of voting in California (top two primary) hurt or help Republicans?

I can kind of see both sides of the argument...

Good because they might be able to drive up their vote in formerly Republican areas, like San Bernardino, Riverside, Orange, and San Diego counties, among other places, and it takes away third party candidates who always seem collectively to get more than 4% of the vote each time.

However, with there only being two candidates, the vote for Democrats might be driven up in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County.

So I don't know yet if it could help or hamper their efforts.

Hard to say. In some areas that are ludicrously one party, it seems like it would naturally hurt the other party when the other can't get on the ballot. But I think a lot of people credit the installation of the jungle primary in Louisiana as a major contribution to the rise of Republicans in that state.

I guess in more purple/swingy areas, it just depends on a case by case basis. Maybe there were cases of Democrats winning in areas where the libertarian would siphon enough votes from the Republican, but I don't think that was too widespread. Most areas are still solidly one party, and it doesn't matter if one or two candidates from that party appear on the general election ballot.

[Mr. Morden]

Does the new way of voting in California (top two primary) hurt or help Republicans?

I can kind of see both sides of the argument...

Good because they might be able to drive up their vote in formerly Republican areas, like San Bernardino, Riverside, Orange, and San Diego counties, among other places, and it takes away third party candidates who always seem collectively to get more than 4% of the vote each time.

However, with there only being two candidates, the vote for Democrats might be driven up in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County.

So I don't know yet if it could help or hamper their efforts.

Hard to say. In some areas that are ludicrously one party, it seems like it would naturally hurt the other party when the other can't get on the ballot. But I think a lot of people credit the installation of the jungle primary in Louisiana as a major contribution to the rise of Republicans in that state.

I guess in more purple/swingy areas, it just depends on a case by case basis. Maybe there were cases of Democrats winning in areas where the libertarian would siphon enough votes from the Republican, but I don't think that was too widespread. Most areas are still solidly one party, and it doesn't matter if one or two candidates from that party appear on the general election ballot.

I don't think that's the issue.  I'd assume that in any remotely competitive district, Top Two would give you 1 Democrat and 1 Republican in the runoff most of the time.  There'll be exceptions, but that'll happen in most cases, just as it does with a normal primary system.

The issue then is whether a standard partisan primary draws a different set of voters, and thus produces different nominees, then you tend to get in Top Two.  Now that CA has Top Two, do you see different levels of turnout in the "primary" stage of the election than you saw in the partisan primaries of the past?  Do you see a different mix of voters?  I'd think that with greater ease of cross-party voting, you might get more moderate candidates with Top Two, but I don't know if it's worked that way.

[MATTROSE94]

I honestly doubt it due to the left-wing political climate and racial make-up in the state. Even if Hugo Chavez came back from the death and ran as a Democrat in California, he would end up winning handily.

[illegaloperation]

I live in the eastern desert. The people in my community are the one who keep voting for Tim Donnelly. Here, when people talk about Obama, it's usually with a lot of profanity.

When I drive to the coast, it's like going from Arkansas to New Jersey.

The CA Republicans are doing a great job representing my area, but the bridge to the rest of the state may be too great.

Funny story:
Once when I was still in high school, it rained so much that the dirt roads were washed away, so I rode a horse to school.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I honestly doubt it due to the left-wing political climate and racial make-up in the state. Even if Hugo Chavez came back from the death and ran as a Democrat in California, he would end up winning handily.

We're not that Democratic. Arnold wasn't the only Republican to win statewide by double digits in 2006.

[Suburbia]

Yes. The GOP can win in California if they have a good message. A Pence or a Thune could make California (especially San Diego suburbs) in play, in my opinion.

[CountyTy90]

In reference to an earlier post on this discussion, about how powerful the Repubs were in California...

Doesn't the party see their old successes and think "what the f@#$ have we done?!?!"

And wouldn't that make them wake up and change?

I mean... Deukmejian got above 40% in Alameda County. Let me say that again... Deukmejian got above 40% in Alameda County. Not only that; in '86 he almost won the damn county!

I think after the '98 elections they should have been scrambling to change and especially after 2002.

I think 2003 gave them a boost in their self indulgence, reinforced in 2006, but 2008 and 2010 should have knocked them off their feet.

And I'm not trying to say this party is in shambles, can never win again, etc. Quite the contrary, I would love to see California be competitive again.