Does it seem weird to you that the most of the field will have announced…...

[Mr. Morden]

Does it seem weird to you that the most of the field will have announced their candidacy within the next year?  One year from today, most of the eventual candidates will have announced, and many non-candidates will have bowed out.  As a reminder, from last time:

Here is the timeline:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012_timeline#2011

If we're counting the formation of an exploratory committee as being equivalent to running (which it basically is), then it was (all dates are 2011):

January: Cain
February: nobody
March: Gingrich, Pawlenty, Roemer
April: Romney, Santorum, Johnson, Paul
May: Huntsman
June: Bachmann
July: McCotter
August: Perry

Heck, there was a GOP primary debate (only attended by 5 candidates) on May 5, 2011, so it's not out of the question that there'll be a 2016 debate within the next year.

[IceSpear]

This reminds me about how all the Palin cultists were desperately hoping she'd jump in well into October...

[Joe Biden 2020]

It feels weird, but it is also very exciting as a political junkie.  I expect we'll have a few second- or third-tier candidates announce within the next six months before the midterms.

[Mr. Morden]

It feels weird, but it is also very exciting as a political junkie.  I expect we'll have a few second- or third-tier candidates announce within the next six months before the midterms.

Maybe, maybe not.  No one announced before the midterms in 2010, so we'll just have to wait and see.  However, we should get two huge clues out of Wisconsin in November:

-Is Walker reelected?
-Does Ryan go for (and win) the Ways & Means Committee chairmanship?  (If yes, then he's probably not running for prez.)

[NewYorkExpress]

It feels weird, but it is also very exciting as a political junkie.  I expect we'll have a few second- or third-tier candidates announce within the next six months before the midterms.

Maybe, maybe not.  No one announced before the midterms in 2010, so we'll just have to wait and see.  However, we should get two huge clues out of Wisconsin in November:

-Is Walker reelected?
-Does Ryan go for (and win) the Ways & Means Committee chairmanship?  (If yes, then he's probably not running for prez.)

I'd argue that if Walker loses a close race, he still could run, as he'd be free of most FEC regulations, and he'd still have a presumable base of support. (He'd probably have to lose by three or fewer for this scenario to be anywhere near realistic though)

[BaconBacon96]

I'm looking forward to it.

[Indy Texas]

Does this mean the first "debates" are going to start around May 2015?

[Mr. Morden]

Does this mean the first "debates" are going to start around May 2015?

Judging by recent election cycles, yes.  (In the 2004, 2008, and 2012 campaigns, we had primary debates in either April or May of the year before the election.)

However, it might be different this time around, as the RNC is trying to clamp down on the number of debates (though whether the candidates actually go along with this is unclear).

And on the Democratic side, if Clinton's running, there might not even be any debates.  Will she agree to debate Sanders and Schweitzer if she's leading them by about 50 points in the polls?  Even if she does, she won't do so as early as May 2015.

[Mr. Morden]

As for who else might conceivably declare their intentions before the end of 2014…..Bush says he'll decide by the end of this year.  Bolton is also a strong possibility to declare relatively early.  The only thing he's doing these days besides appearing on Fox News is working on his PAC, which is aimed at raising money for GOP candidates in the midterms.  Once the midterms are over, he'll have nothing left to do.  Whereas other potential candidates who don't hold office (like Carson and Santorum) have other gigs that they'd have to give up if they run for prez, so they'll string out their decisions until 2015.

On the Democratic side, my guess is that HRC won't actually announce this year, but she might give herself a public deadline for a decision (some time early in 2015), aimed at holding off others from entering the race.

[Bull Moose Base]

It feels weird, but it is also very exciting as a political junkie.  I expect we'll have a few second- or third-tier candidates announce within the next six months before the midterms.

Maybe, maybe not.  No one announced before the midterms in 2010, so we'll just have to wait and see.  However, we should get two huge clues out of Wisconsin in November:

-Is Walker reelected?
-Does Ryan go for (and win) the Ways & Means Committee chairmanship?  (If yes, then he's probably not running for prez.)

I'd argue that if Walker loses a close race, he still could run, as he'd be free of most FEC regulations, and he'd still have a presumable base of support. (He'd probably have to lose by three or fewer for this scenario to be anywhere near realistic though)

I really don't think Walker 2016 survives a re-election loss this year. The Kochs will consider him damaged goods and look elsewhere not to mention the less conservative, big donors. If he loses narrowly, he probably just bets on a re-match, not so narrowly, he cashes in like Pawlenty. This is presuming he doesn't end up like McDonnell.

[Maxwell]

Considering how much attentions been paid to this election, i feel like one of the lesser candidates might announce in December of this year.