NYT: If Landrieu has a path to victory, it's incredibly narrow

[JRP1994]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/08/upshot/mary-landrieus-very-difficult-re-election.html?_r=0

"To win in 2014, with lower black turnout likely, Ms. Landrieu cannot afford any additional decline in her support among white voters. But 2014 promises far more challenging conditions, and her losses among white voters could easily surpass those from 2008, especially if one assumes that she was near her ceiling in the New Orleans area. Holding onto her territory will be hard enough. For instance, Ms. Landrieu easily won Jefferson Parish, encompassing most of New Orleans’s suburbs, which never voted for Mr. Clinton or President Carter, and which never previously came close to supporting Ms. Landrieu.

All considered, it is unclear whether there is still a path for her to reach 50 percent — and while a third-party candidate might allow her to squeak by in another state, Louisiana’s runoff system requires her to clear 50 percent to win re-election.

The limited polling data confirms that 2014 is not 2008. The only live interview surveys contacting voters with cellphones are from Southern Media and Opinion Research, which found Ms. Landrieu with just 41 percent of the vote in November, and from The New York Times/Kaiser Family Foundation, which found Ms. Landrieu at 42 percent. If there’s still a way for Ms. Landrieu to win, she has a long way to go."

[Miles]

The things I've been saying here, she needs:

1) 30% of the white vote.
2) Get blacks to make up at least 28-29% of the electorate.

She can lose Jefferson Parish this time, but only by 6-7 points at most. Katrina helped her carry it by 6 in 2008. While it won't be as big an issue this year, people there still remember her work on the recovery effort.

Generally, the parishes were she had the steepest drops in white support are losing population or casting less votes relative to the rest of the state.

[windjammer]

Yes, seriously, the LA race is scaring me more and more.

[henster]

Sadly I think Landrieu's luck has run out barring a Cassidy implosion I am just not seeing a path of victory for her atm.

[7,052,770]

All I ask is that she proudly go down swinging for Obama instead of running against him, losing anyway, and creating rifts that bring down the party nationwide, like all those idiots did in 2010.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Uh, she was leading by 24 in the most recent poll.

[SPC]

Uh, she was leading by 24 in the most recent poll.

That was a jungle primary poll

[moderatevoter]

As SPC said, that was a jungle primary poll. She has been down in every recent run-off poll that I can remember.

[henster]

If she loses maybe Clinton gives her a cabinet position a few years down the road if she wins the Presidency, I could see her at the Dep. of Energy.

[ElectionsGuy]

She needs to get probably 25% or more of the white vote. She's probably losing support in Acadania and NoLA too. She needs to maximize New Orleans and at least come very close to winning Jefferson Parish.

[SPQR]

Wouldn't black turnout go up for a runoff with national coverage?

[badgate]

Wouldn't black turnout go up for a runoff with national coverage?

Yeah but white turnout would get closer to presidential levels.
I mean, Obama could help her with black turnout, but he would hurt her with everyone else.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

As SPC said, that was a jungle primary poll. She has been down in every recent run-off poll that I can remember.

She has led in 2 of the 7 polls this year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Louisiana,_2014#Runoff

[Bandit3 the Worker]

As SPC said, that was a jungle primary poll. She has been down in every recent run-off poll that I can remember.

She has led in 2 of the 7 polls this year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Louisiana,_2014#Runoff

The last runoff poll by any of the major pollsters was in February, and she was winning that.

[Oakvale]

Fortunately she looks set for a humiliating defeat. Good riddance, too.

[windjammer]

Fortunately she looks set for a humiliating defeat. Good riddance, too.

Why?

[windjammer]

Fortunately she looks set for a humiliating defeat. Good riddance, too.

And seriously, no one is saying "she looks set for a humiliating defeat". No one has said she's going Blanche.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Landrieu is there to ensure in case Begich or Hagen lose, the GOP will have to go through her to take control. And why would she lose, she has a black base of voters that her brother Mitch can use to save her.

[Talleyrand]

Fortunately she looks set for a humiliating defeat. Good riddance, too.

And seriously, no one is saying "she looks set for a humiliating defeat". No one has said she's going Blanche.

It's pretty clear that the numbers for her to win aren't there. Black turnout may increase slightly, but she's going to drop pretty steeply with Whites- plus she's running in 2014, which is shaping up to be a pretty good Republican year, unlike 2008, which was the best Democratic year since Watergate.

Even then, she barely edged out a win. I know some on here seem to think she has extraordinary political skills (which I don't see evidence for), but she's finished.

[windjammer]

Fortunately she looks set for a humiliating defeat. Good riddance, too.

And seriously, no one is saying "she looks set for a humiliating defeat". No one has said she's going Blanche.

It's pretty clear that the numbers for her to win aren't there. Black turnout may increase slightly, but she's going to drop pretty steeply with Whites- plus she's running in 2014, which is shaping up to be a pretty good Republican year, unlike 2008, which was the best Democratic year since Watergate.

Even then, she barely edged out a win. I know some on here seem to think she has extraordinary political skills (which I don't see evidence for), but she's finished.

She's not finished.
Please Talleyrand, don't join the hysterical folk of this forum who said 2 month that Pryor was going Blanche. That's definitely not the case.
And Cassidy isn't clearly leading her in the run off right now.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Landrieu has replaced Pryor for the "Dooooooomed Democratic Senator" Atlas flavor of the month.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Looks like Landrieu has replaced Pryor for the "Dooooooomed Democratic Senator" Atlas flavor of the month.

Isn't that supposed to be Walsh?

[Maxwell]

Looks like Landrieu has replaced Pryor for the "Dooooooomed Democratic Senator" Atlas flavor of the month.

Isn't that supposed to be Walsh?

Well, I mean, Walsh is so doomed we don't even need to say it.

[windjammer]

Yes Icespear, some posters are going to be hysterical with Landrieu. Maybe we will have "I support Bill Cassidy because she's so awful."

-------------------------

Looks like Landrieu has replaced Pryor for the "Dooooooomed Democratic Senator" Atlas flavor of the month.

Isn't that supposed to be Walsh?

Well, I mean, Walsh is so doomed we don't even need to say it.

That's not true, and you know that. Walsh isn't so doomed. Daines has an advantage, but that doesn't mean Walsh has 0% of chance of victory.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Landrieu is 5-1 in statewide elections in Louisiana, she even has her brother, Mitch as New Orleans Mayor to bail her out.