Dewey/Warren - 319 EVTruman/Barkley - 212 EVThere are several key assumptions to my analysis. One is that the same candidates would have been the nominees of the major parties. It is likely that Dewey and Warren would have prevailed for the GOP, but Truman's selection of Barkley may well not have happened. The main assumption I make is that FDR would NOT, had he lived, have initiated the F. E. P. C. or integrated the Armed Forces as Truman did. These issues, limited as they were, provided the hubbub and furor that became the Dixiecrat movement. It is quite possible that Truman would either (A) have felt free to pick a Northern liberal Democrat after being assured that the South would stay in line, or (B) Truman may have selected a Southerner such as James F. Byrnes (D-SC) or Richard Russell (D-GA). It is also quite possible that Truman would have been a faceless VP and would not have prevailed at the Democratic National Convention.
My map represents the South and Border States, as well as states with Southern heritages, carrying for Truman, while most of the West goes to Dewey and Warren. The country was tiring of the Democrats in 1948, and only the personal unpopularity of Dewey (which was a product of the specific campaign Truman waged AS PRESIDENT) made this so. Truman would not have had the Presidential Bully Pulpit to dare the Congressional GOP to enact their platform. (Indeed, if FDR lived, there may not have been a GOP majority in both houses of Congress in 1946.)
Truman and Barkley were both Border State Democrats. Prior to the pro
