What is Hillary Clinton's Floor?

[Never]

I'm just curious what is realistically considered Hillary Clinton's worst performance in the electoral college  and popular vote in 2016, should she become the Democratic nominee for President. I'm not exactly sure how her floor would look, because it doesn't seem to be considered that much. What are your thoughts? Which Republican would she do worst against, and why would she hit the floor that you set for her? Maps would be great for this discussion.

[MadmanMotley]

Obviously there are tons of variables, and technically her floor is D.C. But barring anything major, and the Republican running an amazing campaign, etc.
Personally, the only one I see hitting this ceiling is Rand Paul if he runs his campaign right.

Rand Paul 360EV
HRC 178EV

Against a generic republican:

Generic Republican 321EV
HRC 217

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Unless the economy crashes, I don't see her doing much worse than 48% and a map that looks like this:

This would be against a generic Republican who runs a decent campaign and catches a break or two.

[Mister Mets]

Against a strong opponent in a weak economy after the combination of an effective Republican campaign and gaffes have increased her negatives.

Hillary Clinton- 183 Electoral Votes
Happy Republican - 353 Electoral Votes

Christie might be able to swing New Jersey, but that's one candidate in a very good election.

[IceSpear]

It really depends what you mean by "floor". If a day before the election, news comes out that she murdered and raped children, she'll probably lose all 50 states. Slightly more likely, if an economic collapse hits that the public blames on the Democrats, she'd probably perform around Dukakis levels.

But if we're being realistic, even if everything goes perfect for the Republicans (within the realm of reality), I can't see her doing worse than Kerry. If a Republican does beat her, it will be by a very thin margin.

[NewYorkExpress]

In terms of the popular vote I'd argue that both Clinton's floor and ceiling are further apart than any other prospective Democrat, because she will likely drive up base turnout from both parties.

At the lowest she'll likely get the 47% Romney got in 2012, while at her ceiling I'd guess she'd get roughly 55-56% of the popular vote.

[henster]

In terms of the popular vote I'd argue that both Clinton's floor and ceiling are further apart than any other prospective Democrat, because she will likely drive up base turnout from both parties.

At the lowest she'll likely get the 47% Romney got in 2012, while at her ceiling I'd guess she'd get roughly 55-56% of the popular vote.

No Democrat has gotten less than 48% of the vote since 1996 that seems to be the floor for Democratic nominees. I can't see any Democratic nominee getting less than 200 EV in this day and age and usually end up around 230-250 EV if they end up losing. And no way she wins 55-56% of the vote with how polarized things are her ceiling is probably around 53-54% PV and that's a stretch.

[BlueSwan]

And no way she wins 55-56% of the vote with how polarized things are her ceiling is probably around 53-54% PV and that's a stretch.

Nah, you're forgetting the very real possibility that the GOP nominates someone utterly unelectable (i.e. nuts). Not that I THINK the GOP will do that, but it is definitely a possibility in this political climate. The hard right is smelling blood after the failure of moderate GOP candidates like Romney and McCain.

But realistically, the GOP nominates Christie/Bush/Walker and we have the usual hyper close elections of modern times.

[Mr. Illini]

I'd say this is her firewall.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Her absolute floor?  I'd guess this:

[SWE]

Realistically, somewhere between Obama 2012 and Kerry 2004

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Same as Obama's.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

51%

[Maxwell]

Her floor is probably 46%. Her ceiling is probably 55%.

[⛄]

In case Hillary is found guilty of homicide, tax fraud and illegal parking one day before the general election, her floor will be like this:

278 : 260

[Rockefeller GOP]

In case Hillary is found guilty of homicide, tax fraud and illegal parking one day before the general election, her floor will be like this:

278 : 260

... Wow, where to begin?

[Matty]

[JRP1994]

Absolute floor if the economy crashes, Obama is caught in a scandal, Clinton runs a poor campaign, faces a Huntsmanesque Republican who picks a running mate like Paul or Rubio:

More realistic floor:

[Rockefeller GOP]

In Hillary's absolute floor, there's no way she loses New Hampshire?...  Okay.

[MATTROSE94]

I'm thinking that Hillary Clinton's floor could look like this if she runs a mediocre campaign or if the Republicans nominate a Jon Huntsman-like candidate:

[Bull Moose Base]

300?

[badgate]

Absolute floor if the economy crashes, Obama is caught in a scandal, Clinton runs a poor campaign, faces a Huntsmanesque Republican who picks a running mate like Paul or Rubio:

By "Huntsmanesque" do you mean "awful campaigner?"

[nolesfan2011]

I'd say this is her firewall.

this except switch Nevada for Michigan, and Minnesota isn't a "firewall". Also if a (popular) Christie is the 2016 GOP nominee New Jersey could be in play.  Michigan seems to vote GOP more often than Nevada these days and the Dem areas are shrinking (unlike in Nevada).

[morgieb]

Probably Obama 2012 reversed, realistically. Would need a Republican to not be completely crazy, an average campaign from her and the economy to be meh. It's plausible things can be worse, but unlikely.

[Cory]

Floor:

Ceiling: